What are the drivers of dangerous fires in Mediterranean France?
S. Lahaye A B C F , T. Curt D , T. Fréjaville E , J. Sharples C , L. Paradis B and C. Hély B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Service Départemental d’Incendie et de Secours des Bouches-du-Rhône, 1 Avenue de Boisbaudran 13326 Marseille, France.
B Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier (ISEM), Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes, Paris Sciences et Lettres Research University, Université de Montpellier, Place Eugène Bataillon, CC 065, 34095 Montpellier, France.
C School of Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences, University of New South Wales (UNSW), Canberra ACT 2600, Australia.
D Irstea Mediterranean Ecosystems and Risks, Route Cézanne, 13182 Aix-en-Provence Cedex 5, France.
E BIOGECO (Unité Mixte de Recherche 1202), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Université de Bordeaux, 33615 Pessac, France.
F Corresponding author. Email: s.lahaye@adfa.edu.au
International Journal of Wildland Fire 27(3) 155-163 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17087
Submitted: 24 May 2017 Accepted: 11 February 2018 Published: 28 March 2018
Abstract
Wildfire containment is often very challenging for firefighters, especially for large and rapidly spreading fires where the risk of firefighter entrapment is high. However, the conditions leading to these ‘dangerous’ fires are poorly understood in Mediterranean Europe. Here, we analyse reports and interviews of firefighters over the last 40 years in four regions of south-eastern France and investigate the weather conditions that induce large fires, fast-growing fires and fires that are conducive to entrapment. We adopt a quantile regression model to test the effect of weather conditions across different fire sizes and growth rates. The results show that strong winds drive the largest fires everywhere except in Corsica, the southernmost region, where high temperature is the main driver. Strong winds also drive entrapments whereas high temperatures induce rapidly spreading fires. This emphasises that wind-driven fire is the dominant pattern of dangerous fires in France, but it reveals that large ‘convective’ fires can also present considerable danger. Beyond that, the Fire Weather Index appears to be a good predictor of large fires and fires conducive to entrapments. Identifying weather conditions that drive ‘dangerous’ wildfires will provide useful information for fire agencies to better prepare for adverse fire behaviours.
Additional keywords: entrapment, Fire Weather Index, firefighter safety, growth rate, high temperature, large fires, quantile regression, strong wind.
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