Register      Login
International Journal of Wildland Fire International Journal of Wildland Fire Society
Journal of the International Association of Wildland Fire
RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Future fire events are likely to be worse than climate projections indicate – these are some of the reasons why

Mika Peace https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2038-0816 A * and Lachlan McCaw B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Bureau of Meteorology, Adelaide, Australia.

B PO Box 1667, Margaret River, WA 6285, Australia.

* Correspondence to: mika.peace@bom.gov.au

International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF23138 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23138
Submitted: 4 September 2023  Accepted: 28 May 2024  Published: 19 June 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Background

Climate projections signal longer fire seasons and an increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days for much of the world including Australia.

Aims

Here we argue that heatwaves, dynamic fire–atmosphere interactions and increased fuel availability caused by drought will amplify potential fire behaviour well beyond projections based on calculations of afternoon forest fire danger derived from climate models.

Methods

We review meteorological dynamics contributing to enhanced fire behaviour during heatwaves, drawing on examples of dynamical processes driving fire behaviour during the Australian Black Summer bushfires of 2019–20.

Results

Key dynamical processes identified include: nocturnal low-level jets, deep, unstable planetary boundary layers and fire–atmosphere coupling.

Conclusions

The future scenario we contend is long windows of multi-day fire events where overnight suppression is less effective and fire perimeters will expand continuously and aggressively over multiple days and nights.

Implications

Greater overnight fire activity and multi-day events present strategic and tactical challenges for fire management agencies including having to expand resourcing for overnight work, manage personnel fatigue and revise training to identify conditions conducive to unusually active fire behaviour overnight. Effective messaging will be critical to minimise accidental fire ignition during heatwaves and to alert the community to the changing fire environment

Keywords: Australia, Black Summer, boundary layer, climate projections, fire, heatwave, meteorology, plume dynamics.

References

Abram NJ, Henley BJ, Sen Gupta A, Lippmann T, Clarke H, Dowdy A, Sharples J, Nolan R, Zhang T, Wooster M, Wurtzel J, Meissner K, Pitman A, Ukkola A, Murphy B, Tapper N, Boer M (2021) Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia. Communications Earth & Environment 2, 8.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Afroz M, Chen G, Anandhi A (2023) Drought and heatwave associated compound extremes: a review of hotspots, variables, parameters, drivers, impacts, and analysis frameworks. Frontiers in Earth Science 10, 914437.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

AghaKouchak A, Huning LS, Sadegh M, Qin Y, Markonis Y, Vahedifard F, Love CA, Mishra A, Mehran A, Obringer R, Hjelmstad A, Pallickara S, Jiwa S, Hanel M, Zhao Y, Pendergrass AG, Arabi M, Davis SJ, Ward PJ, Svoboda M, Pulwarty R, Kreibich H (2023) Toward impact-based monitoring of drought and its cascading hazards. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 4(8), 582-595.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Balch JK, Abatzoglou JT, Joseph MB, Koontz MJ, Mahood AL, McGlinchy J, Cattau ME, Williams AP (2022) Warming weakens the night-time barrier to global fire. Nature 602, 442-448.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Blackadar AK (1957) Boundary layer wind maxima and their significance for the growth of nocturnal inversions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 38, 283-290.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Brown T, Mills G, Harris S, Podnar D, Reinbold H, Fearon M (2015) A fire weather climatology dataset for Victoria. Final Report to the Department of Environment, Water, Land and Planning. 129 pp. Available at http://cefa.dri.edu/Publications/publications_home.php [verified 9 November 2023]

Brown T, Mills G, Harris S, Podnar D, Reinbold H, Fearon M (2016) A bias corrected WRF mesoscale fire weather dataset for Victoria, Australia 1972-2012. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 66, 281-313.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Bureau of Meteorology (2020) Special climate statement 73 – extreme heat and fire weather in December 2019 and January 2020. Available at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs73.pdf

Byram GM (1954) Atmospheric conditions related to blowup fires. (USDA Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station Paper No. 35: Asheville, NC)

