Uncertainty analysis on environmental impacts of hydraulic fracturing
Abbas Movassagh A * , Elaheh Arjomand A , Dane Kasperczyk A , James Kear A and Tess Dance AA CSIRO Energy, Melbourne, Vic. 3168, Australia.
The APPEA Journal 62(1) 310-318 https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ21071
Submitted: 21 December 2021 Accepted: 16 February 2022 Published: 13 May 2022
© 2022 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of APPEA.
Abstract
Uncertainty is an undeniable aspect of underground operations, such as wellbore stimulation treatments, where combined rock and fluid interaction add a layer of complexity to the uncertainty. There are social and environmental concerns about the probable outcome of operations like hydraulic fracturing. Hydraulic fracturing treatments may affect the integrity of sub-surface geological strata or might initiate unexpected potential risks to the environment when the created fracture extends beyond its engineered design. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate a range of possible scenarios by which the fracture may experience a deviation from its planned behaviour. In this study, we model the uncertainty associated with hydraulic fracturing using fracture growth simulation. The uncertainty of a range of treatment parameters, such as pumping flow rate, injection duration and mechanical properties of the underground geological layer, is investigated. Monte Carlo simulation is used to examine different probable fracturing scenarios and numerous fracturing simulations with numerical and analytical models. The probability analysis is performed in a case study to identify the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of fracture growth. The emerging least, median and most likely situations of fracture growth are analysed to evaluate the fracturing uncertainty. Our results indicate that the numerical modelling approach may predict a more extensive fracture growth in the vertical plane. The numerical model may suggest a more conservative way to address environmental concerns. The resulting cumulative distribution of probabilities suggests the CDFs of the analytical model as the lower band for fracture length, whereas the numerical CDFs presents the upper band.
Keywords: environment, fracture propagation, hydraulic fracturing, Monte Carlo simulation, numerical modelling, P3D model, probability distribution, uncertainty analysis.
Abbas Movassagh is a Research Scientist with the CSIRO Energy Business Unit. His research focuses on environmental and uncertainty analysis, including hydraulic fracturing experiments and modelling. Abbas acquired his PhD from The University of Adelaide and has more than 12 years’ experience in reservoir engineering and geomechanics. |
Elaheh Arjomand started her Post-doc Fellowship with CSIRO in mid-2019, and her research is mainly focused on the integrity of wells after decommissioning and abandonment. Elaheh completed her PhD on the integrity of the cement sheath after being subjected to pressure and temperature variations with the University of Adelaide in 2018. |
Dane Kasperczyk is a Senior Engineer with the CSIRO Energy Business Unit. He has 9 years’ experience in field-scale hydraulic fracturing for mining and conducting hydraulic fracture laboratory experiments focused on fractures crossing natural boundaries. He holds civil engineering and science degrees from University of Melbourne. |
James Kear is a Civil and Environmental Engineer and is the leader of the Hydraulic Fracturing Research Team at CSIRO. He has research experience in the fields of hydraulic fracturing, rock mechanics, sustainable design and systems thinking. James’ Hydraulic Fracturing Research Team undertakes development of hydraulic fracture models, experimental investigation of hydraulic fracture growth, novel hydraulic fracture field applications and tiltmetre monitoring and analysis of hydraulic fracture growth. |
Tess Dance has a PhD from the University of Adelaide and has worked for more than 15 years in the field of Carbon Capture and Storage characterising sites for the geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO2), first with Geoscience Australia’s Petroleum and Marine division in Canberra and now with CSIRO Energy in Perth. Her expertise is in sedimentology and sequence stratigraphy and 3D geological modelling for CO2 uncertainty risking. She is the Chief Geologist for the CO2CRC Otway Project, Australia’s first demonstration pilot site focused on understanding the geological characteristics that influence residual trapping and dissolution storage mechanisms in a saline aquifer. |
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