Examining the relationship between elections and wildfires
Yiannis Kountouris
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
Centre for Environmental Policy and Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society, Imperial College London, Weeks Building, 16–18 Prince’s Gardens, London, SW7 1NE, UK. Email: i.kountouris@imperial.ac.uk
International Journal of Wildland Fire 30(1) 6-17 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF19130
Submitted: 23 August 2019 Accepted: 16 September 2020 Published: 4 November 2020
Abstract
This paper examines the relationship between local elections and wildfire. Using data of wildfires in Greek municipalities between 2000 and 2010, I estimate models comparing wildfire outcomes in local election years against non-election years. I find that wildfire occurrence and burned area are systematically lower in the years around local elections. In municipalities where incumbents run for re-election, the decrease in wildfire occurrence is smaller in the years leading to elections, and larger in the years following local elections. There is some limited evidence that the likelihood of re-election influences wildfire outcomes around the time of local elections. The results suggest a relationship can exist between politics at the local level, wildfire occurrence and burned area. As political and economic considerations can be important in driving wildfire outcomes, assessing wildfire risk cannot take place separately from the prevailing political, economic and institutional environment.
Keywords: burned area, elections, electoral cycles, wildfire occurrence, wildfires.
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