The 2020 İzmir earthquake and its effect on COVID-19 cases

Abstract

On 30 October 2020, an earthquake measuring 6.9 moment magnitude occurred between Kusadasi and Samos, Türkiye, with a significant impact on buildings in the Bornova–Bayraklı district of İzmir. Immediately afterwards, a comprehensive study was commenced to investigate the relationship between the earthquake that occurred during the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic and case numbers at the Ege University, Faculty of Medicine’s Hospital in Bornova, İzmir. This cross-sectional study was carried out based on the records of those admitted to the university hospital with suspicion of COVID-19 in the pre-earthquake and post-earthquake periods of the pandemic. The microbiology laboratory of the hospital used reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) results as a dependent variable and compared with the time, age and gender as the independent variables, classified according to the timing of the earthquake. RT-PCR test results were positive in 11.60% of the whole study group; however, tests were 6.69% positive before the earthquake and increased to 23.42% afterwards (P < 0.001), which equated to an increase of 4.25 times (95% CI 4.04–4.47) when comparing pre- to post-earthquake RT-PCR positivity (P < 0.001). The positive COVID-19 RT-PCR detection rate among those aged 50 and over was greater by a factor of 1.15 (95% CI 1.06–1.23) compared to a younger age group (P < 0.001). There was no difference for the gender variable used in suspected case or contact tracing applications of COVID-19 PCR. However, when stratified by age and gender, in the female group, there was a 1.24-fold (95% CI 1.11–1.38) increase in the 50+ age group (26.2%) compared to the younger age group (22.2%) after the earthquake (P < 0.001). In the male group, the rate of laboratory diagnosis of COVID-19 before the earthquake was in the under-50 age group (7.6%) as compared to the >50 age group (5.2%; P < 0.001).