Increasing fire danger in the Netherlands due to climate change

Hugo A. Lambrechts; Raoul D. H. Sooijs; Spyridon Paparrizos; Fulco Ludwig; Cathelijne R. Stoof

doi:10.1071/WF24020

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Previous Contents Vol 33(12)

Increasing fire danger in the Netherlands due to climate change

Hugo A. Lambrechts

^A ^* , Raoul D. H. Sooijs ^A , Spyridon Paparrizos ^A , Fulco Ludwig ^A and Cathelijne R. Stoof ^B

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A Earth Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University and Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, Wageningen, 6708PB, The Netherlands.

^B Soil Physics and Land Management Group, Wageningen University and Research, P.O. Box 47, Wageningen, 6700AA, The Netherlands.

^* Correspondence to: hugo.lambrechts@wur.nl

International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF24020 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF24020

Submitted: 30 January 2024 Accepted: 12 October 2024 Published: 21 November 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC)

Abstract

Background

Temperatures and extreme weather events in Northwestern Europe are expected to increase due to climate change. As a result, longer and more intense water deficits are expected, resulting in weather conditions conducive to wildfires.

Aims

We assessed the impact of recent and future climate change on fire danger in the Netherlands.

Methods

Historical weather data and climate scenarios in combination with the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) were used to assess historical and future trends in fire danger.

Key results

Our analyses showed that, especially during the last decade (2011–2020), the number of days at elevated fire danger has increased. The number of days with elevated fire danger is projected to double by mid-century compared to the reference period 1981–2010 for high emission scenarios. The days at elevated fire danger during the last decade were already comparable to predictions for 2085, indicating that the climate change scenarios may underestimate future fire danger.

Conclusions

Days at elevated fire danger increased over the last four decades and will continue to do so under future climate scenarios.

Implications

The Netherlands needs to prepare for more days with weather conducive to wildfires.

Keywords: adaptation, Canadian fire weather index, climate change, fire danger, fire management, Netherlands, Northwestern Europe, wildfire risk.

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