An analysis of fire frequency in tropical savannas of northern Australia, using a satellite-based fire atlas
Sofia L. J. Oliveira A C , M. A. Amaral Turkman B and José M. C. Pereira A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Forest Research Centre, School of Agriculture, Technical University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, PT-1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal.
B Center of Statistics and its Applications, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon, Campo Grande, Edificio C6, PT-1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal.
C Corresponding author. Email: sloliveira@isa.utl.pt
International Journal of Wildland Fire 22(4) 479-492 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF12021
Submitted: 7 February 2012 Accepted: 16 October 2012 Published: 11 December 2012
Abstract
We characterised fire frequency in western Arnhem Land, northern Australia (~24 000 km2), during the period 1990–2008, using available satellite burnt area maps. We estimated fire mortality and fire survival distributions, and hazard functions by vegetation type. We tested the performance of three probability models to study fire interval distributions: continuous and discrete Weibull, and discrete lognormal. Over the 19 year study period the mean annual area burnt was 36%. Median fire intervals ranged from 1 to 4 years. The discrete lognormal model best fitted the data, yielding non-monotonic hazard functions that peak at 2 to 3 years, making it more appropriate for fire frequency analysis in fire-prone tropical savannas than the more popular Weibull model. Open forest showed the highest flammability dependence on fuel age, and closed forest the lowest. The probability of burning as a function of time since last fire reaches an early peak and subsequently declines, due to fuel dynamics in these flammable savanna systems. Age-specific fire incidence is much higher for older vegetation patches than was suggested by earlier analysis of fire interval distributions. Fitting an appropriate model is important to characterize the observed fire frequency patterns, and make inferences for unobserved, longer fire intervals.
Additional keywords : discrete lognormal model, discrete Weibull model, Landsat imagery, western Arnhem Land.
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