Assessing wildfire risk to critical infrastructure in central Chile: application to an electrical substation

Gonzalo Severino; Andrés Fuentes; Alejandro Valdivia; Fernando Auat-Cheein; Pedro Reszka

doi:10.1071/WF22113

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Previous Next Contents Vol 33(4)

Assessing wildfire risk to critical infrastructure in central Chile: application to an electrical substation

Gonzalo Severino

^A ^* , Andrés Fuentes

^A , Alejandro Valdivia ^B , Fernando Auat-Cheein

^C and Pedro Reszka

^D

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A Departmento de Industrias, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Avenida España 1680, Valparaíso, Chile.

^B Chilquinta Distribución S.A., Avenida Argentina No.1, Valparaíso, Chile.

^C Departamento de Electrónica, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Avenida España 1680, Valparaíso, Chile.

^D Faculty of Engineering and Sciences, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Diagonal Las Torres 2640, Peñalolén, Chile.

^* Correspondence to: gonzalo.severino@usm.cl

International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF22113 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF22113

Submitted: 1 July 2022 Accepted: 27 January 2024 Published: 4 April 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Background

Wildfires have caused significant damage in Chile, with critical infrastructure being vulnerable to extreme wildfires.

Aim

This work describes a methodology for estimating wildfire risk that was applied to an electrical substation in the wildland–urban interface (WUI) of Valparaíso, Chile.

Methods

Wildfire risk is defined as the product between the probability of a wildfire reaching infrastructure at the WUI and its consequences or impacts. The former is determined with event trees combined with modelled burn probability. Wildfire consequence is considered as the ignition probability of a proxy fuel within the substation, as a function of the incident heat flux using a probit expression derived from experimental data. The heat flux is estimated using modelled fire intensity and geometry and a corresponding view factor from an assumed solid flame.

Key results

The probability of normal and extreme fires reaching the WUI is of the order of 10⁻⁴ and 10⁻⁶ events/year, respectively. Total wildfire risk is of the order of 10⁻⁵ to 10⁻⁴ events/year

Conclusions

This methodology offers a comprehensive interpretation of wildfire risk that considers both wildfire likelihood and consequences.

Implications

The methodology is an interesting tool for quantitatively assessing wildfire risk of critical infrastructure and risk mitigation measures.

Keywords: burn probability, consequence analysis, critical infrastructure, event tree, ignition probability, probit, risk, wildland–urban interface.

References

Abo El Ezz A, Boucher J, Cotton-Gagnon A, Godbout A (2022) Framework for spatial incident-level wildfire risk modelling to residential structures at the wildland–urban interface. Fire Safety Journal 131, 103625.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Àgueda A, Pastor E, Pérez Y, Planas E (2010) Experimental study of the emissivity of flames resulting from the combustion of forest fuels. International Journal of Thermal Sciences 49, 543-554.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Andrews JD, Dunnett SJ (2000) Event-tree analysis using binary decision diagrams. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 49, 230-238.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Alcasena F, Ager AA, Belavenutti P, Krawchuk M, Day MA (2022) Contrasting the efficiency of landscape versus community protection fuel treatment strategies to reduce wildfire exposure and risk. Journal of Environmental Management 309, 114650.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Aragoneses E, Chuvieco E (2021) Generation and mapping of fuel types for fire risk assessment. Fire 4, 59.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Arevalo-Ramirez TA, Fuentes Castillo AH, Reszka Cabello PS, Auat Cheein FA (2021) Single bands leaf reflectance prediction based on fuel moisture content for forestry applications. Biosystems Engineering 202, 79-95.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Bal N, Rein G (2011) Numerical investigation of the ignition delay time of a translucent solid at high radiant heat fluxes. Combustion and Flame 158, 1109-1116.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Bowman DMJS, Moreira-Muñoz A, Kolden CA, Chávez RO, Muñoz AA, Salinas F, González-Reyes Á, Rocco R, de la Barrera F, Williamson GJ, Borchers N, Cifuentes LA, Abatzoglou JT, Johnston FH (2019) Human–environmental drivers and impacts of the globally extreme 2017 Chilean fires. Ambio 48, 350-362.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Calkin DE, Cohen JD, Finney MA, Thompson MP (2014) How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111, 746-751.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Castillo Soto M, Julio Alvear G, Garfias Salinas R (2015) Current wildfire risk status and forecast in Chile: progress and future challenges. In ‘Wildfire Hazards, Risks, and Disasters’. (Eds D Paton, PT Buergelt, S McCaffrey, F Tedim, JF Shroder) pp. 59–75. (Elsevier)

