Spatial variability in wildfire probability across the western United States
Marc-André Parisien A B G , Susan Snetsinger C , Jonathan A. Greenberg D , Cara R. Nelson C , Tania Schoennagel E , Solomon Z. Dobrowski F and Max A. Moritz B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 5320 122nd Street, Edmonton, AB, T5H 3S5, Canada.
B Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California – Berkeley, 137 Mulford Hall 3114, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
C Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, 32 Campus Drive, Missoula, MT 59812, USA.
D Department of Geography, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 607 South Mathews Avenue, MC 150, Urbana, IL 61801, USA.
E Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
F Department of Forest Management, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812,USA.
G Corresponding author. Email: marc-andre.parisien@nrcan-rncan.gc.ca
International Journal of Wildland Fire 21(4) 313-327 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF11044
Submitted: 23 March 2011 Accepted: 18 August 2011 Published: 8 February 2012
Abstract
Despite growing knowledge of fire–environment linkages in the western USA, obtaining reliable estimates of relative wildfire likelihood remains a work in progress. The purpose of this study is to use updated fire observations during a 25-year period and a wide array of environmental variables in a statistical framework to produce high-resolution estimates of wildfire probability. Using the MaxEnt modelling technique, point-source fire observations that were sampled from area burned during the 1984–2008 time period were related to explanatory variables representing ignitions, flammable vegetation (i.e. fuels), climate and topography. Model results were used to produce spatially explicit predictions of wildfire probability. To assess the effect of humans on the spatial patterns of wildfire likelihood, we built an alternative model that excluded all variables having a strong anthropogenic imprint. Results showed that wildfire probability in the western USA is far from uniform, with different areas responding to different environmental drivers. The effect of anthropogenic factors on wildfire probability varied by region but, on the whole, humans appear to inhibit fire activity in the western USA. Our results not only provide what appear to be robust predictions of wildfire likelihood, but also enhance understanding of long-term controls on wildfire activity. In addition, our wildfire probability maps provide better information for strategic planning of land-management activities, especially where fire regime knowledge is sparse.
Additional keywords: climate, fuels, ignitions, MaxEnt algorithm, spatial modelling, topography.
References
Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration: guidelines for computing crop water requirements. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56. (Rome, Italy)Archibald S, Roy DP, van Wilgen BM, Scholes RJ (2009) What limits fire? An examination of drivers of burnt area in southern Africa. Global Change Biology 15, 613–630.
| What limits fire? An examination of drivers of burnt area in southern Africa.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Balshi MS, Mcguire AD, Duffy P, Flannigan M, Walsh J, Melillo J (2009) Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach. Global Change Biology 15, 578–600.
| Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Barbour MG, Billings WD (Eds) (2000) ‘North American Terrestrial Vegetation, 2nd Edn.’ (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK)
Bartlein PJ, Hostetler SW, Shafer SL, Holman JO, Solomon AM (2008) Temporal and spatial structure in a daily wildfire-start data set from the western United States (1986–96). International Journal of Wildland Fire 17, 8–17.
| Temporal and spatial structure in a daily wildfire-start data set from the western United States (1986–96).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Bradstock RA (2010) A biogeographic model of fire regimes in Australia: current and future implications. Global Ecology and Biogeography 19, 145–158.
| A biogeographic model of fire regimes in Australia: current and future implications.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Brown KJ, Clark JS, Grimm EC, Donovan JJ, Mueller PG, Hansen BCS, Stefanova I (2005) Fire cycles in North American interior grasslands and their relation to prairie drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 102, 8865–8870.
| Fire cycles in North American interior grasslands and their relation to prairie drought.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD2MXlvF2qur8%3D&md5=13ec87547bc78ceb24fc0387e7cf2b6cCAS |
Cardille JA, Lambois M (2010) From the redwood forest to the Gulf Stream waters: human signature nearly ubiquitous in representative US landscapes. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 8, 130–134.
| From the redwood forest to the Gulf Stream waters: human signature nearly ubiquitous in representative US landscapes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Cardille JA, Ventura SJ, Turner MG (2001) Environmental and social factors influencing wildfires in the Upper Midwest, United States. Ecological Applications 11, 111–127.
| Environmental and social factors influencing wildfires in the Upper Midwest, United States.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Christian HJ, Blakeslee RJ, Boccippio DJ, Boeck WL, Buechler DE, Driscoll KT, Goodman SJ, Hall JM, Koshak WJ, Mach DM, Stewart MF (2003) Global frequency and distribution of lightning as observed from space by the Optical Transient Detector. Journal of Geophysical Research 108, 4005
| Global frequency and distribution of lightning as observed from space by the Optical Transient Detector.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Collins BM, Stephens SL, Moghaddas JJ, Battles J (2010) Challenges and approaches in planning fuel treatments across fire-excluded forested landscapes. Journal of Forestry 108, 24–31.
Crimmins SM, Dobrowski SZ, Greenberg JA, Abatzoglou JT, Mynsberge AR (2011) Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species’ optimum elevations. Science 331, 324–327.
| Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species’ optimum elevations.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BC3MXmsVeqtQ%3D%3D&md5=24a0e2ea071c2f95ad02554b7e8faf1cCAS |
Dickson BG, Prather JW, Xu Y, Hampton HM, Aumack EN, Sisk TD (2006) Mapping the probability of large fire occurrence in northern Arizona, USA. Landscape Ecology 21, 747–761.
| Mapping the probability of large fire occurrence in northern Arizona, USA.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Eidenshink J, Schwind B, Brewer K, Zhu Z-L, Quayle B, Howard S (2007) A project for monitoring trends in burn severity. Fire Ecology 3, 3–21.
| A project for monitoring trends in burn severity.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Elith J, Phillips SJ, Hastie T, Dudík M, Chee YE, Yates CJ (2011) A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Diversity & Distributions 17, 43–57.
| A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
ESRI (2008) ‘Tele Atlas North America: StreetMap 2008 North America.’ (ESRI: Redlands, CA)
Finney M, Grenfell IC, McHugh CW (2009) Modeling containment of large wildfires using generalized linear mixed-model analysis. Forest Science 55, 249–255.
Finney MA, McHugh CW, Grenfell IC, Riley KL, Short KC (2011) A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 25, 973–1000.
| A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Gedalof Z, Peterson DL, Mantua NJ (2005) Atmospheric, climatic, and ecological controls on extreme wildfire years in the north-western United States. Ecological Applications 15, 154–174.
| Atmospheric, climatic, and ecological controls on extreme wildfire years in the north-western United States.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Girardin MP, Ali AA, Carcaillet C, Mudelsee M, Drobyshev I, Hely C, Bergeron Y (2009) Heterogeneous response of circumboreal wildfire risk to climate change since the early 1900s. Global Change Biology 15, 2751–2769.
| Heterogeneous response of circumboreal wildfire risk to climate change since the early 1900s.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Guyette RP, Muzika RM, Dey DC (2002) Dynamics of an anthropogenic fire regime. Ecosystems 5, 472–486.
Hardy CC, Schmidt KM, Menakis JP, Sampson RN (2001) Spatial data for national fire planning and fuel management. International Journal of Wildland Fire 10, 353–372.
| Spatial data for national fire planning and fuel management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Heyerdahl EK, Brubaker LB, Agee JK (2001) Spatial controls of historical fire regimes: a multiscale example from the Interior West, USA. Ecology 82, 660–678.
| Spatial controls of historical fire regimes: a multiscale example from the Interior West, USA.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77, 437–471.
| The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Krawchuk MA, Moritz MA, Parisien M-A, Van Dorn J, Hayhoe K (2009) Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire. PLoS ONE 4, e5102
| Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Leu M, Hanser SE, Knick ST (2008) The human footprint in the West: a large-scale analysis of anthropogenic impacts. Ecological Applications 18, 1119–1139.
| The human footprint in the West: a large-scale analysis of anthropogenic impacts.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Littell JS, Gwozdz R (2011) Climatic water balance and regional fire years in the Pacific Northwest, USA: linking regional climate and fire at landscape scales. In ‘The Landscape Ecology of Fire, Ecological Studies 213’. (Eds D McKenzie, C Miller, DA Falk) pp. 117–139. (Springer Science+Business Media)
Littell JS, McKenzie D, Peterson DL, Westerling AL (2009) Climate and wildfire area burned in western US ecoprovinces, 1916–2003. Ecological Applications 19, 1003–1021.
| Climate and wildfire area burned in western US ecoprovinces, 1916–2003.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Liu C, Berry PM, Dawson TP, Pearson RG (2005) Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions. Ecography 28, 385–393.
| Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Lutz JA, van Wagtendonk JW, Franklin JF (2010) Climatic water deficit, tree species ranges, and climate change in Yosemite National Park. Journal of Biogeography 37, 936–950.
| Climatic water deficit, tree species ranges, and climate change in Yosemite National Park.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Marlon JR, Bartlein PJ, Carcaillet C, Gavin DG, Harrison SP, Higuera PE, Joos F, Power MJ, Prentice IC (2008) Climate and human influences on global biomass burning over the past two millennia. Nature Geoscience 1, 697–702.
| Climate and human influences on global biomass burning over the past two millennia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD1cXhtFOlur7E&md5=b7ec71056c864dfcd2db94be9b631e73CAS |
McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration of time scales. In ‘Proceedings of the Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology’, 17–23 January 1993, Anaheim, CA. pp. 179–186. (American Meteorological Society: Boston, MA)
McKenney DW, Papadopol P, Lawrence K, Campbell K, Hutchinson MF (2007) Customized spatial climate models for Canada. Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Technical Note 108. (Sault Ste Marie, ON)
McKenzie D, Gedalof Z, Peterson DL, Mote P (2004) Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation. Conservation Biology 18, 890–902.
| Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Mermoz M, Kitzberger T, Veblen TT (2005) Landscape influences on occurrence and spread of wildfires in Patagonian forests and shrublands. Ecology 86, 2705–2715.
| Landscape influences on occurrence and spread of wildfires in Patagonian forests and shrublands.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Meyn A, Schmidtlein A, Taylor SW, Girardin MP, Thonicke K, Cramer W (2010) Spatial variation of trends in wildfire and summer drought in British Columbia, Canada, 1920–2000. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19, 272–283.
| Spatial variation of trends in wildfire and summer drought in British Columbia, Canada, 1920–2000.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Moritz MA, Morais ME, Summerell LA, Carlson JM, Doyle J (2005) Wildfires, complexity, and highly optimized tolerance. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 102, 17 912–17 917.
| Wildfires, complexity, and highly optimized tolerance.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD2MXhtlersr7L&md5=bd33800de9d1a39b8f620b18b8bd89faCAS |
Parisien M-A, Moritz MA (2009) Environmental controls on the distribution of wildfire at multiple spatial scales. Ecological Monographs 79, 127–154.
| Environmental controls on the distribution of wildfire at multiple spatial scales.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Parisien M-A, Peters VS, Wang Y, Little JM, Bosch EM, Stocks BJ (2006) Spatial patterns of forest fires in Canada, 1980–1999. International Journal of Wildland Fire 15, 361–374.
| Spatial patterns of forest fires in Canada, 1980–1999.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Parisien M-A, Parks SA, Krawchuk MA, Flannigan MD, Bowman LM, Moritz MA (2011) Scale-dependent factors controlling area burned in boreal Canada. Ecological Applications 21, 789–805.
Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Shapire RE (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling 190, 231–259.
| Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Preisler HK, Burgan RE, Eidenshink JC, Klaver JM, Klaver RW (2009) Forecasting distributions of large Federal-lands fires utilizing satellite and gridded weather information. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, 508–516.
| Forecasting distributions of large Federal-lands fires utilizing satellite and gridded weather information.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
PRISM Group (2004) Climate normals, 1971–2000. (Oregon State University: Corvallis, OR). Available at http://www.prismclimate.org [Verified 1 June 2010]
Rorig ML, Ferguson SA (1999) Characteristics of lightning and wildland fire ignition in the Pacific Northwest. Journal of Applied Meteorology 38, 1565–1575.
| Characteristics of lightning and wildland fire ignition in the Pacific Northwest.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Russell-Smith J, Yates CP, Whitehead PJ, Smith R, Craig R, Allan GE, Thackway R, Frakes I, Cridland S, Meyer MC, Gill AM (2007) Bushfire ‘Down Under’: patterns and implications of contemporary Australian burning. International Journal of Wildland Fire 16, 361–377.
| Bushfire ‘Down Under’: patterns and implications of contemporary Australian burning.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Schoennagel T, Nelson CR (2011) Restoration relevance of National Fire Plan treatments across the western US. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 9, 271–277.
| Restoration relevance of National Fire Plan treatments across the western US.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Schoennagel T, Veblen TT, Romme WH (2004) The interaction of fire, fuels and climate across Rocky Mountain forests. Bioscience 54, 661–676.
| The interaction of fire, fuels and climate across Rocky Mountain forests.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Skinner WR, Stocks BJ, Martell DL, Bonsal B, Shabbar A (1999) The association between circulation anomalies in the mid-troposphere and area burned by wildland fire in Canada. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 63, 89–105.
| The association between circulation anomalies in the mid-troposphere and area burned by wildland fire in Canada.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stambaugh MC, Guyette RP (2008) Predicting spatio-temporal variability in fire return intervals using a topographic roughness index. Forest Ecology and Management 254, 463–473.
| Predicting spatio-temporal variability in fire return intervals using a topographic roughness index.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stephens SL (2005) Forest fire causes and extent on United States Forest Service lands. International Journal of Wildland Fire 14, 213–222.
| Forest fire causes and extent on United States Forest Service lands.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stephens SL, Ruth LW (2005) Federal forest fire policy in the United States. Ecological Applications 15, 532–542.
| Federal forest fire policy in the United States.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stephens SL, Martin RE, Clinton NE (2007) Prehistoric fire area and emissions from California’s forests, woodlands, shrublands, and grasslands. Forest Ecology and Management 251, 205–216.
| Prehistoric fire area and emissions from California’s forests, woodlands, shrublands, and grasslands.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stephenson NL (1990) Climatic control of vegetation distribution: the role of the water balance. American Naturalist 135, 649–670.
| Climatic control of vegetation distribution: the role of the water balance.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stephenson NL (1998) Actual evapotranspiration and deficit: biologically meaningful correlates of vegetation distribution across spatial scales. Journal of Biogeography 25, 855–870.
| Actual evapotranspiration and deficit: biologically meaningful correlates of vegetation distribution across spatial scales.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Stocks BJ, Mason JA, Todd JB, Bosch EM, Wotton BM, Amiro BD, Flannigan MD, Hirsch KG, Logan KA, Martell DL, Skinner WR (2002) Large forest fires in Canada, 1959–1997. Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres 108, FFR5-1–FFR5-12.
Strauss D, Bednar L, Mees R (1989) Do one percent of the forest fires cause ninety-nine percent of the damage? Forest Science 35, 319–328.
Sturtevant BR, Cleland DT (2007) Human and biophysical factors influencing modern fire disturbance in northern Wisconsin. International Journal of Wildland Fire 16, 398–413.
| Human and biophysical factors influencing modern fire disturbance in northern Wisconsin.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Syphard AD, Radeloff VC, Keeley JE, Hawbaker TJ, Clayton MK, Stewart SI, Hammer RB (2007) Human influence on California fire regimes. Ecological Applications 17, 1388–1402.
| Human influence on California fire regimes.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Syphard AD, Radeloff VC, Keuler NS, Taylor RS, Hawbaker TJ, Stewart SI, Clayton MK (2008) Predicting spatial patterns of fire on a southern California landscape. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17, 602–613.
| Predicting spatial patterns of fire on a southern California landscape.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Theobald DM, Romme WH (2007) Expansion of the US wildland–urban interface. Landscape and Urban Planning 83, 340–354.
| Expansion of the US wildland–urban interface.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
US Geological Survey (2000) Global 30 Arc-Second Elevation Data Set. (EROS Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center: Sioux Falls, SD). Available at http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/gtopo30/gtopo30.html [Verified 20 June 2010]
US Geological Survey (2010) National Land Cover, Version 1. National Biological Information Infrastructure, Gap Analysis Program (GAP). Available at http://gapanalysis.usgs.gov/data/land-cover-data [Verified 20 June 2010]
Watts RD, Compton RW, McCammon JH, Rich CL, Wright SM, Owens T, Ouren DS (2007) Roadless space of the conterminous United States. Science 316, 736–738.
| Roadless space of the conterminous United States.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD2sXkvVWrsb4%3D&md5=7dc239d8c71e4f54709691e19b0b3325CAS |
Westerling AL, Hidalgo HG, Cayan DR, Swetnam TW (2006) Warming and earlier spring increases western US forest wildfire activity. Science 313, 940–943.
| Warming and earlier spring increases western US forest wildfire activity.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD28XotFCitbo%3D&md5=a37918f019668e71ec326302a8bbaf60CAS |
Zhao MS, Heinsch FA, Nemani RR, Running SW (2005) Improvements of the MODIS terrestrial gross and net primary production global data set. Remote Sensing of Environment 95, 164–176.
| Improvements of the MODIS terrestrial gross and net primary production global data set.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
