IF QUANTIFIED RISK ASSESSMENT ISTHE ANSWER, ARE WE ASKING THE WRONG QUESTION?

Abstract

Regulatory bodies in Australia are taking an increasing interest in quantified risk assessment for assessing the significance of risks to worker safety and the environment associated with oil and gas exploration and production. In principle, quantified risk assessment (QRA) provides an objective, independent assessment of the risks associated with a particular activity or development, thereby enabling risk management decisions to be better informed. However, there are significant uncertainties associated with QRA which limit its potential to contribute to decision making.

This article considers the limitations of QRA in decision making and proposes a policy framework within which safety and environmental risks can be assessed and decisions made. The proposed framework considers issues such as uncertainty in QRA, risk communication, the role of regulatory bodies and the need for credibility in the QRA process. The role of QRA is seen as assisting in clarifying the implications of various courses of action for decisionmakers, assisting in making decisions on safety issues and bringing a structured and analytical approach to assessments.