Center for Chemical Process Safety (2000) ‘Guidelines for chemical process quantitative risk analysis.’ 2nd edn. (Wiley-Interscience)

Cohen JD (2004) Relating flame radiation to home ignition using modeling and experimental crown fires. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 34, 1616-1626.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Cozzani V, Gubinelli G, Antonioni G, Spadoni G, Zanelli S (2005) The assessment of risk caused by domino effect in quantitative area risk analysis. Journal of Hazardous Materials 127, 14-30.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Egorova VN, Trucchia A, Pagnini G (2022) Fire-spotting generated fires. Part II: The role of flame geometry and slope. Applied Mathematical Modelling 104, 1-20.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Fang W, Peng Z, Chen H (2021) Ignition of pine needle fuel bed by the coupled effects of a hot metal particle and thermal radiation. Proceedings of the Combustion Institute 38, 5101-5108.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Fernandez-Pello AC (2017) Wildland fire spot ignition by sparks and firebrands. Fire Safety Journal 91, 2-10.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Finney MA (2002) Fire growth using minimum travel time methods. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 32, 1420-1424.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Finney MA (2005) The challenge of quantitative risk analysis for wildland fire. Forest Ecology and Management 211, 97-108.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Finney MA (2006) An overview of FlamMap fire modeling capabilities. In ‘Fuels management – how to measure success: conference proceedings’, 28–30 March 2006, Portland, OR. Proceedings RMRS-P-41. (Eds PL Andrews, BW Butler) pp. 213–220. (USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station: Fort Collins, CO, USA)

Finney MA (2021) The wildland fire system and challenges for engineering. Fire Safety Journal 120, 103085.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Flannigan MD, Krawchuk MA, De Groot WJ, Wotton BM, Gowman LM (2009) Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 483-507.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Fonseca J, Tan A, Silva R, Monassi V, Assuncao L, Junqueira W, Mel M (1990) Effects of agricultural fires on the performance of overhead transmission lines. IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery 5, 687-694.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Haas JR, Calkin DE, Thompson MP (2013) A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into wildland–urban interface risk assessments within the United States. Landscape and Urban Planning 119, 44-53.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Jazebi S, de León F, Nelson A (2020) Review of wildfire management techniques – Part I: Causes, prevention, detection, suppression, and data analytics. IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery 35, 430-439.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Johnston JM, Wooster MJ, Lynham TJ (2014) Experimental confirmation of the MWIR and LWIR grey body assumption for vegetation fire flame emissivity. International Journal of Wildland Fire 23, 463-479.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Johnston LM, Wang X, Erni S, Taylor SW, McFayden CB, Oliver JA, Stockdale C, Christianson A, Boulanger Y, Gauthier S, Arseneault D, Wotton BM, Parisien MA, Flannigan MD (2020) Wildland fire risk research in Canada. Environmental Reviews 28, 164-186.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

KC Ujjwal, Hilton J, Garg S, Aryal J (2022) A probability-based risk metric for operational wildfire risk management. Environmental Modelling and Software 148, 105286.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Khakzad N, Dadashzadeh M, Reniers G (2018) Quantitative assessment of wildfire risk in oil facilities. Journal of Environmental Management 223, 433-443.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Keane RE, Reinhardt ED, Scott J, Gray K, Reardon J (2005) Estimating forest canopy bulk density using six indirect methods. Canadian Journal of Forestry Research 35, 724-739.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Lautenberger C (2017) Mapping areas at elevated risk of large-scale structure loss using Monte Carlo simulation and wildland fire modeling. Fire Safety Journal 91, 768-775.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Lautenberger C, Tien CL, Lee KY, Stretton AJ (2016) Radiation heat transfer. In ‘SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering’. 5th edn. (Ed. M Hurley) pp. 102–137. (Springer: New York, NY, USA)

