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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Contents Vol 36(1)

Impacts of the CSIRO climate modelling program

Ian Smith https://orcid.org/0009-0001-1206-3178 A *
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A 4/25 Waterloo Road, Northcote, Vic 3070, Australia.

* Correspondence to: kls.iansmith@gmail.com

Historical Records of Australian Science 36, HR24027 https://doi.org/10.1071/HR24027
Published online: 8 April 2025

© 2025 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of the Australian Academy of Science.

Abstract

The role of climate modelling groups in the development of international agreements that aim to assess future climatic risks and limit greenhouse gas concentrations is not well recognised. It is arguable that no such agreements would have been possible without carefully designed and managed research programs that provided the data upon which these risks and thus, decisions were made. Many groups contributed data that underpinned the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report published in 2014 that led to the ground-breaking Paris Agreement. Australia’s contribution included the results of a CSIRO climate model which had its genesis in a relatively simple weather forecast model two decades previously. Two people were mainly responsible for the modelling program which led to this accomplishment—Barrie Hunt and Hal Gordon. A brief history of the program is described here and. Examining some basic metrics reveals some surprising impacts.

Keywords: Barrie Hunt, citations, climate modelling, CMIP5, greenhouse effect, Hal Gordon, IPCC, Paris Agreement.

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