Evaluation of management options for climate-change adaptation of threatened species: a case study of a restricted orchid

Caitlin R. Rutherford; Andrew M. Rogers; Suzanne M. Prober; Erika M. Roper; Emma Cook; April E. Reside

doi:10.1071/BT23092

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Next Contents Vol 72(7)

Evaluation of management options for climate-change adaptation of threatened species: a case study of a restricted orchid

Caitlin R. Rutherford

^A ^* , Andrew M. Rogers ^B , Suzanne M. Prober ^C , Erika M. Roper

^D , Emma Cook ^E and April E. Reside ^A ^B ^F

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A School of the Environment, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, Australia.

^B Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia.

^C CSIRO Environment, Acton, ACT, Australia.

^D NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment, and Water, Queanbeyan, NSW 2620, Australia.

^E ACT Office of Nature Conservation, Canberra, ACT, Australia.

^F School of Agriculture and Food Sustainability, The University of Queensland, Gatton, Qld 4343, Australia.

^* Correspondence to: caitlinrutherford37@gmail.com, caitlin.rutherford@uq.net.au

Handling Editor: Noushka Reiter

Australian Journal of Botany 72, BT23092 https://doi.org/10.1071/BT23092

Submitted: 31 October 2023 Accepted: 30 September 2024 Published: 22 October 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)

Abstract

Context

Global climate is changing rapidly, necessitating timely development of specific, actionable species conservation strategies that incorporate climate-change adaptation. Yet, detailed climate-change adaptation planning is noticeably absent from species management plans. This is problematic for restricted species, which often have greater extinction risk.

Aims

Focusing on the restricted and endangered Tarengo leek orchid (Prasophyllum petilum), we aimed to adapt and test a framework for producing strategies for its management under climate change.

Methods

We used expert elicitation to estimate the severity of threats and assess potential management actions to mitigate threat impacts. We created a conceptual model detailing ecology, threats and likely impacts of climate change on the species, including the interactions between components.

Key results

Although climate change-related threats will affect the species, the most severe threats were non-climate threats including grazing, weeds, and habitat degradation. Fire management was deemed highly beneficial but had low feasibility for some populations. Without management, experts estimated up to a 100% decrease in one P. petilum population, and up to 50% decrease if management remained unchanged.

Conclusions

Management actions with the highest benefit and feasibility addressed the non-climate threats, which, in turn, can give the species the best opportunity to withstand climate-change impacts. Experts highlighted the difficulty of addressing climate threats with such limited knowledge; therefore, further research was recommended.

Implications

This adapted framework enabled a structured analysis of threats, and informed selection of priority adaptation options. We recommend its use for other restricted species for efficient and robust decision-making in climate-change management.

Keywords: climate-change adaptation frameworks, climate-change resilience, controlled burns, expert elicitation, orchid, Prasophyllum, Tarengo leek orchid, threatened species management.

References

Ackerman JD, Phillips RD, Tremblay RL, Karremans A, Reiter N, Peter CI, Bogarín D, Pérez-Escobar OA, Liu H (2023) Beyond the various contrivances by which orchids are pollinated: global patterns in orchid pollination biology. Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society 202, 295-324.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Aitken SN, Whitlock MC (2013) Assisted gene flow to facilitate local adaptation to climate change. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 44, 367-388.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Balzotti CS, Kitchen SG, McCarthy C (2016) Beyond the single species climate envelope: a multifaceted approach to mapping climate change vulnerability. Ecosphere 7, e01444.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Barber QE, Nielsen SE, Hamann A (2016) Assessing the vulnerability of rare plants using climate change velocity, habitat connectivity, and dispersal ability: a case study in Alberta, Canada. Regional Environmental Change 16, 1433-1441.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Bates R (1984) Pollination of Prasophyllum elatum R.Br. The Orchadian 8, 14-17.
| Google Scholar |

