Development and validation of a model for predicting fire behaviour in spinifex grasslands of arid Australia
Neil Burrows A D , Malcolm Gill B and Jason Sharples C
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Science and Conservation Division, Department of Parks and Wildlife, Kensington, WA 6151, Australia.
B Retired from Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2600, Australia.
C School of Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences, University of New South Wales, Canberra, ACT 2610, Australia.
D Corresponding author. Email: neil.burrows@dbca.wa.gov.au
International Journal of Wildland Fire 27(4) 271-279 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17155
Submitted: 9 October 2017 Accepted: 1 March 2018 Published: 10 April 2018
Abstract
Large wildfires are common in spinifex grasslands of arid Australia. Threat mitigation measures including fire preparedness, prescribed burning and wildfire suppression are greatly enhanced by the ability to predict fire behaviour. The new spinifex fire behaviour model presented here was developed and validated from 186 experimental fires across a wide range of fuel and weather conditions. Because spinifex fuels are discontinuous, modelling is a two-step process; once ignition is achieved, the first step is to determine the likelihood of fire spread, which is dependent on conditions of wind speed, fuel cover and fuel moisture content. If spread thresholds are met, the second step is to predict rate of spread and flame height using the same three independent variables. Thirty-six of the 186 experimental fires not used in modelling were used to validate the model, which proved to be reasonably accurate and an improvement on the previous model.
Additional keywords: arid zone, desert, discontinuous fuel, prescribed burning, wildfire.
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