Pre-fire assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards in the Santa Fe Municipal Watershed

Manuel Lopez; Ellis Margolis; Anne Tillery; Steve Bassett; Alan Hook

doi:10.1071/WF23065

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Contents Vol 33(9)

Pre-fire assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards in the Santa Fe Municipal Watershed

Manuel Lopez ^A ^* , Ellis Margolis ^B , Anne Tillery ^C , Steve Bassett

^D and Alan Hook ^E

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A National Forest Foundation, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA.

^B U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, New Mexico Landscapes Field Station, 301 Dinosaur Trail, Santa Fe, NM 87508, USA.

^C U.S. Geological Survey, New Mexico Water Science Center, USA.

^D The Nature Conservancy in New Mexico, USA.

^E The City of Santa Fe, Water Division, New Mexico, USA.

^* Correspondence to: mlopez@nationalforests.org

International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF23065 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23065

Submitted: 4 May 2023 Accepted: 19 May 2024 Published: 22 August 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY).

Abstract

Background

Wildfires are increasing in size and severity due to climate change combined with overstocked forests. Fire increases the likelihood of debris flows, posing significant threats to life, property, and water supplies.

Aims

We conducted a debris-flow hazard assessment of the Santa Fe Municipal Watershed (SFMW) to answer two questions: (1) where are debris flows most likely to occur; and (2) how much debris might they produce? We also document the influence of fuel treatments on fire severity and debris flows.

Methods

We modelled post-fire debris-flow likelihood and volume in 103 sub-basins for 2-year, 5-year, and Probable Maximum Precipitation rainfalls following modelled low-, moderate-, and high-severity wildfires.

Key results

Post-fire debris-flow likelihoods were >90% in all but the lowest fire and rain scenarios. Sub-basins with fuel treatments had the lowest burn severities, debris-flow likelihoods, and sediment volumes, but treatment effects decreased with increased fire severity and rain intensity.

Conclusions

Post-fire debris flows with varying debris volumes are likely to occur following wildfire in the SFMW, but fuel treatments can reduce likelihood and volume.

Implications

Future post-fire debris flows will continue to threaten water supplies, but fuel reduction treatments and debris-flow mitigation provide opportunities to minimise effects.

Keywords: debris-flow model, fire modelling, FlamMap, forest treatments, fuel treatments, New Mexico, post-fire hazards.

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