Bell SAJ (2019) Translocation ‘success’ is all about detection: experiences with two threatened orchids from the Hunter Valley of NSW. Australasian Plant Conservation: Journal of the Australian Network for Plant Conservation 28, 27-31.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Bell SAJ (2020) Translocation of threatened terrestrial orchids into non-mined and post-mined lands in the Hunter Valley of New South Wales, Australia. Restoration Ecology 28, 1396-1407.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Bellard C, Bertelsmeier C, Leadley P, Thuiller W, Courchamp F (2012) Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity. Ecology Letters 15, 365-377.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Bergstrom DM, Wienecke BC, van den Hoff J, Hughes L, Lindenmayer DB, Ainsworth TD, Baker CM, Bland L, Bowman DM, Brooks ST, Canadell JG, et al. (2021) Combating ecosystem collapse from the tropics to the Antarctic. Global Change Biology 27, 1692-1703.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Beyer RM, Manica A (2020) Historical and projected future range sizes of the world’s mammals, birds, and amphibians. Nature Communications 11, 5633.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Bishop A (1996) ‘Field guide to the orchids of New South Wales and Victoria.’ (University of New South Wales Press: Sydney, NSW, Australia)

Bottrill MC, Joseph LN, Carwardine J, Bode M, Cook C, Game ET, Grantham H, Kark S, Linke S, McDonald-Madden E, Pressey RL, Walker S, Wilson KA, Possingham HP (2008) Is conservation triage just smart decision making? Trends in Ecology & Evolution 23, 649-654.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Breiner FT, Nobis MP, Bergamini A, Guisan A (2018) Optimizing ensembles of small models for predicting the distribution of species with few occurrences. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 9, 802-808.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Burgman MA, McBride M, Ashton R, Speirs-Bridge A, Flander L, Wintle B, Fidler F, Rumpff L, Twardy C (2011) Expert status and performance. PLoS ONE 6, e22998.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Butt N, Possingham HP, De Los Rios C, Maggini R, Fuller RA, Maxwell SL, Watson JEM (2016) Challenges in assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change to inform conservation actions. Biological Conservation 199, 10-15.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Carwardine J, O’Connor T, Legge S, Mackey B, Possingham HP, Martin TG (2012) Prioritizing threat management for biodiversity conservation. Conservation Letters 5, 196-204.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Coates F, Lunt ID, Tremblay RL (2006) Effects of disturbance on population dynamics of the threatened orchid Prasophyllum correctum D.L.Jones and implications for grassland management in south-eastern Australia. Biological Conservation 129, 59-69.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Cresswell ID, Janke T, Johnston EL (2021) Australia state of the environment 2021: overview. (Commonwealth of Australia: Canberra, ACT, Australia) Available at https://soe.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-07/soe2021-overview.pdf [Verified 20 December 2021]

Cross MS, Zavaleta ES, Bachelet D, Brooks ML, Enquist CAF, Fleishman E, Graumlich LJ, Groves CR, Hannah L, Hansen L, Hayward G, Koopman M, Lawler JJ, Malcolm J, Nordgren J, Petersen B, Rowland EL, Scott D, Shafer SL, Shaw MR, Tabor GM (2012) The adaptation for conservation targets (ACT) framework: a tool for incorporating climate change into natural resource management. Environmental Management 50, 341-351.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

DAWE (2021) Conservation Advice for Prasophyllum petilum (Tarengo Leek Orchid). (Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment: Canberra, ACT, Australia) Available at https://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/species/pubs/55144-conservation-advice-29092021.pdf [Verified 2 February 2024]

DAWE (2022) Fire regimes that cause declines in biodiversity as a key threatening process. (Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment: Canberra, ACT, Australia) Available at https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/biodiversity/threatened/key-threatening-processes/fire-regimes-that-cause-declines-in-biodiversity [Verified 6 August 2024]

Dawson TP, Jackson ST, House JI, Prentice IC, Mace GM (2011) Beyond predictions: biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science 332, 53-58.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

