Recognising spatial distribution shifts in southern beech Nothofagus in the Island of New Guinea in response to climate change
Zahra Salsabila Rosmaitsa
A * , Teguh Husodo A and Angga Yudaputra B
A
B
Abstract
The Island of New Guinea hosts the highest diversity of Nothofagus species within the distribution range of this genus. According to modelled predictions, climate change will likely affect the distribution and existence of the genus Nothofagus in future.
Research efforts on how climate change influences the distribution patterns in Nothofagus in New Guinea are therefore needed. The objective of this study is to understand the impact of climate change on suitable distribution areas of Nothofagus in New Guinea.
The Random Forest (RF) algorithm was used to understand the potential distribution change of Nothofagus in the Island of New Guinea under climate change scenarios. Occurrence records and climatic, topographical and edaphic spatial layers were used as inputs for model prediction of distribution change of Nothofagus in New Guinea. The CNRM-CM6-1-HR Global Climate Model (GCM) with climatic scenarios, and Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) 1–2.6 and SSP 5–8.5 were used to elucidate the potential distribution of Nothofagus under future climate change scenarios.
We found 328 presence records from 14 Nothofagus species in New Guinea. Results indicated that areas predicted to be suitable and highly suitable compared to current predictive distribution areas were reduced by ~9.24% in extent of the area using the SSP 1–2.6 climate scenario and 20.93% using the SSP 5–8.5 climate scenario.
The predictive model indicates that the potential future distribution of Nothofagus will decrease from the current potential distribution.
Knowledge of how climate change could influence the distribution patterns of Nothofagus will be useful for protecting these species in future. Furthermore, our findings are valuable for the discovery of unknown subpopulations in the predicted suitable regions.
Keywords: climate change, conservation, distribution, endemic plant, New Guinea, Nothofagus, Random Forest, species distribution modelling.
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