Free Standard AU & NZ Shipping For All Book Orders Over $80!
Register      Login
Pacific Conservation Biology Pacific Conservation Biology Society
A journal dedicated to conservation and wildlife management in the Pacific region.
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Linking social and biophysical systems to inform long-term, strategic management of coral reefs

Micheli D. P. Costa https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4849-2628 A B I , Russell Gorddard C , Pedro Fidelman D , Kate J. Helmstedt E , Kenneth R. N. Anthony A F , Kerrie A. Wilson G and Hawthorne L. Beyer H
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Vic. 3125, Australia.

B School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia.

C CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia.

D Centre for Policy Futures, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia.

E School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Qld 4000, Australia.

F Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville MC, Townsville, Qld 4810, Australia.

G Institute for Future Environments, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Qld 4000, Australia.

H School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia.

I Corresponding author. Email: micheli.costa@deakin.edu.au

Pacific Conservation Biology 27(2) 126-132 https://doi.org/10.1071/PC20002
Submitted: 15 January 2020  Accepted: 3 August 2020   Published: 16 September 2020

Abstract

Coral reefs are one of the ecosystems most sensitive to climate change. The recent loss and degradation of coral reef ecosystems is expected to continue even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. There is therefore an urgent need to develop new technologies and management approaches to coral reef conservation. Emerging technologies, however, bring new challenges for decision making as they are associated with novel risks and impacts on the reef system. We argue that accounting for multiple biophysical thresholds and identifying key decisions in the planning process are crucial to avoid perverse outcomes in coral reef conservation. We identify opportunities to apply an Adaptation Pathways (AP) framework combined with a ‘values, rules and knowledge’ approach to facilitate long-term and large-scale coral reef conservation by explicitly considering uncertainty with climate change impacts in the decision-making process. The AP process can be used to reconcile the diverse values of stakeholders, scientific and cultural knowledge about the system, and the policy and regulatory context within which management must occur, in order to achieve robust long-term management.

Additional keywords: Adaptation Pathways, adaptation options, climate change, coral reef conservation, decline, ecological resilience, ecosystem adaptation, emission reductions, global warming, management, mass bleaching, multiple threats, ocean warming, pre-industrial, planning, risks, rules and knowledge approach, technologies, values, VRK.


References

AIMS (2019). Long-term Reef Monitoring Program - Annual Summary Report on coral reef condition for 2018/19. Available at https://www.aims.gov.au/reef-monitoring/gbr-condition-summary-2018-2019 [accessed 2 July 2020].

Anthony, K. R. N. (2016). Coral reefs under climate change and ocean acidification: challenges and opportunities for management and policy. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 41, 59–81.
Coral reefs under climate change and ocean acidification: challenges and opportunities for management and policy.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Anthony, K., Bay, L. K., Costanza, R., Firn, J., Gunn, J., Harrison, P., Heyward, A., Lundgren, P., Mead, D., Moore, T., Mumby, P. J., van Oppen, M. J. H., Robertson, J., Runge, M. C., Suggett, D. J., Schaffelke, B., Wachenfeld, D., and Walshe, T. (2017). New interventions are needed to save coral reefs. Nature Ecology & Evolution 1, 1420–1422.
New interventions are needed to save coral reefs.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Bloemen, P., Reeder, T., Zevenbergen, C., Rijke, J., and Kingsborough, A. (2018). Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 23, 1083–1108.
Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 30174540PubMed |

Bosomworth, K., Harwood, A., Leith, P. and Wallis, P. (2015). Adaptation Pathways: a playbook for developing options for climate change adaptation in Natural Resource Management. Southern Slopes Climate Change Adaptation Research Partnership (SCARP): RMIT University, University of Tasmania, and Monash University.

