Live trial performance of the Australian Fire Danger Rating System – Research Prototype†

S. Grootemaat; S. Matthews; B. J. Kenny; J. W. Runcie; J. J. Hollis; S. Sauvage; P. Fox-Hughes; A. Holmes

doi:10.1071/WF23143

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Live trial performance of the Australian Fire Danger Rating System – Research Prototype^†

S. Grootemaat ^A ^C , S. Matthews ^A ^D , B. J. Kenny ^A ^E , J. W. Runcie ^A , J. J. Hollis ^A ^F ^* , S. Sauvage ^B , P. Fox-Hughes

^B and A. Holmes ^A

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A New South Wales Rural Fire Service, 4 Murray Rose Avenue, Sydney Olympic Park, NSW 2127, Australia.

^B Research Program, Bureau of Meteorology, 7/111 Macquarie Street, Hobart, Tas. 7000, Australia.

^C Present address: NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service, 4PS, 12 Darcy Street, Parramatta, NSW 2150, Australia.

^D Present address: Nova Systems, 100 William Street, Woolloomooloo, NSW 2011, Australia.

^E Nature Conservation Council of NSW, Sydney, NSW 2010, Australia.

^F Present address: Department of Biodiversity, Conservation & Attractions, Brain Street, Manjimup, WA 6258, Australia.

^* Correspondence to: jennifer.hollis@dbca.wa.gov.au

International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF23143 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23143

Submitted: 11 September 2023 Accepted: 8 February 2024 Published: 28 March 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Background

The Australian Fire Danger Rating System program (AFDRS) has built a new fire danger rating system for Australia. A live trial of the system’s Research Prototype (AFDRS_RP), based on fire behaviour thresholds, was run and evaluated between October 2017 and March 2018.

Aims

Live trial results are critically analysed, and knowledge gaps and recommendations for future work discussed.

Methods

Australian bushfire experts assessed wildfires and prescribed burns across a range of vegetation types and weather conditions. Forecast fire danger ratings calculated using: (1) AFDRS_RP; and (2) Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) were compared against ratings derived by expert opinion for each evaluation fire (n = 336).

Key results

Overall performance of AFDRS_RP was superior to the FFDI/GFDI system (56 vs 43% correct), with a tendency to over-predict rather than under-predict fire potential. AFDRS_RP also demonstrated its value to assess fire danger in fuel types not conforming to current grassland or forest models; e.g. for fuels that were grouped to use mallee-heath, spinifex and shrubland fire spread models.

Conclusions

The AFDRS_RP live trial was successful, outperforming the existing operational fire danger system.

Implications

Identified improvements would further enhance AFDRS_RP performance, ensuring readiness for operational implementation.

Keywords: bushfire risk, fire behaviour, fire behaviour models, fire danger forecast, fire management, forecast system, fuel types, system evaluation.

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