DCCEEW (2023) Species Profile and Threats Database, EPBC Act List of Threatened Flora. (Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water: Canberra, ACT, Australia) Available at https://www.environment.gov.au/cgi-bin/sprat/public/publicthreatenedlist.pl?wanted=flora [Verified 2 February 2024]

DCCEEW (2024) Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (Cth). (Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water: Canberra, ACT, Australia) Available at http://www.environment.gov.au/epbc/index.html [Verified 14 October 2024]

DECCW (2010) National Recovery Plan for the Tarengo Leek Orchid Prasophyllum petilum. (Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water: Sydney, NSW, Australia) Available at https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/prasophyllum-petilum-recovery-plan.pdf [Verified 1 August 2021]

Dowdy AJ (2018) Climatological variability of fire weather in Australia. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 57, 221-234.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Dowdy AJ, Ye H, Pepler A, Thatcher M, Osbrough SL, Evans JP, Di Virgilio G, McCarthy N (2019) Future changes in extreme weather and pyroconvection risk factors for Australian wildfires. Scientific Reports 9, 10073.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Dubois NS, Gomez A, Carlson S, Russell D (2020) Bridging the research-implementation gap requires engagement from practitioners. Conservation Science and Practice 2, e134.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Dudley A, Butt N, Auld TD, Gallagher RV (2019) Using traits to assess threatened plant species response to climate change. Biodiversity and Conservation 28, 1905-1919.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Dunwiddie PW, Haan NL, Linders M, Bakker JD, Fimbel C, Thomas TB (2016) Intertwined fates: opportunities and challenges in the linked recovery of two rare species. Natural Areas Journal 36, 207-215.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

EPSD (2019) ACT Native Woodland Conservation Strategy: Tarengo Leek Orchid Prasophyllum Petilum Action Plan. (Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development: Canberra, ACT, Australia) Available at https://www.environment.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/576527/Woodland-Conservation-Strategy-Tarengo-Leek-Orchid.pdf [Verified 1 August 2021]

Evans A, Janssens S, Jacquemyn H (2020) Impact of climate change on the distribution of four closely related Orchis (Orchidaceae) species. Diversity 12, 312.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Florec V, Burton M, Pannell D, Kelso J, Milne G (2020) Where to prescribe burn: the costs and benefits of prescribed burning close to houses. International Journal of Wildland Fire 29, 440-458.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Foden WB, Butchart SHM, Stuart SN, Vié JC, Akçakaya HR, Angulo A, DeVantier LM, Gutsche A, Turkak E, Cao L, Donner SD, Katariya V, Bernard R, Holland RA, Hughes AF, O’Hanlon SE, Garnett ST, Şekercioğlu Çagan H, Mace GM, Lavergne S (2013) Identifying the world’s most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians, and corals. PLoS ONE 8, e65427.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Foden WB, Young BE, Akçakaya HR, Garcia RA, Hoffmann AA, Stein BA, Thomas CD, Wheatley CJ, Bickford D, Carr JA, Hole DG, Martin TG, Pacifici M, Pearce-Higgins JW, Platts PJ, Visconti P, Watson JEM, Huntley B (2019) Climate change vulnerability assessment of species. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 10, e551.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Freestone MW, Swarts N, Reiter N, Tomlinson S, Sussmilch FS, Wright MW, Holmes GD, Phillips RD, Linde CC (2021) Continental-scale distribution and diversity of Ceratobasidium orchid mycorrhizal fungi in Australia. Annals of Botany 128, 329-343.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Gaskett AC, Gallagher RV (2018) Orchid diversity: spatial and climatic patterns from herbarium records. Ecology and Evolution 8, 11235-11245.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Hagger V, Fisher D, Schmidt S, Blomberg S (2013) Assessing the vulnerability of an assemblage of subtropical rainforest vertebrate species to climate change in south-east Queensland. Austral Ecology 38, 465-475.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Hamilton SH, Pollino CA, Jakeman AJ (2015) Habitat suitability modelling of rare species using bayesian networks: model evaluation under limited data. Ecological Modelling 299, 64-78.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Heller NE, Zavaleta ES (2009) Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: a review of 22 years of recommendations. Biological Conservation 142, 14-32.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Hemming V, Burgman MA, Hanea AM, McBride MF, Wintle BC (2018) A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 9, 169-180.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Hoeppner JM, Hughes L (2019) Climate readiness of recovery plans for threatened Australian species. Conservation Biology 33, 534-542.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Hughes L (2011) Climate change and Australia: key vulnerable regions. Regional Environmental Change 11, 189-195.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