Bosomworth, K., Leith, P., Harwood, A., and Wallis, P. J. (2017). What’s the problem in adaptation pathways planning? The potential of a diagnostic problem-structuring approach. Environmental Science & Policy 76, 23–28.
What’s the problem in adaptation pathways planning? The potential of a diagnostic problem-structuring approach.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Bosomworth, K., Scott, H., Wilson, J., Pitfield, C., Brunt, K., Brown, G. and Johnson, F. (2018). Exploring ‘Adaptation Pathways’ planning through an NRM lens: a report of two exploratory case studies. RMIT University.

Bozec, Y.-M., O’Farrell, S., Bruggemann, J. H., Luckhurst, B. E., and Mumby, P. J. (2016). Tradeoffs between fisheries harvest and the resilience of coral reefs. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, 4536 LP–4541.
Tradeoffs between fisheries harvest and the resilience of coral reefs.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Brewer, T. D., Cinner, J. E., Green, A., and Pandolfi, J. M. (2009). Thresholds and multiple scale interaction of environment, resource use, and market proximity on reef fishery resources in the Solomon Islands. Biological Conservation 142, 1797–1807.
Thresholds and multiple scale interaction of environment, resource use, and market proximity on reef fishery resources in the Solomon Islands.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Brown, C. J., Saunders, M. I., Possingham, H. P., and Richardson, A. J. (2013). Managing for interactions between local and global stressors of ecosystems. PLOS ONE 8, e65765.
Managing for interactions between local and global stressors of ecosystems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 23776542PubMed |

Buurman, J., and Babovic, V. (2016). Adaptation Pathways and Real Options Analysis: an approach to deep uncertainty in climate change adaptation policies. Policy and Society 35, 137–150.
Adaptation Pathways and Real Options Analysis: an approach to deep uncertainty in climate change adaptation policies.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Cinner, J. E. and Kittinge, J. N. (2015). Linkages between social systems and coral reefs. In Ecology of Fishes on Coral Reefs. (Ed. C. Mora) pp. 215–220. (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.)

Colloff, M. J., Lavorel, S., van Kerkhoff, L. E., Wyborn, C. A., Fazey, I., Gorddard, R., Mace, G. M., Foden, W. B., Dunlop, M., Prentice, I. C., Crowley, J., Leadley, P., and Degeorges, P. (2017a). Transforming conservation science and practice for a postnormal world. Conservation Biology 31, 1008–1017.
Transforming conservation science and practice for a postnormal world.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 28225163PubMed |

Colloff, M. J., Martín-López, B., Lavorel, S., Locatelli, B., Gorddard, R., Longaretti, P.-Y., Walters, G., van Kerkhoff, L., Wyborn, C., Coreau, A., Wise, R. M., Dunlop, M., Degeorges, P., Grantham, H., Overton, I. C., Williams, R. D., Doherty, M. D., Capon, T., Sanderson, T., and Murphy, H. T. (2017b). An integrative research framework for enabling transformative adaptation. Environmental Science & Policy 68, 87–96.
An integrative research framework for enabling transformative adaptation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Costanza, R., de Groot, R., Sutton, P., van der Ploeg, S., Anderson, S. J., Kubiszewski, I., Farber, S., and Turner, R. K. (2014). Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. Global Environmental Change 26, 152–158.
Changes in the global value of ecosystem services.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Côté, I. M., Darling, E. S., and Brown, C. J. (2016). Interactions among ecosystem stressors and their importance in conservation. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 283, 20152592.
Interactions among ecosystem stressors and their importance in conservation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 26865306PubMed |

Dakos, V., Matthews, B., Hendry, A. P., Levine, J., Loeuille, N., Norberg, J., Nosil, P., Scheffer, M., and De Meester, L. (2019). Ecosystem tipping points in an evolving world. Nature Ecology & Evolution 3, 355–362.
Ecosystem tipping points in an evolving world.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Darling, E. S., and Côté, I. M. (2018). Seeking resilience in marine ecosystems. Science 359, 986 LP–987.
Seeking resilience in marine ecosystems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

