Register      Login
Australian Mammalogy Australian Mammalogy Society
Journal of the Australian Mammal Society
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Using repeat citizen science surveys of koalas to assess their population trend in the north-west of New South Wales: scale matters

Martin Predavec A D , Daniel Lunney A B , Ian Shannon A , John Lemon C , Indrie Sonawane A and Mathew Crowther B
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations

A Science Division, Office of Environment and Heritage NSW, PO Box 1967, Hurstville, NSW 2220, Australia.

B School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.

C JML Environmental Consultants Pty Ltd, 9127 Kamilaroi Highway, Gunnedah, NSW 2380, Australia.

D Corresponding author. Email: martin.predavec@environment.nsw.gov.au

Australian Mammalogy 40(1) 47-57 https://doi.org/10.1071/AM16059
Submitted: 30 November 2016  Accepted: 17 March 2017   Published: 19 May 2017

Abstract

Scale matters when assessing population trends. Whereas traditional field-based ecological surveys are generally restricted to small temporal and spatial scales, community (citizen science) surveys allow wider consideration of population trends. We used repeat community surveys (completed in 2006 and 2015) to assess population change in koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) across an area of 36 900 km2 in the north-west of New South Wales. In both community surveys we asked respondents to record the location of their koala sightings as well as those of eight other common species. We further asked respondents about their perceptions of population change. Through three different measures (likelihood of koala occurrence, number of koalas observed per respondent, and the perception of population change), we found that koala numbers were declining across the region during the study period. The timing and broad and consistent geographic spread of the decline suggests that broad-scale environmental factors, such as weather, are important drivers of this change. This information will allow managers to place conservation efforts into an appropriate spatial context. While such information sourced from the community can provide critical information on threatened species, including the koala, this study highlights the limits of such information.

Additional keywords: community wisdom, population cycles, population decline, Phascolarctos cinereus, refuges.


References

Adams-Hosking, C., McBride, M. F., Baxter, G., Burgman, M., de Villiers, D., Kavanagh, R., Lawler, I., Lunney, D., Melzer, A., Menkhorst, P., Molsher, R., Moore, B. D., Phalen, D., Rhodes, J. R., Todd, C., Whisson, D., and McAlpine, C. A. (2016). Use of expert knowledge to elicit population trends for the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus). Diversity & Distributions 22, 249–262.
Use of expert knowledge to elicit population trends for the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus).Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Averell, L., and Heathcote, A. (2011). The form of the forgetting curve and the fate of memories. Journal of Mathematical Psychology 55, 25–35.
The form of the forgetting curve and the fate of memories.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Barlass, T. (2013). Reserve burnt to a cinder. The Sydney Morning Herald. Available at: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/reserve-burnt-to-a-cinder-20130119-2d000.html [accessed 15 November 2016].

Clench, H. (1979). How to make regional lists of butterflies: some thoughts. Journal of the Lepidopterists Society 33, 216–231.

Crowther, M. S., McAlpine, C. A., Lunney, D., Shannon, I., and Bryant, J. V. (2009). Using broad-scale, community survey data to compare species conservation strategies across regions: a case study of the koala in a set of adjacent ‘catchments’. Ecological Management & Restoration 10, S88–S96.
Using broad-scale, community survey data to compare species conservation strategies across regions: a case study of the koala in a set of adjacent ‘catchments’.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Ebbinghaus, H. (1885). ‘Memory: A Contribution to Experimental Psychology.’ (Teachers College, Columbia University: New York.)

Fox, P. (1996). ‘Warrumbungle National Park’. (NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service: Sydney.)

Graham, L. J., Haines-Young, R. H., and Field, R. (2015). Using citizen science data for conservation planning: methods for quality control and downscaling for use in stochastic patch occupancy modelling. Biological Conservation 192, 65–73.
Using citizen science data for conservation planning: methods for quality control and downscaling for use in stochastic patch occupancy modelling.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Gunnedah Shire Council (2015). Gunnedah Koala Strategy. Gunnedah Shire Council. Available at: http://gunnedah.nsw.gov.au/index.php/component/rsfiles/preview?path=GunnedahShireCouncil%252FDEVELOPMENT-PLANNING-AND-BUILDING%252FLANDUSE-PLANNING%252FEnvironmental-Management%252FGunnedah%2BKoala%2BStrategy%2B-%2BOctober%2B2015.pdf [accessed 7 April 2017]

IUCN (2012). ‘IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria: Version 3.1.’ 2nd edn. (IUCN: Gland, Switzerland, & Cambridge, UK.)

