Reconstructing seasonal fire danger in southeastern Australia using tree rings
Kathryn Allen
A B C * , Stephen B. Stewart D , Carly Tozer E , Doug Richardson E , Craig Nitschke B , James Risbey E , Andrew Dowdy F , Matthew Brookhouse G , Paul Fox-Hughes F , Mike Peterson H and Patrick J. Baker B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Geography, Planning, Spatial Sciences, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, Tas. 7005, Australia.
B School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Richmond, Vic. 3121, Australia.
C Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of New South Wales, NSW 2052, Australia.
D Land and Water CSIRO, Sandy Bay, Tas. 7005, Australia.
E Oceans and Atmosphere CSIRO, Battery Point, Tas. 7004, Australia.
F Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart, Tas. 7000, Australia.
G Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australia National University, ACT 0200, Australia.
H Acacia Hills, Tas. 7306, Australia.
* Correspondence to: Kathryn.Allen@utas.edu.au
International Journal of Wildland Fire 31(6) 559-571 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF21072
Submitted: 27 May 2021 Accepted: 11 April 2022 Published: 13 May 2022
© 2022 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)
Abstract
Climate projections indicate that dangerous fire weather will become more common over the coming century. We examine the potential of a network of temperature- and moisture-sensitive tree-ring sites in southeastern Australia to reconstruct the number of high fire-danger days for the January–March season. Using the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), we show that modestly statistically skilful reconstructions for the far southeast of Australia (western Tasmania), where the majority of tree-ring predictors are located, can be developed. According to the averaged reconstructions for the 1590–2008 period, there have been 16 years prior to the start of the FFDI records (1950), and 7 years since 1950, with >48 (mean + 1σ) high fire-danger days in the 3-month season. The western Tasmanian reconstructions indicate extended relatively high fire-danger periods in the 1650s–1660s and 1880s–1890s. Fire danger has also been relatively high since 2000 CE. A persistent increase in the number of high fire-danger days over the past four decades has not been matched over the previous 390 years. This work indicates it is possible to produce statistically useful reconstructions of high seasonal fire danger – as opposed to fire occurrence – but that availability of local proxy records is key.
Keywords: climate change, drought factor, Forest Fire Danger Index, paleoproxy fire records, reconstruction, seasonal fire danger, Tasmania, tree rings.
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