IUCN (2021) Threats Classification Scheme Version 3.2. International Union Conservation of Nature. Available at https://www.iucnredlist.org/resources/threat-classification-scheme [Verified 12 October 2021]

Jasinge NU, Huynh T, Lawrie AC (2018) Changes in orchid populations and endophytic fungi with rainfall and prescribed burning in Pterostylis revoluta in Victoria, Australia. Annals of Botany 121, 321-334.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Jones DL (1988) ‘Native orchids of Australia.’ (Reed Books: Sydney)

Jump AS, Penuelas J (2005) Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change. Ecology Letters 8, 1010-1020.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Kirono DGC, Round V, Heady C, Chiew FHS, Osbrough S (2020) Drought projections for Australia: updated results and analysis of model simulations. Weather and Climate Extremes 30, 100280.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Knight AT, Cowling RM, Rouget M, Balmford A, Lombard AT, Campbell BM (2008) Knowing but not doing: selecting priority conservation areas and the research–implementation gap. Conservation Biology 22, 610-617.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Kuhnert PM, Martin TG, Griffiths SP (2010) A guide to eliciting and using expert knowledge in Bayesian ecological models. Ecology Letters 13, 900-914.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Lawler J, Watson J, Game E (2015) Conservation in the face of climate change: recent developments. F1000Research 4, 1158.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Lee JR, Maggini R, Taylor MFJ, Fuller RA (2015) Mapping the drivers of climate change vulnerability for Australia’s threatened species. PLoS ONE 10, e0124766.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Marcer A, Sáez L, Molowny-Horas R, Pons X, Pino J (2013) Using species distribution modelling to disentangle realised versus potential distributions for rare species conservation. Biological Conservation 166, 221-230.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Margoluis R, Stem C, Salafsky N, Brown M (2009) Using conceptual models as a planning and evaluation tool in conservation. Evaluation and Program Planning 32, 138-147.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Martin TG, Burgman MA, Fidler F, Kuhnert PM, Low-Choy S, McBride M, Mengersen K (2012) Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science. Conservation Biology 26, 29-38.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Mata L, Garrard GE, Kutt AS, Wintle BC, Chee YE, Backstrom A, Bainbridge B, Urlus J, Brown GW, Tolsma AD, Yen AL, New TR, Bekessy SA (2017) Eliciting and integrating expert knowledge to assess the viability of the critically endangered golden sun-moth Synemon plana. Austral Ecology 42, 297-308.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Mawdsley JR, O’Malley R, Ojima DS (2009) A review of climate-change adaptation strategies for wildlife management and biodiversity conservation. Conservation Biology 23, 1080-1089.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

McArthur AG (1967) ‘Fire Behaviour in Eucalypt Forests.’ Leaflet 107. (Forestry and Timber Bureau, Department of National Development: Canberra, ACT, Australia)

McQualter E, Cross R, McLean CB, Ladiges PY (2007) Prasophyllum and its associated mycorrhizal fungi. Lankesteriana International Journal on Orchidology 7, 497-501.
| Google Scholar |

Morgan MG (2014) Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111, 7176–-7184.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Naujokaitis-Lewis I, Endicott S, Guezen J (2021) Treatment of climate change in extinction risk assessments and recovery plans for threatened species. Conservation Science and Practice 3, e450.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

OEH (2014) New South Wales Climate change snapshot. (Office of Environment and Heritage: Sydney, NSW, Australia) Available at https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-06/NSW%20climate%20change%20snapshot.pdf [Verified 16 August 2021]

