FUTURE DEMANDS FOR FUEL IN AUSTRALIA

Abstract

Estimates of the future demand for fuels in Australia have been largely derived from observing the past relationship between fuel consumption and Australia's economic growth, and applying this relationship to a projection of Australia's growth in the 'seventies to ascertain the likely demand for fuel.

A basic assumption in this approach is that the observed relationship between the demand for fuel and economic growth will remain the same during the 'seventies.

The resultant forecast of total fuel demand in the next decade is interesting in that it is close to the Department of National Development's estimate, despite a different basis of assessment.

Within the total fuel market the evolution of Australia's fuel consumption pattern has been similar to that of the world generally, showing a strong tendency for petroleum to displace such traditional fuels as wood and coal from markets which they have supplied for many years. Natural gas is offering limited competition to petroleum products; hydro-electricity is supplementing coal-derived electricity; and nuclear energy remains, in Australia, a fuel of the future. Ten years ago, coal supplied 54% of all Australia's primary energy. Now, it commands only 44% of the market, a proportion that is expected to decrease further to about 37% by 1979-80. In absolute terms, coal consumption is likely to have increased by 118% over this 20-year period, from 640 million million B.T.U. in 1960-61 to 1,400 million million B.T.U. by 1979-80, while the corresponding increase in consumption of all energy is forecast to be 220% greater - from 1,193 million million B.T.U. to 3,841 million million B.T.U. over the same period. This relative decline in coal consumption appears to be slowing, as the markets most vulnerable to take-over by the petroleum fuels (such as locomotive fuel), have nearly all been lost, leaving only the two huge markets of electricity generation and the iron and steel industry, from which coal is not likely to be displaced in the foreseeable future.

The availability of petroleum has been largely responsible for the decline of coal. From a market share of 38% in 1960-61, petroleum fuels have now captured 49% of the market; by 1979-80, this proportion could have been expected to rise to about 56%, were it not for the comparatively recent discoveries of natural gas. As a result, petroleum is estimated to show a slight decline in its market share in the 1970's.

Having started its market penetration in Australia as recently as 1968, natural gas is forecast to supply almost 10% of the country's energy requirements by 1979-80. This growth is expected to be at the expense of petroleum products (particularly furnace fuel), and,, to a limited extent, coal.

The petroleum fuels likely to show the most significant growth rates over the next decade are aviation turbine fuel, automotive distillate and furnace fuel. The share of these three fuels in the total energy market is forecast to increase over the next decade. Aviation turbine fuel presently supplies 2.15% of all Australia's energy, a proportion which is expected to increase to 3.25% by 1979-80; the contribution of automotive distillate is forecast to increase from 6.19% to 7.18% in the same period; and furnace fuel is forecast to increase its own share from 14.03% to 14.10%.