Caccamo G, Chisholm LA, Bradstock RA, Puotinen ML (2012) Using remotely‐sensed fuel connectivity patterns as a tool for fire danger monitoring. Geophysical Research Letters 39, L01302.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Chiodi AM, Potter BE, Larkin NK (2021) Multi-decadal change in Western US nighttime vapor pressure deficit. Geophysical Research Letters 48, e2021GL092830.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Clabo D (2022) Why are we still using the Haines Index? Available at https://youtu.be/zpwgxMMzjO4, https://youtu.be/BuiKqm9hP7s at https://wildfiretoday.com/2022/06/10/why-are-we-still-using-the-haines-index [verified 9 November 2023]

Clarke H, Evans JP (2019) Exploring the future change space for fire weather in southeast Australia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 136, 513-527.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Copernicus Report (2022) European State of the Climate Summary 2022. Available at https://climate.copernicus.eu/sites/default/files/custom-uploads/ESOTC2022/PR/ESOTCsummary2022_final.pdf [verified 9 November 2023]

Cowan T, Purich A, Perkins S, Pezza A, Boschat G, Sadler K (2014) More frequent, longer, and hotter heatwaves for Australia in the twenty-first century. Journal of Climate 27, 5851-5871.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Cruz MG, Gould JS, Alexander ME, Sullivan AL, McCaw WL, Matthews S (2015) Empirical-based models for predicting head-fire rate of spread in Australian fuel types. Australian Forestry 78, 118-158.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Hólm EV, Isaksen L, Kållberg P, Köhler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge‐Sanz BM, Morcrette J-J, Park B-K, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thépaut J-N, Vitart F (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 137, 553-597.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Delage PD, Power SB (2020) The impact of global warming and the El Niño‑Southern Oscillation on seasonal precipitation extremes in Australia. Climate Dynamics 54, 4367-4377.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Deng X, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, Alexander LV, Stark C (2022) Projected changes and time of emergence of temperature extremes over Australia in CMIP5 and CMIP6. Earth’s Future 10, e2021EF002645.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Di Virgilio G, Evans JP, Blake SAP, Armstrong M, Dowdy AJ, Sharples J, McRae R (2019) Climate change increases the potential for extreme wildfires. Geophysical Research Letters 46, 8517-8526.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Domeisen DIV, Eltahir EAB, Fischer EM, Knutti R, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, Schär C, Seneviratne SI, Weisheimer A, Wernli H (2023) Prediction and projection of heatwaves. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 4, 36-50.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Dowdy AJ (2018) Climatological variability of fire weather in Australia. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 57, 221-234.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Dowdy AJ (2020) Seamless climate change projections and seasonal predictions for bushfires in Australia. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 70, 120-138.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Dowdy AJ, Mills GA (2012) Atmospheric and fuel moisture characteristics associated with lightning-attributed fires. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 51, 2025-2037.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Dowdy AJ, Ye H, Pepler A, Thatcher M, Osbrough SL, Evans JP, DiVirgilio G, McCarthy N (2019) Future changes in extreme weather and pyroconvection risk factors for Australian wildfires. Nature. Scientific Reports 9, 10073.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Ellis PFM (2015) The likelihood of ignition of dry-eucalypt forest litter by firebrands. International Journal of Wildland Fire 24, 225-235.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Falster GM, Wright NM, Abram NJ, Ukkola AM, Henley BJ (2024) Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 28, 1383-1401.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Freeborn PH, Jolly MW, Cochrane MA, Roberts G (2022) Large wildfire driven increases in nighttime fire activity observed across CONUS from 2003–2020. Remote Sensing of Environment 268, 112777.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Fromm MD, Tupper A, Rosenfeld D, Servranckx R, McRae R (2006) Violent pyro-convective storm devastates Australia’s capital and pollutes the stratosphere. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L05815.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Fromm M, Servranckx R, Stocks BJ, Peterson DA (2022) Understanding the critical elements of the pyrocumulonimbus storm sparked by high-intensity wildland fire. Communications Earth and Environment 3, 243.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Gazol A, Camarero JJ (2022) Compound climate events increase tree drought mortality across European forests. Science of The Total Environment 816, 151604.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Groom PK, Lamont BB, Leighton S, Leighton P, Burrows C (2004) Heat damage in sclerophylls is influenced by their leaf properties and plant environment. Ecoscience 11, 94-101.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Guion A, Turquety S, Polcher J, Pennel R, Bastin S, Arsouze T (2022) Droughts and heatwaves in the Western Mediterranean: impact on vegetation and wildfires using the coupled WRF-ORCHIDEE regional model (RegIPSL). Climate Dynamics 58, 2881-2903.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Haines DA (1988) A lower atmospheric severity index for wildland fires. National Weather Digest 13, 23-27.
| Google Scholar |

