Natural catastrophe risk modelling for northwest Australia offshore installations
Tomohiko Inamura A C , Francis Lobo B , Rie Hirose B and Hajime Sano AA Sompo Risk Management and Health Care Inc., Sompo Japan Nipponkoa Headquarters, Bldg 6F, 1-26-1, Nishi-Shinjuku, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 160-8338, Japan.
B Sompo Canopius, Gallery 9, 1 Lime Street, London EC3M 7HA, UK.
C Corresponding author. Email: tinamura30@sompo-rc.co.jp
The APPEA Journal 57(2) 473-476 https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ16100
Accepted: 24 February 2017 Published: 29 May 2017
Abstract
Offshore installations are exposed to several natural hazards. The greatest is severe weather caused by hurricanes and cyclones. Such storms can be devastating, causing widespread damage and financial loss. Insurance companies offer a range of products that insure against potential losses, including physical damage, control of well, sue and labour, removal of wreck, business interruption and liability.
This paper describes the development of the first stochastic natural catastrophe model for the northwest Australian coastal region. It is based on Monte Carlo simulations and uses scientific and engineering knowledge alongside actual insurance claims data to evaluate aggregate storm exposures for the offshore industry in this region.
The model enables quantitative assessment of cyclone risk by developing an improved database through the compilation of available meteorological data. Its development is designed to allow the sustainable and reasonably priced supply of insurance, which is essential to the further extension of exploration and production activities and investment in Australia.
Keywords: cyclone, insurance, Monte Carlo simulation, natural hazard, risk evaluation model.
Tomohiko Inamura majored in geography and climatology at Tokyo Metropolitan University. After completing his PhD, Tomohiko started his career in 2013 as risk analyst and modeller for Sompo Risk Management and Health Care Inc., which is part of Sompo Holdings Inc. His role focused on risk modelling of natural catastrophes for insurance companies and he has been involved in developing a wind-related risk model. Since 2014, Tomohiko has been in charge of risk modelling for offshore energy, such as oil and gas platforms, as well as offshore wind farms. |
Francis Lobo began his career at Texaco where he spent 8 years in the key oil field disciplines of reservoir, drilling and production engineering. He then moved to Denmark to lead a team of engineers responsible for managing the Tyra gas field. Following that, he held a variety of senior management positions internationally. Francis moved from the oil sector to insurance in 2002, where he specialised in worldwide risk assessment and risk management functions. |
Rie Hirose is in charge of upstream energy underwriting and strategic business development at Sompo Canopius. Her experience includes 8 years in outward marine and energy reinsurance, where she arranged optimal protection for written risks. She also has 7 years of underwriting experience, including 4 years in the London market. |
Hajime Sano commenced his career in insurance in 2004 with Sompo Japan Risk Management. He led the catastrophe analytics team which enforces building models, underwriting and reinsurance optimisation. He then transferred to Sompo Canopius’s London office in 2015, where he enhanced the underwriting capability of the Sompo Group. In 2017 he relocated to Tokyo, where his role diversified to strengthen the data science technology in the SOMPO group in order to streamline insurance operations and develop new businesses such as automobile and healthcare. |