deYoung, B., Barange, M., Beaugrand, G., Harris, R., Perry, R. I., Scheffer, M., and Werner, F. (2008). Regime shifts in marine ecosystems: detection, prediction and management. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 23, 402–409.
Regime shifts in marine ecosystems: detection, prediction and management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Donovan, M. K., Friedlander, A. M., Lecky, J., Jouffray, J.-B., Williams, G. J., Wedding, L. M., Crowder, L. B., Erickson, A. L., Graham, N. A. J., Gove, J. M., Kappel, C. V, Karr, K., Kittinger, J. N., Norström, A. V, Nyström, M., Oleson, K. L. L., Stamoulis, K. A., White, C., Williams, I. D., and Selkoe, K. A. (2018). Combining fish and benthic communities into multiple regimes reveals complex reef dynamics. Scientific Reports 8, 16943.
Combining fish and benthic communities into multiple regimes reveals complex reef dynamics.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 30446687PubMed |

Fazey, I., Wise, R. M., Lyon, C., Câmpeanu, C., Moug, P., and Davies, T. E. (2016). Past and future adaptation pathways. Climate and Development 8, 26–44.
Past and future adaptation pathways.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Fidelman, P., McGrath, C., Newlands, M., Dobbs, K., Jago, B., and Hussey, K. (2019). Regulatory implications of coral reef restoration and adaptation under a changing climate. Environmental Science & Policy 100, 221–229.
Regulatory implications of coral reef restoration and adaptation under a changing climate.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Folke, C. (2006). Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social–ecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change 16, 253–267.
Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social–ecological systems analyses.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Forster, J., Turner, R. A., Fitzsimmons, C., Peterson, A. M., Mahon, R., and Stead, S. M. (2017). Evidence of a common understanding of proximate and distal drivers of reef health. Marine Policy 84, 263–272.
Evidence of a common understanding of proximate and distal drivers of reef health.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Gorddard, R., Colloff, M. J., Wise, R. M., Ware, D., and Dunlop, M. (2016). Values, rules and knowledge: Adaptation as change in the decision context. Environmental Science & Policy 57, 60–69.
Values, rules and knowledge: Adaptation as change in the decision context.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Graham, N. A. J., Cinner, J. E., Norström, A. V, and Nyström, M. (2014). Coral reefs as novel ecosystems: embracing new futures. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 7, 9–14.
Coral reefs as novel ecosystems: embracing new futures.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

van Grieken, M. E., Roebeling, P. C., Bohnet, I. C., Whitten, S. M., Webster, A. J., Poggio, M., and Pannell, D. (2019). Adoption of agricultural management for Great Barrier Reef water quality improvement in heterogeneous farming communities. Agricultural Systems 170, 1–8.
Adoption of agricultural management for Great Barrier Reef water quality improvement in heterogeneous farming communities.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J. H., Walker, W. E., and ter Maat, J. (2013). Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world. Global Environmental Change 23, 485–498.
Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Harvey, B. J., Nash, K. L., Blanchard, J. L., and Edwards, D. P. (2018). Ecosystem‐based management of coral reefs under climate change. Ecology and Evolution 8, 6354–6368.
Ecosystem‐based management of coral reefs under climate change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 29988420PubMed |

Heron, S. F., Eakin, C. M., Douvere, F., Anderson, K., Day, J. C., Geiger, E., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Van Hooidonk, R., Hughes, T., Marshall, P. and Obura, D. (2017). Impacts of climate change on World Heritage coral reefs: a first global scientific assessment. (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization World Heritage Centre: Paris.)

