Interpretation of seasonal fire outlooks
Naomi Benger
A * , Paul Gregory B D and Paul Fox-Hughes C
A
B
C
D Present address:
Abstract
The Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) is a nationally consistent approach to forecasting fire danger for all major vegetation types found in Australia. AFDRS climate outlooks (Fire Danger Outlooks, FDOs) extending out to 3 months ahead are the first such operational products of their kind in the world. The products use the Bureau’s seasonal model Australian Community Climate Earth simulator – Seasonal (ACCESS-S2). The FDOs are currently available to fire agencies, and partner agencies involved in land management and fire prevention activities. To make sound planning decisions, climate outlooks should be used with other sources of intelligence to understand which components of the outlooks might be driving risk. It is prudent to consult temperature and rainfall outlooks with the FDOs as both these are contributing factors to fire danger conditions, but the FDOs have differing data foundations (hindcast periods) that need to be understood for correct interpretation. Previous comparative analysis showed the AFDRS hindcast period is warmer during the shoulder seasons for some regions; thus, a high chance of above average temperature might not be reflected as expected in the AFDRS outlooks. For this reason, it has been important to provide users with advice on how to best interpret the FDOs alongside the temperature outlooks. In this work, we continued the comparative analysis to determine how the rainfall differs over the hindcast periods and the subsequent operational implications when interpreting the outlooks in a strategic planning context.
Keywords: AFDRS, Australian Fire Danger Rating System, bushfire seasonal preparedness, climate outlooks, emergency management planning, hindcast analysis, interpretation of Fire Danger Outlooks, rainfall comparison.
References
Abram NJ, Henley BJ, Sen Gupta A, et al. (2021) Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia. Communications Earth & Environment 2, 8.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Benger N, Gregory P, Fox-Hughes P (2022) Progress towards a new national seasonal fire outlook. The Australian Journal of Emergency Management 37(4), 59-62.
| Google Scholar |
Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO (2022) State of the Climate 2022. (Commonwealth of Australia) Available at http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/2022/
Canadell JG, Meyer CP, Cook GD, Dowdy A, Briggs PR, Knauer J (2021) Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change. Nature Communications 12(1), 6921.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Clarke H, Lucas C, Smith P (2013) Changes in Australian fire weather between 1973 and 2010. International Journal of Climatology 33(4), 931-944.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Cowan T, Stone R, Wheeler M, Griffiths M (2020) Improving the seasonal prediction of northern Australian rainfall onset to help with grazing management decisions. Climate Services 19, 100-182.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Dowdy A (2018) Climatological variability of fire weather in Australia. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 57(2), 221-234.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Dowdy AJ, Field RD, Spessa AC (2016) Seasonal forecasting of fire weather based on a new global fire weather database. In ‘Proceedings for the 5th International Fire Behaviour and Fuels Conference’, 11–15 April 2016, Melbourne, Vic., Australia. (International Association of Wildland Fire: Missoula, MT, USA) Available at https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20170003345/downloads/20170003345.pdf
Fox-Hughes P (2008) A fire danger climatology for Tasmania. Australian Meteorological Magazine 57, 109-120.
| Google Scholar |
Harris S, Lucas C (2019) Understanding the variability of Australian fire weather between 1973 and 2017. PLoS ONE 14(9), e0222328.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Hollis JJ, Matthews S, Anderson WR, et al. (2024a) A framework for defining fire danger to support fire management operations in Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF23141.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Hollis JJ, Matthews S, Fox-Hughes P, et al. (2024b) Introduction to the Australian Fire Danger Rating System. International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF23140.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Hughes L (2003) Climate change and Australia: trends, projections and impacts. Austral Ecology 28, 423-443.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Jain P, Castellanos-Acuna D, Coogan SCP, et al. (2022) Observed increases in extreme fire weather driven by atmospheric humidity and temperature. Nature Climate Change 12, 63-70.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Marshall A, Gregory P, de Burgh-Day C, Griffiths M (2022) Subseasonal drivers of extreme fire weather in Australia and its prediction in ACCESS-S1 during spring and summer. Climate Dynamics 58(1–2), 523-553.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Risbey JS, Pook MJ, McIntosh PC, et al. (2009) On the remote drivers of rainfall variability in Australia. Monthly Weather Review 137(10), 3233-3253.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
Teague B, McLeod R, Pascoe S (2010) 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission. (Parliament of Victoria) Available at http://royalcommission.vic.gov.au/finaldocuments/summary/PF/VBRC_Summary_PF.pdf
Wedd R, Alves O, de Burgh-Day C, et al. (2022) ACCESS-S2: the upgraded Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 72(3), 218-242.
| Crossref | Google Scholar |