Harris S, Lucas C (2019) Understanding the variability of Australian fire weather between 1973 and 2017. PLoS One 14, e0222328.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Hersbach H, Bell B, Berrisford P, Hirahara S, Horányi A, Muñoz-Sabater J, et al. (2020) The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 146(730), 1999-2049.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Hollis JJ, Matthews S, Fox-Hughes P, Grootemaat S, Heemstra S, Kenny BJ, Sauvage S (2024) Introduction to the Australian Fire Danger Rating System. International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF23140.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Holton JR (1967) The diurnal boundary layer wind oscillation above sloping terrain. Tellus 19, 199-205.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Inspector-General for Emergency Management (2020) Inquiry into the 2019–20 Victorian fire season. Phase 1 Community and sector preparedness for and response to the 2019–20 fire season. Available at https://www.igem.vic.gov.au/publications/publications/inquiry-into-the-2019-20-victorian-fire-season-phase-1-reportInspector-General for Emergency Management, Victorian Government [verified 28 December 2023]

IPCC (2023) Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. In ‘Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’. (Eds Core Writing Team, H Lee, J Romero) pp. 35–115. (IPCC: Geneva, Switzerland) 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647

Jones MW, Abatzoglou JT, Veraverbeke S, Andela N, Lasslop G, Forkel M, Smith AJP, Burton C, Betts RA, van der Werf GR, Sitch S, Canadell JG, Santín C, Kolden C, Doerr SH, Le Quéré C (2022) Global and regional trends and drivers of fire under climate change. Reviews of Geophysics 60(3), e2020RG000726.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Jyoteeshkumar reddy P, Sharples JJ, Lewis SC, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE (2021) Modulating influence of drought on the synergy between heatwaves and dead fine fuel moisture content of bushfire fuels in the Southeast Australian region. Weather and Climate Extremes 31, 100300.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Keetch JJ, Byram GM (1968) A drought index for forest fire control. (USDA Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station Research Paper SE-38: Asheville, NC)

King AD, Pitman AJ, Henley BJ, Ukkola AM, Brown JR (2020) The role of climate variability in Australian drought. Nature Climate Change 10, 177-179.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Krikken F, Lehner F, Haustein K, Drobyshev I, van Oldenborgh GJ (2021) Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018. Natural Hazards Earth Systems Science 21, 2169-2179.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Li X, Xi B, Wu X, Choat B, Feng J, Jiang M, Tissue D (2022) Unlocking drought-Induced tree mortality: physiological mechanisms to modeling. Frontiers in Plant Science 13, 835921.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Libonati R, Geirinhas JL, Silva PS, et al. (2022) Assessing the role of compound drought and heatwave events on unprecedented 2020 wildfires in the Pantanal. Environmental Research Letters 17, 015005.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Lim E, Hendon H, Butler A, Thompson D, Lawrence Z, Scaife A, Shepherd T, Polichtchouk I, Nakamura H, Kobayashi C, Comer R, Coy L, Dowdy A, Garreaud R, Newman P, Wang G (2021) The 2019 Southern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex weakening and its impacts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 102, E1150-E1171.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Lock AP (2001) The numerical representation of entrainment in parameterizations of boundary layer turbulent mixing. Monthly Weather Review 129, 1148-1163.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Luo K, Wang X, de Jong M, Flannigan M (2024) Drought triggers and sustains overnight fires in North America. Nature 627, 321-327.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Markowski P, Richardson Y (2010) The nocturnal low-level wind maximum. In ‘Mesoscale Meteorology in Midlatitudes’. pp. 73–114. Chapter 4. eBook Academic Collection. (EBSCO Publishing, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd) 10.1002/9780470682104.ch4