Hobbs, R. J., Higgs, E., Hall, C. M., Bridgewater, P., Chapin, F. S., Ellis, E. C., Ewel, J. J., Hallett, L. M., Harris, J., Hulvey, K. B., Jackson, S. T., Kennedy, P. L., Kueffer, C., Lach, L., Lantz, T. C., Lugo, A. E., Mascaro, J., Murphy, S. D., Nelson, C. R., Perring, M. P., Richardson, D. M., Seastedt, T. R., Standish, R. J., Starzomski, B. M., Suding, K. N., Tognetti, P. M., Yakob, L., and Yung, L. (2014). Managing the whole landscape: historical, hybrid, and novel ecosystems. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 12, 557–564.
Managing the whole landscape: historical, hybrid, and novel ecosystems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hobbs, R. J., Higgs, E., and Harris, J. A. (2009). Novel ecosystems: implications for conservation and restoration. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 24, 599–605.
Novel ecosystems: implications for conservation and restoration.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hoegh-Guldberg, O. et al. (2015). Reviving the Ocean Economy: The case for action - 2015. (Eds J. Tanzer, P. Gamblin, and V. Burgener) (WWF International: Gland, Switzerland.)

Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Poloczanska, E. S., Skirving, W., and Dove, S. (2017). Coral reef ecosystems under climate change and ocean acidification. Frontiers in Marine Science 4, 158.
Coral reef ecosystems under climate change and ocean acidification.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Kennedy, E. V, Beyer, H. L., McClennen, C., and Possingham, H. P. (2018). Securing a Long-term Future for Coral Reefs. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 33, 936–944.
Securing a Long-term Future for Coral Reefs.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hughes, T. P., Barnes, M. L., Bellwood, D. R., Cinner, J. E., Cumming, G. S., Jackson, J. B. C., Kleypas, J., van de Leemput, I. A., Lough, J. M., Morrison, T. H., Palumbi, S. R., van Nes, E. H., and Scheffer, M. (2017a). Coral reefs in the Anthropocene. Nature 546, 82–90.
Coral reefs in the Anthropocene.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 28569801PubMed |

Hughes, T. P., Kerry, J. T., Álvarez-Noriega, M., Álvarez-Romero, J. G., Anderson, K. D., Baird, A. H., Babcock, R. C., Beger, M., Bellwood, D. R., Berkelmans, R., Bridge, T. C., Butler, I. R., Byrne, M., Cantin, N. E., Comeau, S., Connolly, S. R., Cumming, G. S., Dalton, S. J., Diaz-Pulido, G., Eakin, C. M., Figueira, W. F., Gilmour, J. P., Harrison, H. B., Heron, S. F., Hoey, A. S., Hobbs, J.-P. A., Hoogenboom, M. O., Kennedy, E. V., Kuo, C., Lough, J. M., Lowe, R. J., Liu, G., McCulloch, M. T., Malcolm, H. A., McWilliam, M. J., Pandolfi, J. M., Pears, R. J., Pratchett, M. S., Schoepf, V., Simpson, T., Skirving, W. J., Sommer, B., Torda, G., Wachenfeld, D. R., Willis, B. L., and Wilson, S. K. (2017b). Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals. Nature 543, 373–377.
Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 28300113PubMed |

Hughes, T. P., Anderson, K. D., Connolly, S. R., Heron, S. F., Kerry, J. T., Lough, J. M., Baird, A. H., Baum, J. K., Berumen, M. L., Bridge, T. C., Claar, D. C., Eakin, C. M., Gilmour, J. P., Graham, N. A. J., Harrison, H., Hobbs, J.-P. A., Hoey, A. S., Hoogenboom, M., Lowe, R. J., McCulloch, M. T., Pandolfi, J. M., Pratchett, M., Schoepf, V., Torda, G., and Wilson, S. K. (2018). Spatial and temporal patterns of mass bleaching of corals in the Anthropocene. Science 359, 80 LP–83.
Spatial and temporal patterns of mass bleaching of corals in the Anthropocene.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Hughes, T. P., Kerry, J. T., Baird, A. H., Connolly, S. R., Chase, T. J., Dietzel, A., Hill, T., Hoey, A. S., Hoogenboom, M. O., Jacobson, M., Kerswell, A., Madin, J. S., Mieog, A., Paley, A. S., Pratchett, M. S., Torda, G., and Woods, R. M. (2019). Global warming impairs stock-recruitment dynamics of corals. 568, 387–390.
Global warming impairs stock-recruitment dynamics of corals.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 30944475PubMed |

Ingeman, K. E., Samhouri, J. F., and Stier, A. C. (2019). Ocean recoveries for tomorrow’s Earth: hitting a moving target. Science 363, eaav1004.
Ocean recoveries for tomorrow’s Earth: hitting a moving target.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 30679339PubMed |

IPCC (2018). Global Warming of 1.5°C: An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change. (Eds V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield) Available at https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/download/.

