Enhanced prediction of extreme fire weather conditions in spring using the Hot-Dry-Windy Index in Alberta, Canada

Kyle G. Elliott; Mike D. Flannigan; Cordy Tymstra

doi:10.1071/WF24015

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

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Enhanced prediction of extreme fire weather conditions in spring using the Hot-Dry-Windy Index in Alberta, Canada

Kyle G. Elliott ^A ^* , Mike D. Flannigan ^B and Cordy Tymstra ^A

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, 751 General Services Building, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada.

^B Department of Natural Resource Science, Thompson Rivers University, Kamloops, BC V2C 0C8, Canada.

^* Correspondence to: ke5@ualberta.ca

International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF24015 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF24015

Submitted: 26 January 2024 Accepted: 29 September 2024 Published: 31 October 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Background

Fire weather indices forecast fire behaviour and provide valuable information for wildland fire prevention, preparedness, and suppression. However, these indices do not directly account for atmospheric conditions aloft. The province of Alberta, Canada has experienced extreme fire weather conditions during spring for decades, leading to the continued occurrence of disastrous wildland fires.

Aims

We examined the Hot-Dry-Windy Index (HDWI) and spread days over the first 4 days of 80 large wildland fires that started in May 1990–2019 in Alberta.

Methods

HDWI values were calculated using ERA5 reanalysis data from the 1000, 975 and 950 hPa levels. Differences between HDWI distributions on spread days and non-spread days were examined using permutation tests. Initial Spread Index was also examined as it is considered an important Fire Weather Index System value for wildland fire spread during spring in Alberta.

Key results

Higher median HDWI values were observed on spread days than non-spread days, where median Initial Spread Index values showed little to no difference.

Conclusions

This analysis suggests that HDWI can contribute to the prediction of significant spring wildland fire spread in Alberta.

Implications

Forecasted HDWI and HDWI climatologies may provide additional decision support for wildland fire management agencies.

Keywords: Alberta, Canada, fire weather, HDWI, Hot-Dry-Windy Index, prediction, spring wildfires, wildfire spread, wildland fire.

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