Liu Y, Liu Y, Fu J, Yang CE, Dong X, Tian H, Tao B, Yang J, Wang Y, Zou Y, Ke Z (2021) Projection of future wildfire emissions in western USA under climate change: contributions from changes in wildfire, fuel loading and fuel moisture. International Journal of Wildland Fire 31, 1-13.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Manzello SL, Suzuki S, Gollner MJ, Fernandez-Pello AC (2020) Role of firebrand combustion in large outdoor fire spread. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science 76, 100801.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Maranghides A, Link E, Nazare S, Hawks S, McDougald J, Quarles S, Gorham D (2022) WUI Structure/parcel/community fire hazard mitigation methodology. NIST Technical Note 2205. (National Institute of Standards and Technology: Gaithersburg, MD, USA) 10.6028/NIST.TN.2205

McWethy DB, Pauchard A, García RA, Holz A, González ME, Veblen TT, Stahl J, Currey B (2018) Landscape drivers of recent fire activity (2001-2017) in south-central Chile. PLoS One 13(8), e0201195.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Meier S, Strobl E, Elliott RJR, Kettridge N (2023) Cross-country risk quantification of extreme wildfires in Mediterranean Europe. Risk Analysis 43, 1745-1762.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Miller C, Ager AA (2013) A review of recent advances in risk analysis for wildfire management. International Journal of Wildland Fire 22, 1-14.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Morandini F, Perez-Ramirez Y, Tihay V, Santoni PA, Barboni T (2013) Radiant, convective and heat release characterization of vegetation fire. International Journal of Thermal Sciences 70, 83-91.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Moreira F, Ascoli D, Safford H, Adams MA, Moreno JM, Pereira JMC, Catry FX, Armesto J, Bond W, González ME, Curt T, Koutsias N, McCaw L, Price O, Pausas JG, Rigolot E, Stephens S, Tavsanoglu C, Vallejo VR, Van Wilgen BW, Xanthopoulos G, Fernandes PM (2020) Wildfire management in Mediterranean-type regions: paradigm change needed. Environmental Research Letters 15, 011001.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Moritz MA, Batllori E, Bradstock RA, Gill AM, Handmer J, Hessburg PF, Leonard J, McCaffrey S, Odion DC, Schoennagel T, Syphard AD (2014) Learning to coexist with wildfire. Nature 515, 58-66.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Mudan KS (1984) Thermal radiation hazards from hydrocarbon pool fires. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science 10, 59-80.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Muhlbauer WK (2004) ‘Pipeline risk management manual: ideas, techniques, and resources.’ 3rd edn. (Elsevier)

Oliveira S, Rocha J, Sá A (2021) Wildfire risk modeling. Current Opinion in Environmental Science & Health 23, 100274.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Oom D, de Rigo D, Pfeiffer H, Branco A, Ferrari D, Grecchi R, Artés-Vivancos T, Houston Durrant T, Boca R, Maianti P, Libertá G San-Miguel-Ayanz J, et al. (2022) ‘Pan-European wildfire risk assessment.’ (Publications Office of the European Union, EUR 31160 EN: Luxembourg) 10.2760/9429