Kareiva, P., Watts, S., McDonald, R., and Boucher, T. (2007). Domesticated Nature: Shaping Landscapes and Ecosystems for Human Welfare. Science 316, 1866 LP–1869.
Domesticated Nature: Shaping Landscapes and Ecosystems for Human Welfare.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

van Kerkhoff, L., Munera, C., Dudley, N., Guevara, O., Wyborn, C., Figueroa, C., Dunlop, M., Hoyos, M. A., Castiblanco, J., and Becerra, L. (2018). Towards future-oriented conservation: Managing protected areas in an era of climate change. Ambio 48, 699–713.
Towards future-oriented conservation: Managing protected areas in an era of climate change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 30448995PubMed |

Larrosa, C., Carrasco, L. R., and Milner-Gulland, E. J. (2016). Unintended feedbacks: challenges and opportunities for improving conservation effectiveness. Conservation Letters 9, 316–326.
Unintended feedbacks: challenges and opportunities for improving conservation effectiveness.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Latham, J., Kleypas, J., Hauser, R., Parkes, B., and Gadian, A. (2013). Can marine cloud brightening reduce coral bleaching? Atmospheric Science Letters 14, 214–219.
Can marine cloud brightening reduce coral bleaching?Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Lavorel, S., Colloff, M. J., Locatelli, B., Gorddard, R., Prober, S. M., Gabillet, M., Devaux, C., Laforgue, D., and Peyrache-Gadeau, V. (2019). Mustering the power of ecosystems for adaptation to climate change. Environmental Science & Policy 92, 87–97.
Mustering the power of ecosystems for adaptation to climate change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Lindenmayer, D., Messier, C., and Sato, C. (2016). Avoiding ecosystem collapse in managed forest ecosystems. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 14, 561–568.
Avoiding ecosystem collapse in managed forest ecosystems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

McDonald, J., McGee, J., Brent, K., and Burns, W. (2019). Governing geoengineering research for the Great Barrier Reef. Climate Policy 19, 801–811.
Governing geoengineering research for the Great Barrier Reef.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Mcleod, E., Anthony, K. R. N., Mumby, P. J., Maynard, J., Beeden, R., Graham, N. A. J., Heron, S. F., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Jupiter, S., MacGowan, P., Mangubhai, S., Marshall, N., Marshall, P. A., McClanahan, T. R., Mcleod, K., Nyström, M., Obura, D., Parker, B., Possingham, H. P., Salm, R. V., and Tamelander, J. (2019). The future of resilience-based management in coral reef ecosystems. Journal of Environmental Management 233, 291–301.
The future of resilience-based management in coral reef ecosystems.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 30583103PubMed |

Morrison, T. H., Adger, N., Barnett, J., Brown, K., Possingham, H., and Hughes, T. (2020). Advancing Coral Reef Governance into the Anthropocene. One Earth 2, 64–74.
Advancing Coral Reef Governance into the Anthropocene.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Mumby, P. J., and van Woesik, R. (2014). Consequences of ecological, evolutionary and biogeochemical uncertainty for coral reef responses to climatic stress. Current Biology 24, R413–R423.
Consequences of ecological, evolutionary and biogeochemical uncertainty for coral reef responses to climatic stress.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 24845674PubMed |

NASEM (2019). A Research Review of Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs. (The National Academies Press: Washington, DC.)

Pandolfi, J. M. (2015). Incorporating uncertainty in predicting the future response of coral reefs to climate change. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 46, 281–303.
Incorporating uncertainty in predicting the future response of coral reefs to climate change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Prober, S. M., Colloff, M. J., Abel, N., Crimp, S., Doherty, M. D., Dunlop, M., Eldridge, D. J., Gorddard, R., Lavorel, S., Metcalfe, D. J., Murphy, H. T., Ryan, P., and Williams, K. J. (2017). Informing climate adaptation pathways in multi-use woodland landscapes using the values-rules-knowledge framework. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 241, 39–53.
Informing climate adaptation pathways in multi-use woodland landscapes using the values-rules-knowledge framework.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Raftery, A. E., Zimmer, A., Frierson, D. M. W., Startz, R., and Liu, P. (2017). Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely. Nature Climate Change 7, 637.
Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 30079118PubMed |

Ranger, N., Reeder, T., and Lowe, J. (2013). Addressing ‘deep’ uncertainty over long-term climate in major infrastructure projects: four innovations of the Thames Estuary 2100 Project. EURO Journal on Decision Processes 1, 233–262.
Addressing ‘deep’ uncertainty over long-term climate in major infrastructure projects: four innovations of the Thames Estuary 2100 Project.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Rogelj, J., den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., Schaeffer, R., Sha, F., Riahi, K., and Meinshausen, M. (2016). Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2°C. Nature 534, 631–639.
Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2°C.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 27357792PubMed |

Rosenzweig, C., and Solecki, W. (2014). Hurricane Sandy and adaptation pathways in New York: Lessons from a first-responder city. Global Environmental Change 28, 395–408.
Hurricane Sandy and adaptation pathways in New York: Lessons from a first-responder city.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W. A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S. R., Dakos, V., Held, H., van Nes, E. H., Rietkerk, M., and Sugihara, G. (2009). Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461, 53–59.
Early-warning signals for critical transitions.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 19727193PubMed |

Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S. R., Lenton, T. M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W., Dakos, V., van de Koppel, J., van de Leemput, I. A., Levin, S. A., van Nes, E. H., Pascual, M., and Vandermeer, J. (2012). Anticipating critical transitions. Science 338, 344 LP–348.
Anticipating critical transitions.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Takemura, F., Kobashigawa, S., Hirayama, K., Kawabata, K., Sagara, S., Yamashiro, H., and Kuraya, E. (2015). Development of an acetic acid injection device for crown-of-thorns starfish controlled by a remotely operated underwater robot. Journal of Robotics and Mechatronics 27, 571–578.
Development of an acetic acid injection device for crown-of-thorns starfish controlled by a remotely operated underwater robot.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Werners, S. E., Pfenninger, S., van Slobbe, E., Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J. H., and Swart, R. J. (2013). Thresholds, tipping and turning points for sustainability under climate change. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 5, 334–340.
Thresholds, tipping and turning points for sustainability under climate change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Werners, S. E., van Slobbe, E., Bolscher, T., Oost, A., Pfenninger, S., Trombi, G., Bindi, M., and Moriondo, M. (2015). Turning points in climate change adaptation. Ecology and Society 20, 3.
Turning points in climate change adaptation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Wise, R. M., Fazey, I., Stafford Smith, M., Park, S. E., Eakin, H. C., Archer Van Garderen, E. R. M., and Campbell, B. (2014). Reconceptualising adaptation to climate change as part of pathways of change and response. Global Environmental Change 28, 325–336.
Reconceptualising adaptation to climate change as part of pathways of change and response.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Wolff, N. H., Mumby, P. J., Devlin, M., and Anthony, K. R. N. (2018). Vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef to climate change and local pressures. Global Change Biology 24, 1978–1991.
Vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef to climate change and local pressures.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 29420869PubMed |

Wyborn, C., van Kerkhoff, L., Dunlop, M., Dudley, N., and Guevara, O. (2016). Future oriented conservation: knowledge governance, uncertainty and learning. Biodiversity and Conservation 25, 1401–1408.
Future oriented conservation: knowledge governance, uncertainty and learning.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |