A reserves driven view of the eastern Australian gas supply and demand balance through the 2020’s
Will PulsfordPoten & Partners, 9 Havelock St, West Perth, WA 6005, Australia. Email: wpulsford@poten.com
The APPEA Journal 57(2) 526-531 https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ16217
Accepted: 27 March 2017 Published: 29 May 2017
Abstract
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) issued a Gas Statement of Opportunities in March 2016, which reports that gas supply to the domestic and liquefied natural gas markets in eastern Australia will be largely satisfied by proved and probable reserves until 2026 and by the addition of contingent resources until 2030. However, in parallel, there are widely reported concerns by energy consumers of insufficient gas supplies to meet demand by the early 2020s and a lack of new gas supplies to replace existing expiring contracts. Gas shortages have already contributed to black outs and load shedding events in South Australia.
This paper reviews the eastern Australian gas supply position at a basin level. The AEMO basin level supply forecasts are reviewed and adjusted to generate forward profiles, which are consistent with reported reserves levels, production histories and depletion behaviour of typical gas fields.
The revised supply forecast is compared with the AEMO’s demand profiles, and the likely commercial behaviour of key participants in the market is considered to build a picture of the domestic gas supply-demand balance through the 2020s.
This analysis provides a transparent link from market outcomes back to the underlying reserves classifications to guide interpretation of supply-demand forecasts, and highlights the critical role of key suppliers in the eastern Australian gas market in the coming decade.
Keywords: coal seam gas, contingent resources, exploration, gas field development, gas industry regulation, gas reserves, LNG, natural gas, supply-demand balance.
Will Pulsford began his career with major upstream operators including Shell, Woodside and Chevron as a process and project engineer in upstream oil and gas and LNG export and import projects in Europe and Asia Pacific including North West Shelf, Browse Basin, Gorgon and Bass Strait. In 2006 Will moved into advisory consulting and is currently global upstream lead with Poten and Partners. During his consulting career Will has executed and reviewed asset development plans for Australian domestic gas and LNG projects including NWS, Browse, Wheatstone, Prelude, Abadi and CSG to LNG projects at Gladstone in Australia. Globally he has reviewed oil and gas developments in North and South America, Europe, Africa and Asia. Will holds a Master’s in Engineering Science from Oxford University, is a Chartered member of the Institute of Mechanical Engineers and Engineers Australia and a graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. |
References
AEMO (2016a). Gas Statement of Opportunities for Eastern and South-Eastern Australia, March 2016. Australian Energy Market Operator.AEMO (2016b). National Gas Forecasting Report for Eastern and South-Eastern Australia, December 2016. Australian Energy Market Operator.
Geoscience Australia and BREE (2014). Australian Energy Resource Assessment 2nd Edn. Geoscience Australia, Canberra. Available at: http://www.ga.gov.au/metadata-gateway/metadata/record/gcat_79675 [Verified 7 April 2017].
