ASSESSMENT—TRANSLATING THE FUTURE INTO NUMBERS

Abstract

Geological risk assessment is a comprehensive method used to compare different exploration opportunities at the prospect and play scale. Though common place in the petroleum exploration industry for decades, the assessment method can be updated and made more powerful when integrated with recent advances in geological concepts and technology, such as petroleum systems, relational databases and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Empirical analysis of field size distributions and discovery histories is another traditional method for estimating undiscovered hydrocarbon potential for sedimentary basins or particular play types rather than for individual prospects. New mathematical descriptions of natural populations are available to further refine this approach; and the natural population of hydrocarbon fields is now seen as the petroleum system, rather than the basin or play. A key development has been the realisation that the methods of risk assessment can be applied to other complex decision making situations including environmental and resource planning.