On the relationships between forest fires and weather conditions in Greece from long-term national observations (1894–2010)
Nikos Koutsias A F , Gavriil Xanthopoulos B , Dimitra Founda C , Fotios Xystrakis A , Foula Nioti A , Magdalini Pleniou A , Giorgos Mallinis D and Margarita Arianoutsou E
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Department of Environmental and Natural Resources Management, University of Ioannina, G. Seferi 2, GR-30100 Agrinio, Greece.
B Hellenic Agricultural Organisation ‘Demeter’, Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems and Forest Products Technology, PO Box 14180, Terma Alkmanos, Ilisia, GR-11528 Athens, Greece.
C Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & V. Pavlou Street, GR-15236 Penteli, Athens.
D Department of Forestry & Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, Pantazidou 193, GR-68200 Orestiada, Greece.
E Department of Ecology & Systematics, Faculty of Biology, National & Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis–Ilisia, GR-15784 Athens, Greece.
F Corresponding author. Email: nkoutsia@cc.uoi.gr
International Journal of Wildland Fire 22(4) 493-507 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF12003
Submitted: 4 January 2012 Accepted: 12 October 2012 Published: 11 December 2012
Abstract
Historical fire records and meteorological observations, spanning more than 1 century (1894–2010), were gathered and assembled in a database, to provide long-term fire–weather associations. We investigated the relationships between forest fire activity and meteorological parameters and sought to find temporal patterns and trends in these historical records and to identify any linkages between meteorological parameters and fire occurrence in the eastern Mediterranean region. Trend analysis of the time series revealed a statistically significant increase in the number of fires and air temperature, particularly after the mid-1970s. Fire occurrence, expressed as the annual number of fires and total burnt area, was strongly correlated with the mean maximum and the absolute maximum air temperature which, in turn, was related to the occurrence of summer heat waves. Total burnt area was also strongly negatively correlated with fire-season precipitation, and positively correlated with 2-year-lagged annual and summer precipitation, underlying the effect of precipitation in controlling fuel production and moisture. These findings support the argument that although annually lagged precipitation totals may have a marginal effect on fire risk by influencing biomass production and accumulation, the lag0 weather parameters are the main drivers of fire spread by directly controlling fuel moisture.
Additional keywords : autocorrelation, cross-correlation, forest fires, generalised least squares linear regression, Mann–Kendall trend test, Mediterranean Europe, Spearman correlation.
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