A framework for defining fire danger to support fire management operations in Australia†

Jennifer J. Hollis; Stuart Matthews; Wendy R. Anderson; Miguel G. Cruz; Paul Fox-Hughes; Saskia Grootemaat; Belinda J. Kenny; Sam Sauvage

doi:10.1071/WF23141

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Previous Contents Vol 33(3)

A framework for defining fire danger to support fire management operations in Australia^†

Jennifer J. Hollis ^A ^E ^* , Stuart Matthews ^A ^F , Wendy R. Anderson ^C , Miguel G. Cruz

^D , Paul Fox-Hughes

^B , Saskia Grootemaat ^A ^G , Belinda J. Kenny ^A ^H and Sam Sauvage ^B

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A New South Wales Rural Fire Service, 4 Murray Rose Avenue, Sydney Olympic Park, NSW 2127, Australia.

^B Bureau of Meteorology, 7/111 Macquarie Street, Hobart, Tas. 7000, Australia.

^C School of Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences, University of New South Wales, Canberra at ADFA, ACT 2600, Australia.

^D CSIRO, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.

^E Present address: Department of Biodiversity, Conservation & Attractions, Brain Street, Manjimup, WA 6258 Australia.

^F Present address: Nova Systems, 100 William Street, Woolloomooloo, NSW 2011, Australia.

^G Present address: NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service, 4PS, 12 Darcy Street, Parramatta, NSW 2150, Australia.

^H Present address: Nature Conservation Council of NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

^* Correspondence to: jennifer.hollis@dbca.wa.gov.au

International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF23141 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23141

Submitted: 11 September 2023 Accepted: 8 February 2024 Published: 18 March 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Background

Development of the Australian Fire Danger Rating System began in 2017 with a project aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of a new fire danger rating system through a Research Prototype (AFDRS_RP) that accounted for variability in Australian vegetation types, was nationally applicable, modular and open to continuous improvement.

Aims

In this manuscript, we identify and define transition points and categories for the AFDRS_RP. We discuss user responses to the categorisation during a live trial evaluation of the AFDRS_RP and reflect on limitations and potential improvements.

Methods

A review of available literature, broad consultation with stakeholders and reanalysis of fire impact data were used to determine suitable thresholds for categorising fire danger within the AFDRS_RP.

Key results

Fire danger categories within the AFDRS_RP reflect transitions in fire behaviour that result in application of different fire management strategies or are associated with variation in serious consequences and impacts.

Conclusions

The AFDRS_RP incorporated the best available science, supported by a well-defined framework for categorising and defining fire danger making it suitable for application across Australian fire jurisdictions and range of fuel types.

Implications

The framework allows fire managers to assess the accuracy and appropriateness of forecasted fire danger.

Keywords: bushfire risk assessment, consequences, categorical thresholds, difficulty of suppression, fire behaviour, fire danger rating, forecast system, fuel type.

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