Papakosta P, Xanthopoulos G, Straub D (2017) Probabilistic prediction of wildfire economic losses to housing in Cyprus using Bayesian network analysis. International Journal of Wildland Fire 26, 10-23.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Parisien MA, Dawe DA, Miller C, Stockdale CA, Armitage BO (2019) Applications of simulation-based burn probability modelling: a review. International Journal of Wildland Fire 28, 913-926.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Parot R, Rivera JI, Reszka P, Torero JL, Fuentes A (2022) A simplified analytical model for radiation dominated ignition of solid fuels exposed to multiple non-steady heat fluxes. Combustion and Flame 237, 111866.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Pastor E, Zárate L, Planas E, Arnaldos J (2003) Mathematical models and calculation systems for the study of wildland fire behaviour. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science 29, 139-153.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Pausas JG, Keeley JE (2021) Wildfires and global change. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 19, 387-395.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Pacheco AP, Claro J, Fernandes PM, de Neufville R, Oliveira TM, Borges JG, Rodrigues JC (2015) Cohesive fire management within an uncertain environment: a review of risk handling and decision support systems. Forest Ecology and Management 347, 1-17.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Pike H, Khan F, Amyotte P (2020) Precautionary Principle (PP) versus As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP): which one to use and when. Process Safety and Environmental Protection 137, 158-168.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Planas E, Paugam R, Àgueda A, Vacca P, Pastor E (2023) Fires at the wildland–industrial interface. Is there an emerging problem? Fire Safety Journal 141, 103906.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Radočaj D, Jurišić M, Gašparović M (2022) A wildfire growth prediction and evaluation approach using Landsat and MODIS data. Journal of Environmental Management 304, 114351.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Reszka P, Fuentes A (2014) The Great Valparaiso Fire and fire safety management in Chile. Fire Technology 51, 753-758.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Rivera J, Hernández N, Consalvi JL, Reszka P, Contreras J, Fuentes A (2021) Ignition of wildland fuels by idealized firebrands. Fire Safety Journal 120, 103036.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Sabi FZ, Terrah SM, Mosbah O, Dilem A, Hamamousse N, Sahila A, Harrouz O, Boutchiche H, Chaib F, Zekri N, Kaiss A, Clerc J, Giroud F, Viegas DX (2021) Ignition/non-ignition phase transition: a new critical heat flux estimation method. Fire Safety Journal 119, 103257.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Sathaye JA, Dale LL, Larsen PH, Fitts GA, Koy K, Lewis SM, de Lucena AFP (2013) Rising temps, tides, and wildfires: assessing the risk to California’s energy infrastructure from projected climate change. IEEE Power and Energy Magazine 11, 32-45.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Scott JH, Burgan RE (2005) Standard fire behavior fuel models: a comprehensive set for use with Rothermel’s surface fire spread model. General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-153. (USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station) 10.2737/RMRS-GTR-153

Scott JH, Thompson MP, Calkin DE (2013) A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management. General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-315. (USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station) 10.2737/RMRS-GTR-315

Shahparvari S, Fadaki M, Chhetri P (2020) Spatial accessibility of fire stations for enhancing operational response in Melbourne. Fire Safety Journal 117, 103149.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Sullivan AL (2009) Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990-2007. 1: Physical and quasi-physical models. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 349-368.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Sullivan AL, Ellis PF, Knight IK (2003) A review of radiant heat flux models used in bushfire applications. International Journal of Wildland Fire 12, 101-110.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Thompson MP, Zimmerman T, Mindar D, Taber M (2016) Risk terminology primer: basic principles and a glossary for the wildland fire management community. General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-349. (USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station: Fort Collins, CO) 10.2737/RMRS-GTR-349

Tedim F, Leone V, Amraoui M, Bouillon C, Coughlan MR, Delogu GM, Fernandes PM, Ferreira C, McCaffrey S, McGee TK, Parente J, Paton D, Pereira MG, Ribeiro LM, Viegas DX, Xanthopoulos G (2018) Defining extreme wildfire events: difficulties, challenges, and impacts. Fire 1, 9.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

United Nations Environment Programme (2022) Spreading like wildfire – The rising threat of extraordinary landscape fires. A UNEP Rapid Response Assessment (Nairobi, Kenya).

Vacca P, Caballero D, Pastor E, Planas E (2020) WUI fire risk mitigation in Europe: a performance-based design approach at home-owner level. Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 1, 97-105.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Villacrés J, Arevalo-Ramirez T, Fuentes A, Reszka P, Auat Cheein F (2019) Foliar moisture content from the spectral signature for wildfire risk assessments in Valparaíso–Chile. Sensors 19, 5475.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Wagenbrenner NS, Forthofer JM, Lamb BK, Shannon KS, Butler BW (2016) Downscaling surface wind predictions from numerical weather prediction models in complex terrain with WindNinja. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16, 5229-5241.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Waseem M, Manshadi SD (2020) Electricity grid resilience amid various natural disasters: challenges and solutions. The Electricity Journal 33, 106864.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Wilson R, Crouch EAC (1987) Risk assessment and comparisons: an introduction. Science 236, 267-270.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Yang L, Jones BF, Yang SH (2007) A fuzzy multi-objective programming for optimization of fire station locations through genetic algorithms. European Journal of Operational Research 181, 903-915.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Zárate L, Arnaldos J, Casal J (2008) Establishing safety distances for wildland fires. Fire Safety Journal 43, 565-575.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |