Pre-fire assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards in the Santa Fe Municipal Watershed

Manuel Lopez; Ellis Margolis; Anne Tillery; Steve Bassett; Alan Hook

doi:10.1071/WF23065

RESEARCH ARTICLE (Open Access)

Previous Contents Vol 33(9)

Pre-fire assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards in the Santa Fe Municipal Watershed

Manuel Lopez ^A ^* , Ellis Margolis ^B , Anne Tillery ^C , Steve Bassett

^D and Alan Hook ^E

+ Author Affiliations

- Author Affiliations

^A National Forest Foundation, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA.

^B U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, New Mexico Landscapes Field Station, 301 Dinosaur Trail, Santa Fe, NM 87508, USA.

^C U.S. Geological Survey, New Mexico Water Science Center, USA.

^D The Nature Conservancy in New Mexico, USA.

^E The City of Santa Fe, Water Division, New Mexico, USA.

^* Correspondence to: mlopez@nationalforests.org

International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF23065 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23065

Submitted: 4 May 2023 Accepted: 19 May 2024 Published: 22 August 2024

© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of IAWF. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY).

Abstract

Background

Wildfires are increasing in size and severity due to climate change combined with overstocked forests. Fire increases the likelihood of debris flows, posing significant threats to life, property, and water supplies.

Aims

We conducted a debris-flow hazard assessment of the Santa Fe Municipal Watershed (SFMW) to answer two questions: (1) where are debris flows most likely to occur; and (2) how much debris might they produce? We also document the influence of fuel treatments on fire severity and debris flows.

Methods

We modelled post-fire debris-flow likelihood and volume in 103 sub-basins for 2-year, 5-year, and Probable Maximum Precipitation rainfalls following modelled low-, moderate-, and high-severity wildfires.

Key results

Post-fire debris-flow likelihoods were >90% in all but the lowest fire and rain scenarios. Sub-basins with fuel treatments had the lowest burn severities, debris-flow likelihoods, and sediment volumes, but treatment effects decreased with increased fire severity and rain intensity.

Conclusions

Post-fire debris flows with varying debris volumes are likely to occur following wildfire in the SFMW, but fuel treatments can reduce likelihood and volume.

Implications

Future post-fire debris flows will continue to threaten water supplies, but fuel reduction treatments and debris-flow mitigation provide opportunities to minimise effects.

Keywords: debris-flow model, fire modelling, FlamMap, forest treatments, fuel treatments, New Mexico, post-fire hazards.

References

Abatzoglou JT, Williams AP (2016) Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, 11770-11775.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Allen CD, Savage M, Falk DA, Suckling KF, Swetnam TW, Schulke T, Stacey PB, Morgan P, Hoffman M, Klingel JT (2002) Ecological restoration of southwestern ponderosa pine ecosystems: a broad perspective. Ecological Applications 12, 1418-1433.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Bennett DE, Gosnell H, Lurie S, Duncan S (2014) Utility engagement with payments for watershed services in the United States. Ecosystem Services 8, 56-64.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Bodí MB, Martin DA, Balfour VN, Santín C, Doerr SH, Pereira P, Cerdà A, Mataix-Solera J (2014) Wildland fire ash: production, composition and eco-hydro-geomorphic effects. Earth-Science Reviews 130, 103-127.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Bonnin GM, Martin D, Lin B, Parzybok T, Yekta M, Riley D (2006) Precipitation-frequency atlas of the United States. NOAA atlas 14(2). U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD.

Bradshaw L, McCormick E (2000) FireFamily Plus user’s guide, Version 2.0. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-67. p. 67. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ogden, UT) 10.2737/RMRS-GTR-67

Cannon SH (2001) Debris-flow generation from recently burned watersheds. Environmental & Engineering Geoscience 7, 321-341.
| Google Scholar |

Cannon S, DeGraff J (2009) The increasing wildfire and post-fire debris-flow threat in western USA, and implications for consequences of climate change. In ‘Landslides – Disaster Risk Reduction’. (Eds K Sassa, P Canuti) (Springer: Berlin, Heidelberg) 10.1007/978-3-540-69970-5_9

Cannon SH, Gartner JE (2005) Wildfire-related debris flow from a hazards perspective. In ‘Debris-Flow Hazards and Related Phenomena’. Springer Praxis Books. (Eds M Jakob, O Hungr) pp. 363–385. (Springer: Berlin, Heidelberg) 10.1007/3-540-27129-5_15

Cannon SH, Reneau SL (2000) Conditions for generation of fire-related debris flows, Capulin Canyon, New Mexico. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 25, 1103-1121.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Cannon SH, Gartner J, Parrett C, Parise M (2003) Wildfire-related debris-flow generation through episodic progressive sediment-bulking processes, western USA. In ‘Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction, and Assessment’. (Eds C-L Chen, JJ Major) pp. 71–82. (Millpress Science Publishers: Rotterdam, Netherlands)

Cannon SH, Gartner JE, Rupert MG, Michael JA, Rea AH, Parrett C (2010) Predicting the probability and volume of postwildfire debris flows in the intermountain western United States. GSA Bulletin 122, 127-144.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Chiocchio E (2013) Forest and Water Climate Adaptation: A Plan for the Santa Fe Watershed. Model Forest Policy Program in association with Santa Fe Watershed Association, the City of Santa Fe, Cumberland River Compact and Headwaters Economics. Sagle, ID, USA.

Coe J, Kean J, Godt J, Baum R, Jones E, Gochis D, Anderson G (2014) New insights into debris-flow hazards from an extraordinary event in the Colorado Front Range. GSA Today 24, 4-10.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Colorado-New Mexico Regional Extreme Precipitation Study (2018) Summary Report, Volume II: Deterministic Regional Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation. (Colorado Department of Natural Resources and New Mexico Office of the State Engineer). Available at www.appliedweatherassociates.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2._co-nm_reps_summary_report_volume_ii__task_i__final_nov_2018.pdf

Coop JD, Parks SA, Stevens-Rumann CS, Crausbay SD, Higuera PE, Hurteau MD, Tepley A, Whitman E, Assal T, Collins BM, Davis KT, Dobrowski S, Falk DA, Fornwalt PJ, Fulé PZ, Harvey BJ, Kane VR, Littlefield CE, Margolis EQ, North M, Parisien MA, Prichard S, Rodman KC (2020) Wildfire-driven forest conversion in western North American landscapes. BioScience 70, 659-673.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Covington WW, Moore MM (1994) Postsettlement changes in natural fire regimes and forest structure. Journal of Sustainable Forestry 2, 153-181.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Dunbar NW, Gutzler DS, Pearthree KS, Phillips FM, Bauer PW, Allen CD, DuBois D, Harvey MD, King JP, McFadden LD, Thomson BM, Tillery AC (2022) ‘Climate change in New Mexico over the next 50 years: Impacts on water resources’. Bulletin 164, 218. (New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources)

Finney MA (2006) An Overview of FlamMap Fire Modeling Capabilities. In ‘Fuel Management - How to Measure Success: Conference Proceedings’, 28–30 March. pp. 213–220. Available at https://doi.org/U.S. Forest Serice Research Paper RMRS-P-41

Gartner JE, Cannon SH, Santi PM (2014) Empirical models for predicting volumes of sediment deposited by debris flows and sediment-laden floods in the transverse ranges of southern California. Engineering Geology 176, 45-56.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Gorr AN, McGuire LA, Beers R, Hoch OJ (2023) Triggering conditions, runout, and downstream impacts of debris flows following the 2021 Flag Fire, Arizona, USA. Natural Hazards 117, 2472-2504.
| Google Scholar |

Guiterman CH, Margolis EQ, Allen CD, Falk DA, Swetnam TW (2018) Long-term persistence and fire resilience of oak shrubfields in dry conifer forests of northern New Mexico. Ecosystems 21, 943-959.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Hagmann RK, Hessburg PF, Prichard SJ, Povak NA, Brown PM, Fulé PZ, Keane RE, Knapp EE, Lydersen JM, Metlen KL, Reilly MJ, Sánchez Meador AJ, Stephens SL, Stevens JT, Taylor AH, Yocom LL, Battaglia MA, Churchill DJ, Daniels LD, Falk DA, Henson P, Johnston JD, Krawchuk MA, Levine CR, Meigs GW, Merschel AG, North MP, Safford HD, Swetnam TW, Waltz AEM (2021) Evidence for widespread changes in the structure, composition, and fire regimes of western North American forests. Ecological Applications 31, e02431.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Hessburg PF, Prichard SJ, Hagmann RK, Povak NA, Lake FK (2021) Wildfire and climate change adaptation of western North American forests: a case for intentional management. Ecological Applications 31, e02432.
| Crossref | Google Scholar | PubMed |

Horel J, Splitt M, Dunn L, Pechmann J, White B, Ciliberti C, Lazarus S, Slemmer J, Zaff D, Burks J (2002) Mesowest: cooperative mesonets in the western United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83, 211-226.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

IPCC (2012) 1981-2010 Annual average precipitation by state. (USDA/NRCS – National Geospatial Center of Excellence)

Jorgenson R, Puglisi A (2018a) McClure Dam Operation and Maintenance Manual: Office of State Engineer, Santa Fe Water Division File D-242. C-2.

Jorgenson R, Puglisi A (2018b) Nichols Dam Operation and Maintenance Manual: Office of State Engineer, Santa Fe Water Division File D-241. C-2.

Kean JW, Staley DM (2011) Direct measurements of the hydrologic conditions leading up to and during post‐fire debris flow in southern California, USA. Debris‐Flow Hazards Mitigation, Mechanics, Prediction, and Assessment 685-694.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Kean JW, Staley DM, Cannon SH (2011) In situ measurements of post‐fire debris flows in southern California: comparisons of the timing and magnitude of 24 debris‐flow events with rainfall and soil moisture conditions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 116(F4), F04019.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Kean JW, McCoy SW, Tucker GE, Staley DM, Coe JA (2013) Runoff‐generated debris flows: observations and modeling of surge initiation, magnitude, and frequency. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 118, 2190-2207.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Key CH, Benson NC (2006) Landscape assessment: Remote sensing of severity, the Normalized Burn Ratio. In ‘FIREMON: Fire Effects Monitoring and Inventory System’. General Technical Report, RMRS-GTR-164-CD. (Ed. DC Lutes) pp. 305–325. (USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station: Ogden, UT) 10.1002/app.1994.070541203

Lydersen JM, North MP, Collins BM (2014) Severity of an uncharacteristically large wildfire, the Rim Fire, in forests with relatively restored frequent fire regimes. Forest Ecology and Management 328, 326-334.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Margolis EQ, Balmat J (2009) Fire history and fire–climate relationships along a fire regime gradient in the Santa Fe Municipal Watershed, NM, USA. Forest Ecology and Management 258, 2416-2430.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

McGuire LA, Youberg AM (2020) What drives spatial variability in rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows? Insights from the 2018 Buzzard Fire, NM, USA. Landslides 17, 2385-2399.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

McGuire LA, Youberg AM, Rengers FK, Abramson NS, Ganesh I, Gorr AN, Hoch O, Johnson JC, Lamom P, Prescott AB, Zanetell J, Fenerty B (2021) Extreme precipitation across adjacent burned and unburned watersheds reveals impacts of low severity wildfire on debris‐flow processes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 126,.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Meyer GA (2002) Fire in western conifer forests—Geomorphic and ecologic processes and climatic drivers. Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs 34(6), 46.
| Google Scholar |

Miller JF, Frederick RH, Tracey RJ (1973) NOAA Atlas 2: Precipitation-frequency atlas of the Western United States Volume IV–New Mexico. U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service. Silver Springs, MD.

MTBS Data Access: Fire Level Geospatial Data (2017) MTBS Project. (USDA Forest Service/U.S. Geological Survey) Available at http://mtbs.gov/direct-download [last revised 12 July 2017]

Mueller SE, Thode AE, Margolis EQ, Yocom LL, Young JD, Iniguez JM (2020) Climate relationships with increasing wildfire in the southwestern US from 1984 to 2015. Forest Ecology and Management 460, 117861.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

PRISM Climate Group (2014) United States Average Total Precipitation 1981-2010. Oregon State University. Available at https://prism.oregonstate.edu/normals/ [data created 4 February 2014; accessed 1 January 2022]

