Projection of future wildfire emissions in western USA under climate change: contributions from changes in wildfire, fuel loading and fuel moisture
Yongqiang Liu A K , Yang Liu B , Joshua Fu C D , Cheng-En Yang C , Xingyi Dong C , Hanqin Tian E , Bo Tao F , Jia Yang G , Yuhang Wang H , Yufei Zou I and Ziming Ke J
+ Author Affiliations
- Author Affiliations
A Center for Forest Disturbance Science, USDA Forest Service, 320 Green Street, Athens, GA 30602, USA.
B Department of Environmental Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.
C Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA.
D Climate Change Science Institute and Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA.
E International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA.
F College of Agriculture, Food, and Environment, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40546, USA.
G College of Forest Resources, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS 39762, USA.
H School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA.
I Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, PO Box 999, Richland, WA 99352, USA.
J Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA.
K Corresponding author. Email: yongqiang.liu@usda.gov
International Journal of Wildland Fire 31(1) 1-13 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF20190
Submitted: 24 December 2020 Accepted: 13 November 2021 Published: 9 December 2021
Abstract
Numerous devastating air pollution events from wildfire smoke occurred in this century in the western USA, leading to severe environmental consequences. This study projects future fire emissions in this region under climate change with a focus on comparing the relative contributions from future changes in burned area, fuel loading and fuel moisture. The three properties were projected using an empirical fire model, a dynamical global vegetation model and meteorological conditions respectively. The regional climate change scenarios for the western USA were obtained by dynamical downscaling of global climate projections. The results show overall increasing wildfires and fuel loading and decreasing fuel moisture. As a result, fire emissions are projected to increase by ~50% from 2001–2010 to 2050–2059. The changes in wildfires and fuel loading contribute nearly 75% and 25% of the total fire emission increase, respectively, but the contribution from fuel moisture change is minimal. The findings suggest that the air pollution events caused by wildfire smoke could become much more serious in the western USA by the middle of this century, and that it would be essential to take the future changes in fuel conditions into account to improve the accuracy of fire emission projections.
Keywords: climate change, wildfire, emission, fuel loading, fuel moisture, vegetation modelling, dynamical climate downscaling, fire potential index, western United States.
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