OEH (2021a) Tarengo Leek Orchid Profile. Office of Environment and Heritage NSW: Sydney, NSW, Australia) Available at https://threatenedspecies.bionet.nsw.gov.au/profile?id=10666 [Verified 16 August 2021]

OEH (2021b) Tarengo Leek Orchid (Prasophyllum petilum): Saving our Species strategy. (NSW Office of Environment and Heritage: Sydney, NSW, Australia) Available at https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/savingourspeciesapp/project/224 [Verified 16 August 2021]

Oliver TH, Smithers RJ, Bailey S, Walmsley CA, Watts K (2012) A decision framework for considering climate change adaptation in biodiversity conservation planning. Journal of Applied Ecology 49, 1247-1255.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Pacifici M, Foden WB, Visconti P, Watson JEM, Butchart SHM, Kovacs KM, Scheffers BR, Hole DG, Martin TG, Akçakaya HR, Corlett RT, Huntley B, Bickford D, Carr JA, Hoffmann AA, Midgley GF, Pearce-Kelly P, Pearson RG, Williams SE, Willis SG, Young B, Rondinini C (2015) Assessing species vulnerability to climate change. Nature Climate Change 5, 215-224.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Peakall R (1989) A new technique for monitoring pollen flow in orchids. Oecologia 79, 361-365.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Peters GP, Andrew RM, Boden T, Canadell JG, Ciais P, Le Quéré C, Marland G, Raupach MR, Wilson C (2013) The challenge to keep global warming below 2C. Nature Climate Change 3, 4-6.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Phillips RD, Reiter N, Peakall R (2020) Orchid Conservation: from theory to practice. Annals of Botany 126, 345-362.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Poiani KA, Goldman RL, Hobson J, Hoekstra JM, Nelson KS (2011) Redesigning biodiversity conservation projects for climate change: examples from the field. Biodiversity and Conservation 20, 185-201.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Prober SM, Doerr VAJ, Broadhurst LM, Williams KJ, Dickson F (2019) Shifting the conservation paradigm: a synthesis of options for renovating nature under climate change. Ecological Monographs 89, 1-23.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

R Core Team (2024) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. (R Foundation for Statistical Computing) Available at https://www.R-project.org/ [Verified 28 July 2024]

Rasmussen HN, Dixon KW, Jersáková J, Těšitelová T (2015) Germination and seedling establishment in orchids: a complex of requirements. Annals of Botany 116, 391.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Regan HM, Colyvan M, Burgman MA (2002) A taxonomy and treatment of uncertainty for ecology and conservation biology. Ecological Applications 12, 618-628.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Reside AE, VanDerWal J, Garnett ST, Kutt AS (2016) Vulnerability of Australian tropical savanna birds to climate change. Austral Ecology 41, 106-116.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Reside AE, Butt N, Adams VM (2018) Adapting systematic conservation planning for climate change. Biodiversity and Conservation 27, 1-29.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Reside AE, Critchell K, Crayn DM, Goosem M, Goosem S, Hoskin CJ, Sydes T, Vanderduys EP, Pressey RL (2019) Beyond the model: expert knowledge improves predictions of species’ fates under climate change. Ecological Applications 29, e01824.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Reynolds A, Deluca L, Gottschalk A, Gray K, Leonardi S, Picker I (2021) The climate gap: report on climate threat management for critically endangered species and ecological communities under the EPBC Act. (Green Law and Australian Conservation Foundation) Available at https://greenlawnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/The-Climate-Gap-GreenLaw-December-2021.pdf [Verified 20 December 2021]