Ramcharan A, Hengl T, Nauman T, Brungard C, Waltman S, Wills S, Thompson J (2018) Soil property and class maps of the conterminous United States at 100-meter spatial resolution. Soil Science Society of America Journal 82, 186-201.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Rhoades CC, Chow AT, Covino TP, Fegel TS, Pierson DN, Rhea AE (2019) The legacy of a severe wildfire on stream nitrogen and carbon in headwater catchments. Ecosystems 22(3), 643-657.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Römkens M, Young R, Poesen J, McCool D, El-Swaify S, Bradford J (1997) Soil erodibility factor (K). Compilers) In ‘Predicting soil erosion by water: a guide to conservation planning with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE)’. (Eds KG Renard, GR Foster, GA Weesies, DK McCool, DC Yoder) pp. 65–99. (Agric. HB: Washington, DC, USA)

Ryan KC, Opperman TS (2013) LANDFIRE – A national vegetation/fuels data base for use in fuels treatment, restoration, and suppression planning. Forest Ecology and Management 294, 208-216.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Schmidt K, Hanshaw M, Howle JF, Kean JW, Staley CM, Stock JD, Bawden GW (2011) Hydrologic conditions and terrestrial laser scanning of post-fire debris flows in the San Gabriel Mountains, CA, USA. . Italian Journal of Engineering Geology and Environment 583-593.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Singleton MP, Thode AE, Sánchez Meador AJ, Iniguez JM (2019) Increasing trends in high-severity fire in the southwestern USA from 1984 to 2015. Forest Ecology and Management 433, 709-719.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Soil Survey Staff (2023) Web Soil Survey. (Natural Resources Conservation Service, United States Department of Agriculture) Available at https://websoilsurvey.nrcs.usda.gov/app/WebSoilSurvey.aspx

Staley DM, Kean JW, Cannon SH, Schmidt KM, Laber JL (2013) Objective definition of rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the initiation of post-fire debris flows in southern California. Landslides 10, 547-562.
| Google Scholar |

Staley DM, Negri JA, Kean JW, Laber JL, Tillery AC, Youberg AM (2016) Updated logistic regression equations for the calculation of post-fire debris-flow likelihood in the western United States, Open-File Report. 10.3133/OFR20161106

Staley DM, Tillery AC, Kean JW, McGuire LA, Pauling HE, Rengers FK, Smith JB (2018) Estimating post-fire debris-flow hazards prior to wildfire using a statistical analysis of historical distributions of fire severity from remote sensing data. International Journal of Wildland Fire 27, 595-608.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Strahler AN (1957) Quantitative analysis of watershed geomorphology. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 38, 913.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Sugarbaker L, Constance EW, Heidemann HK, Jason AL, Lucas V, Saghy D, Stoker JM (2014) ‘The 3D Elevation Program initiative: a call for action.’ (US Geological Survey Reston: VA, USA)

Swetnam T, Baisan C (1996) Historical Fire Regime Patterns in the Southwestern United States Since AD 1700. In ‘Fire Effects in Southwestern Forests: Proceedings of the 2nd La Mesa Fire Symposium’. pp. 11–32. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, General Technical Report RM-GTR-286.

Tarboton DG (2019) ‘TauDEM Suite v5.3.7.’ (Hydrology Research Group, Utah State University, USA) Available at http://hydrology.usu.edu/taudem/taudem5/index.html

Tillery AC, Rengers FK (2020) Controls on debris-flow initiation on burned and unburned hillslopes during an exceptional rainstorm in southern New Mexico, USA. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 45, 1051-1066.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |

Tillery AC, Haas JR, Miller LW, Scott JH, Thompson MP (2014) Potential postwildfire debris-flow hazards: a prewildfire evaluation for the Sandia and Manzano Mountains and surrounding areas, central New Mexico. Scientific Investigations Report 2014-5161. USGS. 10.3133/sir20145161

Tillery AC, McFadden LD, Allen C (2022) Landscape change, fire and erosion (State or Local Government Series). Landscape change, fire and erosion. (New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources)

Williams AP, Livneh B, McKinnon KA, Hansen WD, Mankin JS, Cook BI, Smerdon JE, Varuolo-Clarke AM, Bjarke NR, Juang CS (2022) Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, e2114069119.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |