Historical patterns of wildfire ignition sources in California ecosystems
Jon E. Keeley A B and Alexandra D. Syphard C
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A US Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Sequoia–Kings Canyon Field Station, 47050 Generals Highway, Three Rivers, CA 93271, USA.
B Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, 612 Charles E. Young Drive East, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
C Conservation Biology Institute, 10423 Sierra Vista Avenue, La Mesa, CA 91941, USA.
D Corresponding author. Email: jon_keeley@usgs.gov
International Journal of Wildland Fire 27(12) 781-799 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18026
Submitted: 20 February 2018 Accepted: 25 September 2018 Published: 7 November 2018
Journal compilation © IAWF 2018 Open Access CC BY-NC-ND
Abstract
State and federal agencies have reported fire causes since the early 1900s, explicitly for the purpose of helping land managers design fire-prevention programs. We document fire-ignition patterns in five homogenous climate divisions in California over the past 98 years on state Cal Fire protected lands and 107 years on federal United States Forest Service lands. Throughout the state, fire frequency increased steadily until a peak c. 1980, followed by a marked drop to 2016. There was not a tight link between frequency of ignition sources and area burned by those sources and the relationships have changed over time. Natural lightning-ignited fires were consistently fewer from north to south and from high to low elevation. Throughout most of the state, human-caused fires dominated the record and were positively correlated with population density for the first two-thirds of the record, but this relationship reversed in recent decades. We propose a mechanistic multi-variate model of factors driving fire frequency, where the importance of different factors has changed over time. Although ignition sources have declined markedly in recent decades, one notable exception is powerline ignitions. One important avenue for future fire-hazard reduction will be consideration of solutions to reduce this source of dangerous fires.
Additional keywords: arson, debris burning, equipment, lightning, powerlines, smoking.
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