Kavanagh, R. P., and Barrott, E. (2001). Koala populations in the Pilliga Forests. In ‘Perfumed Pineries: Environmental History of Australia’s Callitris Forests’. (Eds J. Dargavel, D. Hart and B. Libbis.) pp. 93–103. (CRES, Australian National University: Canberra.)

Knott, T., Lunney, D., Coburn, D., and Callaghan, J. (1998). An ecological history of koala habitat in Port Stephens Shire and the Lower Hunter on the central coast of New South Wales, 1801–1998. Pacific Conservation Biology 4, 354–368.
An ecological history of koala habitat in Port Stephens Shire and the Lower Hunter on the central coast of New South Wales, 1801–1998.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Letnic, M., and Dickman, C. R. (2006). Boom means bust: interactions between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), rainfall and the processes threatening mammal species in arid Australia. Biodiversity and Conservation 15, 3847–3880.
Boom means bust: interactions between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), rainfall and the processes threatening mammal species in arid Australia.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Lomolino, M. V., and Channell, R. (1995). Splendid isolation: patterns of geographic range collapse in endangered mammals. Journal of Mammalogy 76, 335–347.
Splendid isolation: patterns of geographic range collapse in endangered mammals.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Lunney, D., and Moon, C. (2012). An ecological history of Australia’s forests and fauna (1770–2010). In ‘Encyclopaedia of Life Support Systems’. (Eds M. Agnoletti, E. Johann and S. Serneri.) (Eolss Publishers: Oxford.) Available at: http://www.eolss.net/Sample-Chapters/C09/E6-156-26.pdf [accessed 14 November 2016].

Lunney, D., Crowther, M. S., Shannon, I., and Bryant, J. V. (2009). Combining a map-based public survey with an estimation of site occupancy to determine the recent and changing distribution of the koala in New South Wales. Wildlife Research 36, 262–273.
Combining a map-based public survey with an estimation of site occupancy to determine the recent and changing distribution of the koala in New South Wales.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Lunney, D., Close, R., Bryant, J., Crowther, M. S., Shannon, I., Madden, K., and Ward, S. (2010). Campbelltown’s koalas: their place in the natural history of Sydney. In ‘The Natural History of Sydney’. (Eds D. Lunney, P. Hutchings and D. Hochuli.) pp. 319–325. (Royal Zoological Society of New South Wales.) Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.7882/FS.2010.026 [accessed 22 January 2014].

Lunney, D., Crowther, M. S., Wallis, I., Foley, W. J., Lemon, J., Wheeler, R., Madani, G., Orscheg, C., Griffith, J. E., Krockenberger, M., Retamales, M., and Stalenberg, E. (2012). Koalas and climate change: a case study on the Liverpool Plains, north-west New South Wales. In ‘Wildlife and Climate Change: Towards Robust Conservation Strategies for Australian Fauna’. (Eds D. Lunney and P. Hutchings.) pp. 150–168. (Royal Zoological Society of New South Wales: Sydney.) Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.7882/FS.2012.022 [accessed 8 July 2014].

Lunney, D., Predavec, M., Miller, I., Kavanagh, R., Barrott-Brown, G., Phillips, S., Callaghan, J., Mitchell, D., Parnaby, H., Paull, D., Shannon, I., Ellis, M., Price, O., and Milledge, D. (2016a). The remaining koalas of the Pilliga forests, northwest NSW: refugial persistence or a population on the road to extinction? Final report for the NSW Environmental Trust, Sydney.