Matthews S (2015) Dead fuel moisture research: 1991–2012. International Journal of Wildland Fire 23, 78-92.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

McArthur AG (1967) ‘Fire Behaviour in Eucalypt Forests.’ (Commonwealth of Australia Forestry and Timber Bureau: Canberra, ACT)

McArthur AG (1973) ‘Forest Fire Danger Meter Mark V.’ (Commonwealth Department of National Development Forestry and Timber Bureau: Canberra, ACT)

McGrath G, Fontaine JB, Van Dongen R, Hyde J, Leopold M, Matusick G, Ruthrof KX (2023) Geophysics reveals forest vulnerability to drought. Ecohydrology 16, e2596.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Mills GA, McCaw L (2010) Atmospheric stability environments and fire weather in Australia – extending the Haines Index. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Technical Report 20. (The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research: Melbourne, Vic.)

Mills G, Salkin O, Fearon M, Harris S, Brown T, Reinbold H (2022) Meteorological drivers of the eastern Victorian Black Summer (2019–2020) fires. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 72, 139-163.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Nairn J, Fawcett R (2014) The excess heat factor: a metric for heatwave intensity and its use in classifying heatwave severity. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 12, 227-53.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Nolan RH, Blackman CJ, de Dios VR, Choat B, Medlyn BE, Li X, Bradstock RA, Boer MM (2020) Linking forest flammability and plant vulnerability to drought. Forests 11, 779.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

NSW Bushfire Inquiry (2020) Final report of the NSW Bushfire Inquiry. Government of New South Wales. Available at https://www.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/noindex/2023-06/Final-Report-of-the-NSW-Bushfire-Inquiry.pdf [verified 28 December 2023]

Patterson M, Bracegirdle T, Woollings T (2019) Southern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking in CMIP5 and future changes in the Australia-New Zealand Sector. Geophysical Research Letters 46, 9281-9290.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Peace M, McCaw L, Santos B, Kepert JD, Burrows N, Fawcett RJB (2017) Meteorological drivers of extreme fire behaviour during the Waroona bushfire, Western Australia, January 2016. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 67(2), 79-106.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Peace M, Hanstrum B, Greenslade J, Zovko-Rajak D, Santra A, Kepert J, Fox-Hughes P, Ye H, Shermin T, Jones J (2021) Coupled fire-atmosphere simulations of five Black Summer fires using the ACCESS-Fire model - Black Summer final report. (Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre: Melbourne, Vic.)