Roper E (2021) Second year post-fire monitoring of the Endangered Superb Midge Orchid (Genoplesium superbum) in south-eastern NSW. Australasian Plant Conservation 30, 12-14.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Roy HE, Peyton JM, Booy O (2020) Guiding principles for utilizing social influence within expert-elicitation to inform conservation decision-making. Global Change Biology 26, 3181-3184.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Rudin-Bitterli TS, Evans JP, Mitchell NJ (2021) Fitness consequences of targeted gene flow to counter impacts of drying climates on terrestrial-breeding frogs. Communications Biology 4, 1195.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Scheffers BR, de Meester L, Bridge TCL, Hoffmann AA, Pandolfi JM, Corlett RT, Butchart SHM, Pearce-Kelly P, Kovacs KM, Dudgeon D, Pacifici M, Rondinini C, Foden WB, Martin TG, Mora C, Bickford D, Watson JE (2016) The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people. Science 354, aaf7671.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Smith M, Jackson C, Palmer N, Palmer B (2020) A structured analysis of risk to important wildlife elements in three Australian Wildlife Conservancy sanctuaries. Ecological Management and Restoration 21, 42-50.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Staude IR, Navarro LM, Pereira HM (2020) Range size predicts the risk of local extinction from habitat loss. Global Ecology and Biogeography 29, 16-25.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Swarts ND, Dixon KW (2009) Terrestrial orchid conservation in the age of extinction. Annals of Botany 104, 543-556.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Taft HR, McCoskey DN, Miller JM, Pearson SK, Coleman MA, Fletcher NK, Mittan CS, Meek MH, Barbosa S (2020) Research–management partnerships: an opportunity to integrate genetics in conservation actions. Conservation Science and Practice 2, e218.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Thurman LL, Stein BA, Beever EA, Foden W, Geange SR, Green N, Gross JE, Lawrence DJ, LeDee O, Olden JD, Thompson LM, Young BE (2020) Persist in place or shift in space? Evaluating the adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 18, 520-528.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Tingley R, Macdonald SL, Mitchell NJ, Woinarski JCZ, Meiri S, Bowles P, Cox NA, Shea GM, Böhm M, Chanson J, Tognelli MF, et al. (2019) Geographic and taxonomic patterns of extinction risk in Australian squamates. Biological Conservation 238, 108203.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Tomlinson S, Lewandrowski W, Elliott CP, Miller BP, Turner SR (2020) High-resolution distribution modeling of a threatened short-range endemic plant informed by edaphic factors. Ecology and Evolution 10, 763-777.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Wang HH, Wonkka CL, Treglia ML, Grant WE, Smeins FE, Rogers WE (2015) Species distribution modelling for conservation of an endangered endemic orchid. AoB PLANTS 7, plv039.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Ward M, Carwardine J, Yong CJ, Watson JEM, Silcock J, Taylor GS, Lintermans M, Gillespie GR, Garnett ST, Woinarski J, Tingley R, Fensham RJ, Hoskin CJ, Hines HB, Roberts JD, Kennard MJ, Harvey MS, Chapple DG, Reside AE (2021) A national-scale dataset for threats impacting Australia’s imperiled flora and fauna. Ecology and Evolution 11, 11749-11761.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Warren R, Vanderwal J, Price J, Welbergen JA, Atkinson I, Ramirez-Villegas J, Osborn TJ, Jarvis A, Shoo LP, Williams SE, Lowe J (2013) Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss. Nature Climate Change 3, 678-682.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Williams SE, Shoo LP, Isaac JL, Hoffmann AA, Langham G (2008) Towards an integrated framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change. PLOS Biology 6, e325.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Wilson N, Seddon J, Baines G (2016) Factors influencing the flowering of the Tarengo Leek Orchid (Prasophyllum petilum). Technical Report 36. (Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate, ACT Government: Canberra, ACT, Australia) Available at https://www.environment.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/1026342/TR36-Factors-influencing-the-flowering-of-the-Tarengo-Leek-Orchid.pdf [Verified 1 August 2021]

Woinarski JCZ, Braby MF, Burbidge AA, Coates D, Garnett ST, Fensham RJ, Legge SM, McKenzie NL, Silcock JL, Murphy BP (2019) Reading the black book: the number, timing, distribution and causes of listed extinctions in Australia. Biological Conservation 239, 108261.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Wraith J, Pickering C (2019) A continental scale analysis of threats to orchids. Biological Conservation 234, 7-17.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |