Modeling and mapping wildfire ignition risk in Portugal
Filipe X. Catry A C , Francisco C. Rego A , Fernando L. Bação B and Francisco Moreira A
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Centre of Applied Ecology ‘Prof. Baeta Neves’, Institute of Agronomy, Technical University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal.
B Institute of Statistics and Information Management, New University of Lisbon, Campus de Campolide, 1070-312 Lisbon, Portugal.
C Corresponding author. Email: fcatry@isa.utl.pt
International Journal of Wildland Fire 18(8) 921-931 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF07123
Submitted: 25 August 2007 Accepted: 30 January 2009 Published: 9 December 2009
Abstract
Portugal has the highest density of wildfire ignitions among southern European countries. The ability to predict the spatial patterns of ignitions constitutes an important tool for managers, helping to improve the effectiveness of fire prevention, detection and firefighting resources allocation. In this study, we analyzed 127 490 ignitions that occurred in Portugal during a 5-year period. We used logistic regression models to predict the likelihood of ignition occurrence, using a set of potentially explanatory variables, and produced an ignition risk map for the Portuguese mainland. Results show that population density, human accessibility, land cover and elevation are important determinants of spatial distribution of fire ignitions. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is possible to predict the spatial patterns of ignitions at the national level with good accuracy and using a small number of easily obtainable variables, which can be useful in decision-making for wildfire management.
Additional keywords: geographic information systems, ignition occurrence, logistic regression, spatial patterns.
Acknowledgements
We acknowledge the Portuguese Forest Services (DGRF) for all collaboration and for making available the wildfire database. We acknowledge Paula Lopes, António Nunes and Vasco Nunes for their help on preliminary data processing. We also acknowledge several important comments made by three anonymous reviewers, which contributed to improve this paper. Part of this study was supported by the European Commission under the 6th Framework Program through the Integrated Project ‘Fire Paradox’ (contract no. FP6–018505), and by Instituto de Financiamento da Agricultura e Pescas through the project ‘Recuperação de Áreas Ardidas’.
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