Australian Fire Danger Rating System: implementing fire behaviour calculations to forecast fire danger in a research prototype†

B. J. Kenny; S. Matthews; S. Sauvage; S. Grootemaat; J. J. Hollis; P. Fox-Hughes

doi:10.1071/WF23142

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Next Contents Vol 33(4)

Australian Fire Danger Rating System: implementing fire behaviour calculations to forecast fire danger in a research prototype^†

B. J. Kenny ^A ^C , S. Matthews ^A ^D , S. Sauvage ^B , S. Grootemaat ^A ^E , J. J. Hollis ^A ^F ^* and P. Fox-Hughes

^B

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A New South Wales Rural Fire Service, 4 Murray Rose Avenue, Sydney Olympic Park, NSW 2127, Australia.

^B Research Program, Bureau of Meteorology, 7/111 Macquarie Street, Hobart, Tas. 7000, Australia.

^C Present address: Nature Conservation Council of NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

^D Present address: Nova Systems, 100 William Street, Woolloomooloo, NSW 2011, Australia.

^E Present address: NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service, 4PS, 12 Darcy Street, Parramatta, NSW 2150, Australia.

^F Present address: Department of Biodiversity, Conservation & Attractions, Brain Street, Manjimup, WA 6258, Australia.

^* Correspondence to: jennifer.hollis@dbca.wa.gov.aus

International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF23142 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23142

Submitted: 11 September 2023 Accepted: 8 February 2024 Published: 10 April 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Background

The Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) was implemented operationally throughout Australia in September 2022, providing calculation of fire danger forecasts based on peer-reviewed fire behaviour models. The system is modular and allows for ongoing incorporation of new scientific research and improved datasets.

Aims

Prior to operational implementation of the AFDRS, a Research Prototype (AFDRS_RP), described here, was built to test the input data and systems and evaluate the performance and potential outputs.

Methods

Fire spread models were selected and aligned with fuel types in a process that captured bioregional variation in fuel characteristics. National spatial datasets were created to identify fuel types and fire history in alignment with existing spatial weather forecast layers.

Key results

The AFDRS_RP demonstrated improvements over the McArthur Forest and Grass Fire Danger systems due to its use of improved fire behaviour models, as well as more accurately reflecting the variation in fuels.

Conclusions

The system design was robust and allowed for the incorporation of updates to the models and datasets prior to implementation of the AFDRS.

Keywords: AFDRS, Australian Fire Danger Rating System, fire behaviour calculations, fire behaviour models, fuel attributes, fuel classification, fuel type map, interactive forecast display, research prototype.

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