Will Australian liquefied natural gas demand soar under the 21st Annual Conference of the Parties (COP21) targets?
Francois Tibi A , Nicolas Reid A B , Whitney Skinner A , Rob Grosvenor A and Anthony Smith AA BCG Australia, Level 43, 108 St Georges Terrace, WA 6000, Australia.
B Corresponding author. Email: reid.nicholas@bcg.com
The APPEA Journal 57(2) 556-560 https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ16241
Accepted: 18 April 2017 Published: 29 May 2017
Abstract
The ambitious 21st Annual Conference of the Parties (COP21) targets of over 200 countries to limit global warming require a significant reduction in green house gas (GHG) emissions by signatories; these reductions will require major shifts in the way that countries think about their supply mix. Although renewables are often the primary focus of emissions reductions, the role of natural gas in GHG emissions warrants consideration. Gas is ‘triple A’: affordable, abundant and available. It is also lower in GHG than other fossil fuel alternatives.
The future success and price stability of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects is intrinsically linked to the success of natural gas as a bridge fuel to a lower carbon future; although there was initial optimism about the potential of natural gas as a bridge fuel under COP21, further analysis shows that forecast demand for natural gas and LNG in new policy scenarios is likely lower than original forecasts, placing Australian producers’ existing and future projects in a challenging position; moving down the cost-curve where possible is the best way to ensure resilient demand even in a slower growth future environment.
François Tibi joined BCG in 2000 and coordinates BCG energy activities in South-East Asia, Australia and New Zealand and has considerable experience in upstream and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Francois graduated from Ecole Polytechnique and the French Petroleum Institute (IFP). François started his career working for TOTAL in exploration and production. Over his career, Francois has conducted and been involved in many projects related to the oil and gas sector, including cost performance programs; improving strategic and operational planning approaches and processes; defining funding strategies; reviewing unconventional gas business, possible scenarios for LNG markets in Asia Pacific, assessing LNG projects cost competitiveness; and evaluating LNG marketing organisations and readiness to cope with market changes. |
Nicholas Reid (Nick) is a Principal in BCG’s Perth office and a core member of BCG’s, Energy, Industrial Goods, Strategy and Operations practices. Nick has over 10 years of consulting experience and leads BCG’s Oil & Gas sector in Australia and New Zealand. Nick holds Bachelors of Engineering and Science with first class honours from the University of Melbourne, and an MBA with distinction from the London Business School. Over his career, Nick has conducted and been involved in many projects related to the oil & gas sector, including cost reduction, productivity and business improvement programmes; market entry strategies for specific oil & gas basins; strategic due diligences; operating and organizational model redesigns and technology strategies. |
Whitney Skinner is a Project Leader in BCG’s Sydney Office. Whitney originally joined BCG Toronto as an Associate, before transferring to Perth to join one of BCG’s fastest growing offices and follow her passion for the energy sector. Originally from Saskatchewan, she graduated with distinction from the University of Calgary with a Bachelors in General Commerce and also holds an MBA and a Masters of Science in Environment and Resources from Stanford University. Whitney’s experience spans technology strategy and implementation, sustainability and Indigenous communities, and global expansion and traded markets strategy. She is a core member of BCG’s Energy Practice Group in both Australia and North America. |
Rob Grosvenor joined BCG in 2016 and is a Consultant in the Melbourne Office. Rob holds a Bachelor of Engineering, majoring in Mechanical & Space Engineering, from The University of Queensland and was awarded the University Medal for outstanding academic results. He also holds an MBA from Melbourne Business School and was awarded the John Clemenger Memorial Prize for achieving the highest academic performance of Melbourne Business School’s MBA graduates in 2015. Prior to BCG, Rob was a Senior Engineer at Ford Motor Company in Australia. Rob worked in Product Development and was responsible for designing and releasing various automotive components. At BCG, Rob has been involved in a diverse range of projects in the energy sector, mining industry, and public sector. |
Anthony Smith joined BCG in 2016 and has primarily worked in the Energy and Public Sector practices. Prior to joining BCG, Anthony was a Senior Economist at the Productivity Commission, and has also worked at the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet and the Australian Treasury. He has experience providing economic analysis and advice in a range of areas, including infrastructure and major projects, industrial relations, social housing, justice reform, intellectual property, migration, superannuation, and business taxation. Anthony has degrees in Economics (First Class Honours) and Science from the University of Queensland. His Honours thesis focused on using portfolio theory approaches to quantitatively analyse energy security in the transport fuel supply. |