Lunney, D., Predavec, M., Miller, I., Shannon, I., Fisher, M., Moon, C., Matthews, A., Turbill, J., and Rhodes, J. R. (2016b). Interpreting patterns of population change in koalas from long-term datasets in Coffs Harbour on the north coast of New South Wales. Australian Mammalogy 38, 29–43.
Interpreting patterns of population change in koalas from long-term datasets in Coffs Harbour on the north coast of New South Wales.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Lunney, D., Wells, A., and Miller, I. (2016c). An ecological history of the koala Phascolarctos cinereus in Coffs Harbour and its environs, on the mid-north coast of New South Wales, c1861–2000. Proceedings of the Linnean Society of New South Wales 138, 1–48.

McAlpine, C., Lunney, D., Melzer, A., Menkhorst, P., Phillips, S., Phalen, D., Ellis, W., Foley, W., Baxter, G., de Villiers, D., Kavanagh, R., Adams-Hosking, C., Todd, C., Whisson, D., Molsher, R., Walter, M., Lawler, I., and Close, R. (2015). Conserving koalas: a review of the contrasting regional trends, outlooks and policy challenges. Biological Conservation 192, 226–236.
Conserving koalas: a review of the contrasting regional trends, outlooks and policy challenges.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Niche Environment and Heritage (2014). Koala plan of management. Mary’s Mount blue metal gravel quarry. Report prepared for Gunnedah Quarry Products Pty Ltd, Sydney.

Predavec, M. (2002). Response to disturbance and land management practices: NSW Western Regional Assessments. WRA31. Resource and Conservation Assessment Council of NSW, Sydney.

Predavec, M., Lunney, D., Shannon, I., Scotts, D., Turbill, J., and Faulkner, B. (2015). Mapping the likelihood of koalas across New South Wales for use in Private Native Forestry: developing a simple, species distribution model that deals with opportunistic data. Australian Mammalogy 37, 182–193.
Mapping the likelihood of koalas across New South Wales for use in Private Native Forestry: developing a simple, species distribution model that deals with opportunistic data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Predavec, M., Lunney, D., Hope, B., Stalenberg, E., Shannon, I., Crowther, M. S., and Miller, I. (2016). The contribution of community wisdom to conservation ecology. Conservation Biology 30, 496–505.
The contribution of community wisdom to conservation ecology.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

R Development Core Team (2016). R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna. Available at: http://www.R-project.org [accessed 16 February 2017].

Reed, P., and Lunney, D. (1990). Habitat loss: the key problem for the long-term survival of koalas in New South Wales. In ‘Koala Summit: Managing Koalas in New South Wales’. pp. 9–31. (NSW National Parks & Wildlife Service: Sydney.)

Reed, P., Lunney, D., and Walker, P. (1990). A 1986–1987 survey of the koala Phascolarctos cinereus (Goldfuss) in New South Wales and an ecological interpretation of its distribution. In ‘Biology of the Koala’. (Eds A. K. Lee, K. A. Handasyde and G. D. Sanson.) pp. 55–74. (Surrey Beatty: Sydney.)

Seabrook, L., McAlpine, C., Baxter, G., Rhodes, J., Bradley, A., and Lunney, D. (2011). Drought-driven change in wildlife distribution and numbers: a case study of koalas in south west Queensland. Wildlife Research 38, 509–524.
Drought-driven change in wildlife distribution and numbers: a case study of koalas in south west Queensland.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Sequeira, A. M. M., Roetman, P. E. J., Daniels, C. B., Baker, A. K., and Bradshaw, C. J. A. (2014). Distribution models for koalas in South Australia using citizen science–collected data. Ecology and Evolution 4, 2103–2114.
Distribution models for koalas in South Australia using citizen science–collected data.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Silvertown, J. (2009). A new dawn for citizen science. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 24, 467–471.
A new dawn for citizen science.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

Tulloch, A. I. T., Possingham, H. P., Joseph, L. N., Szabo, J., and Martin, T. G. (2013). Realising the full potential of citizen science monitoring programs. Biological Conservation 165, 128–138.
Realising the full potential of citizen science monitoring programs.Crossref | GoogleScholarGoogle Scholar |

van Kempen, E. (1997). A history of the Pilliga cypress pine forests. State Forests of New South Wales, Sydney.