Predicting wildfire spread and behaviour in Mediterranean landscapes
Michele Salis A B I , Bachisio Arca C , Fermin Alcasena D , Margarita Arianoutsou E , Valentina Bacciu B , Pierpaolo Duce C , Beatriz Duguy F , Nikos Koutsias G , Giorgos Mallinis E , Ioannis Mitsopoulos E , José M. Moreno H , José Ramón Pérez H , Itziar R. Urbieta H , Fotios Xystrakis G , Gonzalo Zavala H and Donatella Spano A B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A University of Sassari, Department of Science for Nature and Environmental Resources (DIPNET), Via Enrico De Nicola 9, 07100, Sassari, Italy.
B Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (IAFES) Division, Via De Nicola 9, 07100, Sassari, Italy.
C National Research Council (CNR), Institute of Biometeorology (IBIMET), Traversa La Crucca 3, 07100, Sassari, Italy.
D University of Lleida, Agriculture and Forest Engineering Department (EAGROF), Alcalde Rovira Roure 191, 25198, Lleida, Spain.
E University of Athens, School of Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Department of Ecology and Systematics, Panepistimiopolis, 15784, Athens, Greece.
F University of Barcelona, Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Avinguda Diagonal 643, 08028, Barcelona, Spain.
G University of Patras, Department of Environmental and Natural Resources Management, G. Seferi 2, 30100, Agrinio, Greece.
H University of Castilla–La Mancha, Department of Environmental Sciences, Avenida Carlos III, 45071, Toledo, Spain.
I Corresponding author. Email: miksalis@uniss.it
International Journal of Wildland Fire 25(10) 1015-1032 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF15081
Submitted: 7 April 2015 Accepted: 10 June 2016 Published: 2 August 2016
Abstract
The use of spatially explicit fire spread models to assess fire propagation and behaviour has several applications for fire management and research. We used the FARSITE simulator to predict the spread of a set of wildfires that occurred along an east–west gradient of the Euro-Mediterranean countries. The main purpose of this work was to evaluate the overall accuracy of the simulator and to quantify the effects of standard vs custom fuel models on fire simulation performance. We also analysed the effects of different fuel models and slope classes on the accuracy of FARSITE predictions. To run the simulations, several input layers describing each study area were acquired, and their effect on simulation outputs was analysed. Site-specific fuel models and canopy inputs were derived either from existing vegetation information and field sampling or through remote-sensing data. The custom fuel models produced an increase in simulation accuracy, and results were nearly unequivocal for all the case studies examined. We suggest that spatially explicit fire spread simulators and custom fuel models specifically developed for the heterogeneous landscapes of Mediterranean ecosystems can help improve fire hazard mapping and optimise fuel management practices across the Euro-Mediterranean region.
Additional keywords: ecosystems, fire management, fuel, modelling, propagation.
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