Wildfire decision support tools: an exploratory study of use in the United States
Claire Rapp
A B , Emily Rabung A , Robyn Wilson A and Eric Toman A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A School of Environment and Natural Resources, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA.
B Corresponding author. Email: rapp.172@osu.edu
International Journal of Wildland Fire 29(7) 581-594 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF19131
Submitted: 24 August 2019 Accepted: 8 March 2020 Published: 6 April 2020
Abstract
In the United States, many decision support tools exist to provide fire managers with weather and fire behaviour information to inform and facilitate risk-based decision-making. Relatively little is known about how managers use these tools in the field and when and how they may serve to influence decisions. To address this gap, we conducted exploratory interviews with 27 wildfire management and fire weather professionals across the United States. Results reveal that barriers to the use of decision support tools are structural and social. Specifically, fire weather and behaviour models may not generate reliable output and managers may not use the information they provide, but technical specialists on incident management teams (IMTs) play an active role in trying to overcome these barriers through their technical expertise and their relationships with other members of the IMT. Although researchers suggest tools such as the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) inform broad, strategic decision-making for line officers and IMTs, our results suggest fire weather and behaviour models are also important for communication and strategic or tactical planning within the IMT, especially for operations. We find that ultimately, managers may make use of fire weather and behaviour models, but they do not dictate decisions.
Additional keywords: decision analysis, fire management, incident command.
References
Alexander ME, Cruz MG, Alexander ME, Cruz MG (2013) Limitations on the accuracy of model predictions of wildland fire. The Forestry Chronicle 89, 372–383.| Limitations on the accuracy of model predictions of wildland fire.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Andrews PL, Loftsgaarden DO, Bradshaw LS (2003) Evaluation of fire danger rating indexes using logistic regression and percentile analysis. International Journal of Wildland Fire 12, 213–226.
| Evaluation of fire danger rating indexes using logistic regression and percentile analysis.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Benali A, Ervilha AR, Sá ACL, Fernandes PM, Pinto RMS, Trigo RM, Pereira JMC (2016) Deciphering the impact of uncertainty on the accuracy of large wildfire spread simulations. The Science of the Total Environment 569–570, 73–85.
| Deciphering the impact of uncertainty on the accuracy of large wildfire spread simulations.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 27333574PubMed |
Bradshaw LS, Deeming JE, Burgan RE, Cohen JD (1984) The 1978 National Fire-Danger Rating System: Technical Documentation. General Technical Report INT-169. US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, pp. 1–44. (Ogden, UT, USA)
Calkin D, Gebert K, Jones G, Neilson RP (2005) Forest Service large fire area burned and suppression expenditure trends, 1970–2002. Journal of Forestry 103, 179–183.
| Forest Service large fire area burned and suppression expenditure trends, 1970–2002.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Calkin D, Finney M, Ager AA, Thompson M, Gebert K (2011a) Progress towards and barriers to implementation of a risk framework for US Federal wildland fire policy and decision-making. Forest Policy and Economics 13, 378–389.
| Progress towards and barriers to implementation of a risk framework for US Federal wildland fire policy and decision-making.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Calkin D, Thompson M, Finney M, Hyde K (2011b) A real-time risk assessment tool supporting wildland fire decision-making. Journal of Forestry 109, 274–280.
Calkin D, Venn T, Wibbenmeyer M, Thompson M (2012) Estimating US federal wildland fire managers’ preferences toward competing strategic suppression objectives. International Journal of Wildland Fire 22, 212–222.
| Estimating US federal wildland fire managers’ preferences toward competing strategic suppression objectives.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Calkin D, Thompson M, Finney M (2015) Negative consequences of positive feedbacks in US wildfire management. Forest Ecosystems 2, 9
| Negative consequences of positive feedbacks in US wildfire management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Campbell JL, Quincy C, Osserman J, Pedersen OK (2013) Coding in-depth semistructured interviews: problems of unitization and intercoder reliability and agreement. Sociological Methods & Research 42, 294–320.
| Coding in-depth semistructured interviews: problems of unitization and intercoder reliability and agreement.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Canton-Thompson J, Gebert K, Thompson B, Jones G, Calkin D, Donovan GH (2008) External human factors in incident management team decision-making and their effect on large fire suppression expenditures. Journal of Forestry 106, 416–424.
Creswell JW, Poth CN (2018) ‘Qualitative inquiry & evaluation methods.’ (Sage Publications, Inc.: Thousand Oaks, CA, USA)
Cruz MG, Alexander ME (2013) Uncertainty associated with model predictions of surface and crown fire rates of spread. Environmental Modelling & Software 47, 16–28.
| Uncertainty associated with model predictions of surface and crown fire rates of spread.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Cruz MG, Alexander ME, Sullivan AL, Gould JS, Kilinc M (2018) Assessing improvements in models used to operationally predict wildland fire rate of spread. Environmental Modelling & Software 105, 54–63.
| Assessing improvements in models used to operationally predict wildland fire rate of spread.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
de Jong BA, Dirks KT, Gillespie N (2016) Trust and team performance: a meta-analysis of main effects, contingencies, and qualifiers. Journal of Applied Psychology 101, 1134–1150.
| Trust and team performance: a meta-analysis of main effects, contingencies, and qualifiers.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 27123697PubMed |
Dickson J, McLennan J, Omodei MM (2000) Effects of concurrent verbalization on a time-critical, dynamic decision-making task. The Journal of General Psychology 127, 217–228.
| Effects of concurrent verbalization on a time-critical, dynamic decision-making task.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 10843263PubMed |
Doane D, O’Laughlin J, Morgan P, Miller C (2006) Barriers to wildland fire use: a preliminary problem analysis. International Journal of Wilderness 12, 2005–2007.
Donovan GH, Prestemon JP, Gebert K (2011) The effect of newspaper coverage and political pressure on wildfire suppression costs. Society & Natural Resources 24, 785–798.
| The effect of newspaper coverage and political pressure on wildfire suppression costs.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Drews FA, Siebeneck L, Cova T (2015) Information search and decision-making in computer-based wildfire simulations. Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making 9, 229–240.
| Information search and decision-making in computer-based wildfire simulations.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Dunn CJ, Thompson M, Calkin D (2017) A framework for developing safe and effective large-fire response in a new fire management paradigm. Forest Ecology and Management 404, 184–196.
| A framework for developing safe and effective large-fire response in a new fire management paradigm.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Finney MA (2004) FARSITE: Fire Area Simulator – model development and evaluation. Research Paper RMRS-RP-4, US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 47 pp. (Ogden, UT, USA)
Finney M (2005) The challenge of quantitative risk analysis for wildland fire. Forest Ecology and Management 211, 97–108.
| The challenge of quantitative risk analysis for wildland fire.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Finney M, Grenfell IC, McHugh CW (2009) Modeling containment of large wildfires using generalized linear mixed-model analysis. Forest Science 55, 249–255.
Finney M, Grenfell IC, McHugh CW, Seli RC, Trethewey D, Stratton RD, Brittain S (2011) A method for ensemble wildland fire simulation. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 16, 153–167.
| A method for ensemble wildland fire simulation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Gigerenzer G, Hertwig R, Van Den Broek E, Fasolo B, Katsikopoulos KV (2005) ‘A 30% chance of rain tomorrow’: how does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts? Risk Analysis 25, 623–629.
| ‘A 30% chance of rain tomorrow’: how does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 16022695PubMed |
Hand M, Wibbenmeyer M, Calkin D, Thompson M (2015) Risk preferences, probability weighting, and strategy trade-offs in wildfire management. Risk Analysis 35, 1876–1891.
| Risk preferences, probability weighting, and strategy trade-offs in wildfire management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 26269258PubMed |
Holden ZA, Jolly WM (2011) Modeling topographic influences on fuel moisture and fire danger in complex terrain to improve wildland fire management decision support. Forest Ecology and Management 262, 2133–2141.
| Modeling topographic influences on fuel moisture and fire danger in complex terrain to improve wildland fire management decision support.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hyde K, Dickinson MB, Bohrer G, Calkin D, Evers L, Gilbertson-Day J, Nicolet T, Ryan K, Tague C (2013) Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: status and needs. International Journal of Wildland Fire 22, 37–50.
| Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: status and needs.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Ingalsbee T, Raja U (2015) The rising costs of wildfire suppression and the case for ecological fire use. In ‘The ecological importance of mixed-severity fires: Nature’s phoenix’. (Eds DA DellaSala, CT Hanson) pp. 348–371. (Elsevier: Amsterdam)
Jolly WM, Cochrane MA, Freeborn PH, Holden ZA, Brown TJ, Williamson GJ, Bowman DMJS (2015) Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013. Nature Communications 6, 7537
| Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 26172867PubMed |
Kahneman D, Klein G (2009) Conditions for intuitive expertise: a failure to disagree. The American Psychologist 64, 515–526.
| Conditions for intuitive expertise: a failure to disagree.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 19739881PubMed |
Klein G (2008) Naturalistic decision-making. Human Factors 50, 456–460.
| Naturalistic decision-making.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 18689053PubMed |
Klein G, Calderwood R, Clinton-Cirocco A (1986) Rapid decision-making on the fire ground. Proceedings of the Human Factors Society Annual Meeting 30, 576–580.
| Rapid decision-making on the fire ground.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Klein G, Calderwood R, MacGregor DG (1989) Critical decision method for eliciting knowledge. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics 19, 462–472.
| Critical decision method for eliciting knowledge.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Kutz J (2018) Fire funding fix comes with environmental rollbacks. High Country News. Available at https://www.hcn.org/articles/wildfire-fire-funding-fix-includes-environmental-rollbacks [verified 15 July 2019]
Lipshitz R, Klein G, Orasanu J, Salas E (2001) Taking stock of naturalistic decision-making. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 14, 331–352.
| Taking stock of naturalistic decision-making.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Maguire LA, Albright EA (2005) Can behavioral decision theory explain risk-averse fire management decisions? Forest Ecology and Management 211, 47–58.
| Can behavioral decision theory explain risk-averse fire management decisions?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Marlon JR, Bartlein PJ, Walsh MK, Harrison SP, Brown KJ, Edwards ME, Higuera PE, Power MJ, Anderson RS, Briles C, Brunelle A, Carcaillet C, Daniels M, Hu FS, Lavoie M, Long C, Minckley T, Richard PJH, Scott AC, Shafer DS, Tinner W, Umbanhowar CE, Whitlock C (2009) Wildfire responses to abrupt climate change in North America. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106, 2519–2524.
| Wildfire responses to abrupt climate change in North America.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 19190185PubMed |
McLennan J, Holgate AM, Omodei MM, Wearing AJ (2006) Decision-making effectiveness in wildfire Incident Management Teams. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management 14, 27–37.
| Decision-making effectiveness in wildfire Incident Management Teams.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Miller C, Ager AA (2013) A review of recent advances in risk analysis for wildfire management. International Journal of Wildland Fire 22, 1–14.
| A review of recent advances in risk analysis for wildfire management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Milne GJ, Kelso JK, Mellor D, Murphy ME (2014) Evaluating wildfire simulators using historical fire data. In ‘Advances in forest fire research’. (Ed. DX Viegas) pp. 1366–1375. (Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra: Coimbra, Portugal).
National Wildfire Coordinating Group (2013) Wildland fire incident management field guide. 160 pp. Available at https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/logistics/references/Wildland Fire Incident Management Field Guide.pdf [verified 15 June 2019]
NIFC (2018) Federal firefighting costs (suppression only). Available at https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_documents/SuppCosts.pdf [verified 17 May 2019]
NIFC (2019) Interagency standards for fire and fire aviation. Available at https://www.nifc.gov/policies/pol_ref_redbook.html.
Noonan-Wright E, Opperman T, Finney M, Zimmerman T, Seli RC, Elenz L, Calkin D, Fiedler J (2011) Developing the US wildland fire decision support system. Journal of Combustion 2011, 168473
| Developing the US wildland fire decision support system.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Noonan-Wright E, Sexton T, Burgard M (2014) The evolution of the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS): future direction after five years of implementation. In ‘Advances in forest fire research’. (Ed. DX Viegas) pp. 984–991. (Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra: Coimbra, Portugal)
O’Connor C, Thompson M, Rodríguez y Silva F (2016) Getting ahead of the wildfire problem: quantifying and mapping management challenges and opportunities. Geosciences 6, 35
| Getting ahead of the wildfire problem: quantifying and mapping management challenges and opportunities.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
O’Connor C, Calkin D, Thompson M (2017) An empirical machine learning method for predicting potential fire control locations for pre-fire planning and operational fire management. International Journal of Wildland Fire 26, 587–597.
| An empirical machine learning method for predicting potential fire control locations for pre-fire planning and operational fire management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Owen G, McLeod JD, Kolden CA, Ferguson DB, Brown TJ (2012) Wildfire management and forecasting fire potential: the roles of climate information and social networks in the south-west United States. Weather, Climate, and Society 4, 90–102.
| Wildfire management and forecasting fire potential: the roles of climate information and social networks in the south-west United States.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Pacheco AP, Claro J, Fernandes PM, de Neufville R, Oliveira TM, Borges JG, Rodrigues JC (2015) Cohesive fire management within an uncertain environment: a review of risk handling and decision support systems. Forest Ecology and Management 347, 1–17.
| Cohesive fire management within an uncertain environment: a review of risk handling and decision support systems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Page WG, Wagenbrenner NS, Butler BW, Forthofer JM, Gibson C (2018) An evaluation of NDFD weather forecasts for wildland fire behavior prediction. Weather and Forecasting 33, 301–315.
| An evaluation of NDFD weather forecasts for wildland fire behavior prediction.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Patton MQ (2002) ‘Qualitative research & evaluation methods.’ (Sage Publications, Inc.: Thousand Oaks, CA, USA)
Radeloff VC, Helmers DP, Kramer HA, Mockrin MH, Alexandre PM, Bar-Massada A, Butsic V, Hawbaker TJ, Martinuzzi S, Syphard AD, Stewart SI (2018) Rapid growth of the US wildland–urban interface raises wildfire risk. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, 3314–3319.
| Rapid growth of the US wildland–urban interface raises wildfire risk.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Rubin RJ, Rubin IS (2005) ‘Qualitative interviewing: the art of hearing data.’ (Sage Publications, Inc.: Thousand Oaks, CA, USA)
Ryan KC, Knapp EE, Varner JM (2013) Prescribed fire in North American forests and woodlands: history, current practice, and challenges. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 11, e15–e24.
| Prescribed fire in North American forests and woodlands: history, current practice, and challenges.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Saldana J (2010) ‘The coding manual for qualitative researchers.’ (Sage Publications, Inc.: Thousand Oaks, CA, USA)
Schoennagel T, Balch JK, Brenkert-Smith H, Dennison PE, Harvey BJ, Krawchuk MA, Mietkiewicz N, Morgan P, Moritz MA, Rasker R, Turner MG, Whitlock C (2017) Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 114, 4582–4590.
| Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 28416662PubMed |
Schultz CA, Thompson M, McCaffrey S (2019) Forest Service fire management and the elusiveness of change. Fire Ecology 15, 13
| Forest Service fire management and the elusiveness of change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Scott JH, Thompson M, Calkin D (2013) A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-315. (Missoula, MT, USA)
Steelman TA, McCaffrey S (2011) What is limiting more flexible fire management – public or agency pressure? Journal of Forestry 109, 454–461.
Taber MA, Elena L, Langowski PG (2013) Decision-making for wildfires: a guide for applying a risk management process at the incident level. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-298WWW. (Fort Collins, CO, USA)
Theobald DM, Romme WH (2007) Expansion of the US wildland–urban interface. Landscape and Urban Planning 83, 340–354.
| Expansion of the US wildland–urban interface.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Thompson M (2014) Social, institutional, and psychological factors affecting wildfire incident decision-making. Society & Natural Resources 27, 636–644.
| Social, institutional, and psychological factors affecting wildfire incident decision-making.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Thompson M, Calkin D (2011) Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review. Journal of Environmental Management 92, 1895–1909.
| Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 21489684PubMed |
Thompson M, MacGregor DG, Calkin D (2016) Risk management: core principles and practices, and their relevance to wildland fire. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-350. (Fort Collins, CO, USA).
Thompson M, Calkin D, Scott JH, Hand M (2017a) Uncertainty and probability in wildfire management decision support: an example from the United States. ‘Natural hazard uncertainty assessment: modeling and decision support’. (Eds K Riley, P Webley, M Thompson) pp. 31–41. (John Wiley & Sons: Hoboken, NJ, USA)
Thompson M, Rodríguez y Silva F, Calkin D, Hand M (2017b) A review of challenges to determining and demonstrating efficiency of large fire management. International Journal of Wildland Fire 26, 562–573.
| A review of challenges to determining and demonstrating efficiency of large fire management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Thompson M, MacGregor DG, Dunn CJ, Calkin D, Phipps J (2018) Rethinking the wildland fire management system. Journal of Forestry 116, 382–390.
| Rethinking the wildland fire management system.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Tversky A, Kahneman D (1974) Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185, 1124–1131.
| Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 17835457PubMed |
USFS and USDOI (2009) Guidance for implementation of Federal wildland fire management policy. Available at http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&btnG=Search&q=intitle:Guidance+for+Implementation+of+Federal+Wildland+ Fire+Management+Policy#0 [verified 8 November 2019]
Visschers VHM, Meertens RM, Passchier WWF, De Vries NNK (2009) Probability information in risk communication: a review of the research literature. Risk Analysis 29, 267–287.
| Probability information in risk communication: a review of the research literature.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Wei Y, Thompson M, Haas JR, Dillon GK, O’Connor C (2018) Spatial optimization of operationally relevant large-fire confine and point protection strategies: model development and test cases. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 493, 1–14.
| Spatial optimization of operationally relevant large-fire confine and point protection strategies: model development and test cases.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Westerling AL (2016) Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences 371, 20150178
| Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 27672160PubMed |
Westerling AL, Hidalgo HG, Cayan DR, Swetnam TW (2006) Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity. Science 313, 940–943.
| Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 16825536PubMed |
Wibbenmeyer M, Hand M, Calkin D, Venn T, Thompson M (2013) Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision-making: a choice experiment with US wildfire managers. Risk Analysis 33, 1021–1037.
| Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision-making: a choice experiment with US wildfire managers.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 23078036PubMed |
Wilson RS, Winter PL, Maguire LA, Ascher T (2011) Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision-making among a group of federal fire managers. Risk Analysis 31, 805–818.
| Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision-making among a group of federal fire managers.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 21143258PubMed |
Zimmerman T (2012) Wildland fire management decision-making. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology 2, 169–178.