Perkins SE, Alexander LV (2013) On the measurement of heatwaves. Journal of Climate 26, 4500-4517.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, White CJ, Alexander LV, Argüeso D, Boschat G, Cowan T, Evans JP, Ekström M, Oliver ECJ, Phatak A, Purich A (2016) Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves. Climatic Change 139, 101-114.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Peterson DA, Fromm MD, McRae RHD, Campbell JR, Hyer EJ, Taha G, Camacho CP, Kablick GP, Schmidt CC, DeLand MT (2021) Australia’s Black Summer pyrocumulonimbus super outbreak reveals potential for increasingly extreme stratospheric smoke events. Climate Dynamics 54, 4367-4377.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Pezza AB, van Rensch P, Cai W (2012) Severe heatwaves in southern Australia: Synoptic climatology and large scale connections. Climate Dynamics 38, 209-224.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Philip S, Kew S, van Oldenborgh G, Anslow F, Seneviratne S, Vautard R, et al. (2022) Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heatwave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021. Earth System Dynamics 13, 1689-1713.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Potter BE (2012) Atmospheric interactions with wildland fire behaviour – II. Plume and vortex dynamics. International Journal of Wildland Fire 21, 802-817.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Potter B (2018) The Haines Index – it’s time to revise it or replace it. International Journal of Wildland Fire 27, 437-440.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Rabin SS, Melton JR, Lasslop G, Bachelet D, Forrest M, Hantson S, Kaplan JO, Li F, Mangeon S, Ward DS, Yue C, Arora VK, Hickler T, Kloster S, Knorr W, Nieradzik L, Spessa A, Folberth GA, Sheehan T, Voulgarakis A, Kelley DI, Prentice IC, Sitch S, Harrison S, Arneth A (2017) The Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), phase 1: experimental and analytical protocols with detailed model descriptions. Geoscientific Model Development 10, 1175-1197.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Reeder MJ, Spengler T, Musgrave R (2015) Rossby waves, extreme fronts, and wildfires in southeastern Australia. Geophysical Research Letters 42, 2015-2023.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Rifai SW, De Kauwe MG, Ukkola AM, Cernusak LA, Meir P, Medlyn BE, Pitman AJ (2022) Thirty-eight years of CO2 fertilization has outpaced growing aridity to drive greening of Australian woody ecosystems. Biogeosciences 19, 491-515.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Rousi E, Kornhuber K, Beobide-Arsuaga G, Luo F, Coumou D (2022) Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia. Nature Communications 13, 3851.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Ruthrof KX, Fontaine JB, Matusick G, Breshears DB, Law DJ, Powell S, Hardy G (2016) How drought-induced forest die-off alters microclimate and increases fuel loadings and fire potentials. International Journal of Wildland Fire 25, 819-830.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Salkin O (2022) Victorian bushfire case studies – Black Summer final report. (Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre Report no. 734.2022: Melbourne)

Seager R, Hooks A, Williams AP, Cook B, Nakamura J, Henderson N (2015) Climatology, variability, and trends in the U.S. vapor pressure deficit, an important fire-related meteorological quantity. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 54, 1121-1141.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Sharples JJ (2009) An overview of mountain meteorological effects relevant to fire behaviour and bushfire risk. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 737-754.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Srock AF, Charney JJ, Potter BE, Goodrick SL (2018) The Hot-Dry-Windy Index: a new fire weather index. Atmosphere 9, 279.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Stocks BJ, Lawson BD, Alexander ME, Van Wagner CE, McAlpine RS, Lynham TJ, Dube DE (1989) The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System: an overview. The Forestry Chronicle 65, 450-457.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Sullivan AL, Matthews S (2013) Determining landscape fine fuel moisture content of the Kilmore East ‘Black Saturday’ wildfire using spatially-extended point-based models. Environmental Modelling & Software 40, 98-108.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Sullivan AL, Knight IK, Cheney NP (2002) Predicting the radiant heat flux from burning logs following a fire. Australian Forestry 65, 59-67.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Sullivan AL, McCaw WL, Cruz MG, Matthews S, Ellis PF (2012) Fuel, fire weather and fire behaviour in Australian ecosystems. In ‘Flammable Australia: fire regimes, biodiversity and ecosystems in a changing world’. (Eds RA Bradstock, AM Gill, RJ Williams) pp. 51–78. (CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne, Vic., Australia)

Toivanen J, Engel CB, Reeder MJ, Lane TP, Davies L, Webster S, Wales S (2019) Coupled atmosphere‐fire simulations of the Black Saturday Kilmore East wildfires with the unified model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 11, 210-230.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Zheng Y, Jong LM, Phipps SJ, Roberts JL, Moy AD, Curran MAJ, van Ommen TD (2021) Extending and understanding the South West Western Australian rainfall record using a snowfall reconstruction from Law Dome, East Antarctica. Climate of the Past 17, 1973-1987.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |