Phenological trends among Australian alpine species: using herbarium records to identify climate-change indicators
R. V. Gallagher A B , L. Hughes A and M. R. Leishman AA Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, NSW 2109, Australia.
B Corresponding author. Email: rgallagher@bio.mq.edu.au
Australian Journal of Botany 57(1) 1-9 https://doi.org/10.1071/BT08051
Submitted: 23 March 2008 Accepted: 15 December 2008 Published: 23 March 2009
Abstract
Global temperatures are increasing at an unprecedented rate and the analysis of long-term phenological records has provided some of the most compelling evidence for the effect of these changes on species. In regions where systematically collected data on the timing of life-cycle events is scarce, such as Australia, researchers must seek alternative sources of information from which climate-change signals can be identified. In the present paper, we explore the limitations and strengths of using herbarium specimens to detect changes in flowering phenology, to select potential indicator species, and to pinpoint locations for potential monitoring schemes of native plants in Australia’s subalpine and alpine zone. We selected 20 species on the basis of a range of selection criteria, including a flowering duration of 3 months or less and the number of herbarium records available in the areas above 1500 m. By the use of gridded temperature data within the study region, we identified an increase in mean annual temperature of 0.74°C between 1950 and 2007. We then matched the spatial locations of the herbarium specimens to these temperature data and, by using linear regression models, identified five species whose flowering response may be sensitive to temperature. Higher mean annual temperatures at the point of collection were negatively associated with earlier flowering in each of these species (α = 0.05). We also found a significant (P = 0.02) negative relationship between year and flowering observation for Alpine groundsel, Senecio pectinatus var. major. This species is potentially a suitable candidate for monitoring responses of species to future climate change, owing to the accessibility of populations and its conspicuous flowers. It is also likely that with ongoing warming the other four species identified (Colobanthus affinis, Ewartia nubigena, Prasophyllum tadgellianum and Wahlenbergia ceracea) in the present study may show the same response.
Acknowledgements
We thank staff at the National Herbarium of NSW, Botanic Gardens Trust, Sydney, the National Herbarium of Victoria in Melbourne and the Australian National Herbarium in Canberra for providing access to data in an electronic format. In particular we thank Maggie Nightingale and John Hook at the Australian National Herbarium for their time, effort and expertise in electronic collections management. We are also very grateful to Dr Ken Green for guidance on all things alpine. We also acknowledge that this work would not have been possible without the contributions of countless field botanists, both professional and amateur, who have contributed voucher specimens to Australian herbariums during the past ~230 years and the continued support of such institutions by government agencies. We also thank three anonymous reviewers who helped improve the manuscript.
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