Biodiversity consequences of sea level rise in New Guinea

Abstract

Climate change poses a growing threat to biodiversity globally. Under changing conditions, affected species must either shift spatially to track changing conditions, adapt in terms of ecological tolerances, or become extinct. Currently, most climate change studies focus on direct climate effects on biodiversity and little attention is paid to the effects of sea level rise. We explore two scenarios of sea level rise (1 m and 6 m) and their implications for biodiversity across a major biodiversity hotspot, New Guinea. Marine intrusion at just 1 m of sea level rise is widespread, affecting large sectors of New Guinea. Protected areas (0?58.3% loss), ecoregions (0?90.0% loss) and endemic species (e.g., Pitohui incertus, 41?50% loss) across New Guinea would be affected by sea level rise within the projected range of likely occurrence.