Portfolio analysis of petroleum fields and prospects: a robust statistical method
Aleksandar Vujovic A , Ritu Gupta B and Gregory C. Smith A CA Curtin University, WA School of Mines, Department of Applied Geology, GPO Box U1987, Perth, WA 6845, Australia.
B Curtin University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, GPO Box U1987, Perth, WA 6845, Australia.
C Corresponding author. Email: gregory.c.smith@curtin.edu.au
The APPEA Journal 57(2) 572-576 https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ16095
Accepted: 10 March 2017 Published: 29 May 2017
Abstract
Portfolio analysis of several prospects, fields or assets is an important part of economic analysis routinely done by most exploration, development and production companies, often for large dollar amounts. Yet the methods used have not changed for decades, most are done in complicated and difficult to audit spreadsheets, and commonly they are not statistically robust, meaning they sometimes give incorrect results.
The Curtin University Petroleum Geology Group has an active research program working with the Curtin Statistical Group to improve assessment of petroleum volumetrics, risking, scenario and portfolio analysis. This note provides a simple case study of portfolio analysis using an area in the North West Shelf in which we have quickly mapped several leads, prospects and drilled traps. They span a range of risk outcomes from undrilled to drilled, of which some were dry and some were successful to varying degrees. The results allow us to demonstrate how to calculate and aggregate the volumes and dependencies for each structure, correctly add the results using a new statistical methodology and formulate the aggregated volumetric distribution for the portfolio. This workflow can be used for any portfolio in the petroleum and other industries.
Keywords: Glencoe Area North West Shelf, prospect dependencies, volumetric aggregation.
Aleksandar (Aleks) Vujovic is a West Australian who completed BSc and BComm degrees at Curtin University in 2015, majoring in Applied Geology and Finance. In 2016 Aleks completed an Applied Geology Honours (1st Class) degree at Curtin University in Petroleum Geology. Aleks is a student member of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) and he represented Curtin University as a member of the 2016 AAPG International Barrel Award (IBA) team. Aleks enjoys tracking stock markets, discussing Australian and global politics, fishing and kayaking. |
Ritu Gupta is a senior lecturer in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Curtin University. She holds Honours, Masters and PhD degrees in Mathematical Statistics and has worked in a range of academic and consulting positions for industry and government in Australia. Ritu has given over 20 presentations at Australian and international conferences, written more than 45 research papers and completed over 30 consultant reports for various government departments and industries. Over the past decade she has worked on developing advanced statistical methods for efficient reserves estimation in petroleum geoscience and engineering applications. This work has resulted in over 15 research papers, three supervised PhD theses and new software development. Ritu is an accredited member of the Statistical Society of Australia. |
Gregory C. Smith is Adjunct Professor of Petroleum Geology at Curtin University in the WA School of Mines. He has over 40 years’ experience in petroleum geology, geophysics and geochemistry involving technical, research and managerial positions at Exxon, ARCO, BHP, Woodside/Shell and the Herman Research Laboratory. Initial research into 3D modelling of basins, sediments and organic geochemistry was followed by successful coal, oil shale and petroleum exploration (including several major discoveries), field development and production for many large projects in Australia and overseas. Greg undertakes research with Honours, Masters and PhD students on interpretation and geostatistical analysis of large seismic, well log, core and production datasets to build 3D structural and property models of sedimentary basins or petroleum fields, and scenario modelling the probable geology and resource estimates. Specific interests include low Temperature–Pressure burial and thermal history modelling, organic matter petrology and geochemistry, and characterisation of sediments and their diagenesis with Curtin University departments of statistics and engineering, the WA Organic and Isotope Geochemistry group and the John de Laeter Centre. Greg is a member of AAPG, PESA, TSOP, past invited member of ICCP, ASA and corporate member of AusIMM, and has held various positions in GSA, PESA and APPEA. |
References
Smith, G. C., Louis, J., White, R., Gupta, R., and Collinson, R. (2009). The Hermes Oil Field, a small field takes wings. The APPEA Journal 49, 221–241.van Elk, J. F., Gupta, R., and Wann, D. J. (2010). Probabilistic aggregation of oil and gas field resource estimates and project portfolio analysis. SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering 13, 72–81.
| Probabilistic aggregation of oil and gas field resource estimates and project portfolio analysis.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |
Vujovic, A. (2016). Petroleum systems, hydrocarbon potential and portfolio screening analysis of the Exmouth Plateau, North Carnarvon Basin, NW Western Australia. B.Sc.(Hons) Thesis, Curtin University, Perth.
