Effect of climate variability on water quality trends in New Zealand rivers
T. H. Snelder
A D , S. T. Larned B , C. Fraser A and S. De Malmanche C
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A LWP Ltd, Christchurch, New Zealand.
B National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Christchurch, New Zealand.
C Ministry for the Environment, Wellington, New Zealand.
D Corresponding author. Email: ton@lwp.nz
Marine and Freshwater Research 73(1) 20-34 https://doi.org/10.1071/MF21087
Submitted: 21 March 2021 Accepted: 7 September 2021 Published: 30 September 2021
Journal Compilation © CSIRO 2022 Open Access CC BY-NC-ND
Abstract
Associations between temporal variability in 10 water quality variables and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, quantified by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), were assessed at 56 river sites in New Zealand over a 31-year period (1989–2019). Fluctuations in monthly observations of water quality at each site were correlated to varying degrees with the corresponding SOI value (ro). Trends for rolling windows of 5-, 10- and 15-year duration were evaluated for each site and variable using Kendall’s tau (τw) and for the SOI using linear regression (δSOIw). Aggregate trends for each variable, duration and time window were quantified as proportions of site trends that were increasing (Pw). Fluctuations in τw and Pw between time windows for all durations were explained by the corresponding SOI trend (δSOIw). Between-site and between-variable differences in the trend responses to the SOI trends were explained by the corresponding ro values and the median of the ro values (
) respectively. These results indicate that climate variability makes a significant contribution to water quality trends, even at timescales longer than ENSO cycles. Our models can be used to quantify this contribution for individual sites (i.e. τw) and for aggregate trends (i.e. Pw).
Keywords: climate, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, New Zealand, rivers, trends, water quality.
References
Allan, R., Lindesay, J., and Parker, D. (1996). ‘El Niño Southern Oscillation & Climatic Variability.’ (CSIRO Publishing.)Benjamini, Y., and Hochberg, Y. (1995). Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B. Methodological 57, 289–300.
| Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Chiew, F. H. S., and McMahon, T. A. (2002). Global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection, streamflow forecasting and interannual variability. Hydrological Sciences Journal 47, 505–522.
| Global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection, streamflow forecasting and interannual variability.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Civan, A., Worrall, F., Jarvie, H. P., Howden, N. J., and Burt, T. P. (2018). Forty-year trends in the flux and concentration of phosphorus in British rivers. Journal of Hydrology 558, 314–327.
| Forty-year trends in the flux and concentration of phosphorus in British rivers.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Davies-Colley, R. J., Smith, D. G., Ward, R. C., Bryers, G. G., McBride, G. B., Quinn, J. M., and Scarsbrook, M. R. (2011). Twenty years of New Zealand’s national rivers water quality network: benefits of careful design and consistent operation 1. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 47, 750–771.
| Twenty years of New Zealand’s national rivers water quality network: benefits of careful design and consistent operation 1.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Dawe, P. (2006). A statistical evaluation of water quality trends in selected water bodies of Newfoundland and Labrador. Journal of Environmental Engineering and Science 5, 59–73.
| A statistical evaluation of water quality trends in selected water bodies of Newfoundland and Labrador.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Dupas, R., Jomaa, S., Musolff, A., Borchardt, D., and Rode, M. (2016). Disentangling the influence of hydroclimatic patterns and agricultural management on river nitrate dynamics from sub-hourly to decadal time scales. The Science of the Total Environment 571, 791–800.
| Disentangling the influence of hydroclimatic patterns and agricultural management on river nitrate dynamics from sub-hourly to decadal time scales.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 27422723PubMed |
Erb, K.-H., Fetzel, T., Haberl, H., Kastner, T., Kroisleitner, C., Lauk, C., Niedertscheider, M., and Plutzar, C. (2016) Beyond inputs and outputs: opening the black-box of land-use intensity. In ‘Social Ecology’. pp. 93–124. (Springer.)
Gascuel-Odoux, C., Aurousseau, P., Durand, P., Ruiz, L., and Molenat, J. (2010). The role of climate on inter-annual variation in stream nitrate fluxes and concentrations. The Science of the Total Environment 408, 5657–5666.
| The role of climate on inter-annual variation in stream nitrate fluxes and concentrations.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 19497610PubMed |
Green, C. T., Bekins, B. A., Kalkhoff, S. J., Hirsch, R. M., Liao, L., and Barnes, K. K. (2014). Decadal surface water quality trends under variable climate, land use, and hydrogeochemical setting in Iowa, USA. Water Resources Research 50, 2425–2443.
| Decadal surface water quality trends under variable climate, land use, and hydrogeochemical setting in Iowa, USA.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Harding, L. W., Mallonee, M. E., Perry, E. S., Miller, W. D., Adolf, J. E., Gallegos, C. L., and Paerl, H. W. (2019). Long-term trends, current status, and transitions of water quality in Chesapeake Bay. Scientific Reports 9, 6709.
| Long-term trends, current status, and transitions of water quality in Chesapeake Bay.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 31040300PubMed |
Helsel, D. R., Hirsch, R. M., Ryberg, K. R., Archfield, S. A., and Gilroy, E. J. (2020). Statistical methods in water resources. Report 4–A3. Reston, VA, USA
| Crossref |
Hirsch, R. M., Slack, J. R., and Smith, R. A. (1982). Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water Resources Research 18, 107–121.
| Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hirsch, R. M., Moyer, D. L., and Archfield, S. A. (2010). Weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season (WRTDS), with an application to Chesapeake Bay river inputs 1. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 46, 857–880.
| Weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season (WRTDS), with an application to Chesapeake Bay river inputs 1.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 22457569PubMed |
Hirsch, R. M., Archfield, S. A., and De Cicco, L. A. (2015). A bootstrap method for estimating uncertainty of water quality trends. Environmental Modelling & Software 73, 148–166.
| A bootstrap method for estimating uncertainty of water quality trends.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Hyndman, R. J., and Athanasopoulos, G. (2021). ‘Forecasting: Principles and Practice.’ (OTexts: Melbourne, Vic., Australia.)
Jackson, M. C., Loewen, C. J., Vinebrooke, R. D., and Chimimba, C. T. (2016). Net effects of multiple stressors in freshwater ecosystems: a meta-analysis. Global Change Biology 22, 180–189.
| Net effects of multiple stressors in freshwater ecosystems: a meta-analysis.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 26149723PubMed |
Johnson, H. O., Gupta, S. C., Vecchia, A. V., and Zvomuya, F. (2009). Assessment of water quality trends in the Minnesota River using non-parametric and parametric methods. Journal of Environmental Quality 38, 1018–1030.
| Assessment of water quality trends in the Minnesota River using non-parametric and parametric methods.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 19329690PubMed |
Julian, J. P., de Beurs, K. M., Owsley, B., Davies-Colley, R. J., and Ausseil, A.-G. E. (2017). River water quality changes in New Zealand over 26 years: response to land use intensity. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21, 1149–1171.
| River water quality changes in New Zealand over 26 years: response to land use intensity.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Kauffman, G. J., Homsey, A. R., Belden, A. C., and Sanchez, J. R. (2011). Water quality trends in the Delaware River Basin (USA) from 1980 to 2005. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 177, 193–225.
| Water quality trends in the Delaware River Basin (USA) from 1980 to 2005.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 20665109PubMed |
Larned, S. T., Scarsbrook, M. R., Snelder, T., Norton, N. J., and Biggs, B. J. F. (2004). Water quality in low-elevation streams and rives of New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 38, 347–366.
| Water quality in low-elevation streams and rives of New Zealand.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Larned, S., Snelder, T., Unwin, M., and McBride, G. (2016). Water quality in New Zealand rivers: current state and trends. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 50, 389–417.
| Water quality in New Zealand rivers: current state and trends.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Luo, P., He, B., Takara, K., Razafindrabe, B. H., Nover, D., and Yamashiki, Y. (2011). Spatiotemporal trend analysis of recent river water quality conditions in Japan. Journal of Environmental Monitoring 13, 2819–2829.
| Spatiotemporal trend analysis of recent river water quality conditions in Japan.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 21842064PubMed |
McKerchar, A. I., Pearson, C. P., and Fitzharris, B. B. (1998). Dependency of summer lake inflows and precipitation on spring SOI. Journal of Hydrology 205, 66–80.
| Dependency of summer lake inflows and precipitation on spring SOI.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
McMellor, S., and Underwood, G. J. C. (2014). Water policy effectiveness: 30 years of change in the hypernutrified Colne Estuary, England. Marine Pollution Bulletin 81, 200–209.
| Water policy effectiveness: 30 years of change in the hypernutrified Colne Estuary, England.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 24556358PubMed |
Mellander, P.-E., Jordan, P., Bechmann, M., Fovet, O., Shore, M. M., McDonald, N. T., and Gascuel-Odoux, C. (2018). Integrated climate-chemical indicators of diffuse pollution from land to water. Scientific Reports 8, 944.
| Integrated climate-chemical indicators of diffuse pollution from land to water.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 29343796PubMed |
Ministry for the Environment & Statistics New Zealand (2015). Environment Aotearoa 2015. Environmental Reporting Series Ministry for Environment and Statistics New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand. Available at http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/environmental-reporting/environment-aotearoa-2015 [Verified 28 February 2018]
Ministry for the Environment & Statistics New Zealand (2017). Our fresh water 2017. Ministry for the Environment & Statistics NZ, Wellington, New Zealand. Available at https://www.mfe.govt.nz/sites/default/files/media/Environmental%20reporting/our-fresh-water-2017_1.pdf
Ministry for the Environment & Statistics New Zealand (2019). Environment Aotearoa 2019. Environmental Reporting Series Ministry for Environment and Statistics New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand. Available at https://www.mfe.govt.nz/sites/default/files/media/Environmental%20reporting/environment-aotearoa-2019.pdf
Ministry for the Environment & Statistics New Zealand (2020). Our Freshwater 2020. New Zealands Environmental Reporting Series Ministry for the Environment & Statistics NZ, Wellington, New Zealand.
Morse, N. B., and Wollheim, W. M. (2014). Climate variability masks the impacts of land use change on nutrient export in a suburbanizing watershed. Biogeochemistry 121, 45–59.
| Climate variability masks the impacts of land use change on nutrient export in a suburbanizing watershed.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Mosley, M. P. (2000). Regional differences in the effects of El Niño and La Niña on low flows and floods. Hydrological Sciences Journal 45, 249–267.
| Regional differences in the effects of El Niño and La Niña on low flows and floods.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Mullan, B. (1996). Effects of ENSO on New Zealand and the South pacific. Miscellaneous Series 34. The Royal Society of New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand.
Murphy, J. C. (2020). Changing suspended sediment in United States rivers and streams: linking sediment trends to changes in land use/cover, hydrology and climate. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24, 991–1010.
| Changing suspended sediment in United States rivers and streams: linking sediment trends to changes in land use/cover, hydrology and climate.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Murphy, J., and Sprague, L. (2019). Water-quality trends in US rivers: exploring effects from streamflow trends and changes in watershed management. The Science of the Total Environment 656, 645–658.
| Water-quality trends in US rivers: exploring effects from streamflow trends and changes in watershed management.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 30529968PubMed |
Oelsner, G. P., Sprague, L. A., Murphy, J. C., Zuellig, R. E., Johnson, H. M., Ryberg, K. R., Falcone, J. A., Stets, E. G., Vecchia, A. V., and Riskin, M. L. (2017). Water-quality trends in the nation’s rivers and streams, 1972–2012—data preparation, statistical methods, and trend results. United States Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5006 Reston, VA, USA.
Rosen, M. R., and Lapham, W. W. (2008). Introduction to the US Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) of ground-water quality trends and comparison to other national programs. Journal of Environmental Quality 37, S-190–S-198.
Ryberg, K. R., Blomquist, J. D., Sprague, L. A., Sekellick, A. J., and Keisman, J. (2018). Modeling drivers of phosphorus loads in Chesapeake Bay tributaries and inferences about long-term change. The Science of the Total Environment 616–617, 1423–1430.
| Modeling drivers of phosphorus loads in Chesapeake Bay tributaries and inferences about long-term change.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 29102189PubMed |
Salinger, M. J., and Mullan, A. B. (1999). New Zealand climate: temperature and precipitation variations and their links with atmospheric circulation. International Journal of Climatology 19, 1049–1071.
| New Zealand climate: temperature and precipitation variations and their links with atmospheric circulation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Scarsbrook, M. R., McBride, C. G., McBride, G. B., and Bryers, G. G. (2003). Effects of climate variability on rivers: consequences for long term water quality analysis. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 39, 1435–1447.
| Effects of climate variability on rivers: consequences for long term water quality analysis.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Shoda, M. E., Sprague, L. A., Murphy, J. C., and Riskin, M. L. (2019). Water-quality trends in US rivers, 2002 to 2012: relations to levels of concern. The Science of the Total Environment 650, 2314–2324.
| Water-quality trends in US rivers, 2002 to 2012: relations to levels of concern.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 30292123PubMed |
Smith, D. G., and Maasdam, R. (1994). New Zealand’s national water quality network. 1. Design and physio-chemical characterisation. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 28, 19–35.
| New Zealand’s national water quality network. 1. Design and physio-chemical characterisation.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Snelder, T. H., Fraser, C., Larned, S. T., Monaghan, R., De Malmanche, S., and Whitehead, A. L. (2021). Attribution of river water-quality trends to agricultural land use and climate variability in New Zealand. Marine and Freshwater Research. [Published online 30 September 2021].
| Crossref |
Suthanthangjai, M., Moore, K., Steel, G., and Hughey, K. F. (2013). Tracking New Zealanders environmental perceptions: a comparison of responses from two survey approaches. The International Journal of Science in Society 4, 25–40.
| Tracking New Zealanders environmental perceptions: a comparison of responses from two survey approaches.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Tomperi, J., Juuso, E., and Leiviskä, K. (2016). Early warning of changing drinking water quality by trend analysis. Journal of Water and Health 14, 433–442.
| Early warning of changing drinking water quality by trend analysis.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar | 27280609PubMed |
Venables, W. N., and Ripley, B. D. (2013). ‘Modern Applied Statistics with S-PLUS.’ (Springer Science & Business Media.)
