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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Contents Vol 18(8)

An approach to operational forest fire growth predictions for Canada

K. R. Anderson A C , P. Englefield A , J. M. Little A and Gerhard Reuter B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, 5320-122 Street, Edmonton, AB, T6H 3S5, Canada.

B University of Alberta, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, 1-26 Earth Sciences Building, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2E3, Canada.

C Corresponding author. Email: kanderso@nrcan.gc.ca.

International Journal of Wildland Fire 18(8) 893-905 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF08046
Submitted: 1 April 2008  Accepted: 21 April 2009   Published: 9 December 2009

Abstract

This paper presents an operational approach to predicting fire growth for wildland fires in Canada. The approach addresses data assimilation to provide predictions in a timely and efficient manner. Fuels and elevation grids, forecast weather, and active fire locations are entered into a fire-growth model; then predicted fire perimeters are mapped and presented on the web. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA/AVHRR) satellite-based detection systems are used to detect current wildland fires (referred to as hotspots). For selected regions, fire-growth simulation environments are assembled. Fuel type data from several fire management agencies are available in grid format at a resolution of 100 m or less; in areas where such data are not available, a national fuels map based on Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre Vegetation sensor (SPOT VGT) land cover and forest inventory is used. Similarly, terrain data are available from a variety of sources. Current hotspots are used as ignition points while past hotspots are used to delineate area burned. Surface wind, temperature, and dew-point values (forecast by Environment Canada) are used to determine the fire weather conditions at the fire location. A case study of two large fires in Canada consisting of 54 fire simulation days is used to test these hypotheses.

Additional keywords: fire detection, fire-growth modelling, Wood Buffalo National Park.


Acknowledgements

We thank Parks Canada staff for their support and assistance in providing the necessary fuels and topographic information (including Tanya Letcher for her description of the cause and behavior of the Boyer Rapids fires and Dan Perrakis for his description of fire prediction efforts used on these fires); the Canadian Meteorological Centre for providing the forecast weather information; and the University of Maryland Department of Geography and the NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service for providing the hotspot data. We also thank Mike Flannigan (Canadian Forest Service) and Paul Myers (University of Alberta) for their helpful comments.


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