The rising influence of ex-region fundamentals on Asian LNG prices

Abstract

The step change in liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand, given Europe’s pivot from Russian gas, has led to a scramble for volumes and a return to a long-term view on LNG supply. But even with the near-term focus on Europe, the sustained opportunity for LNG continues to remain in Asia, where we expect more than 440 Mtpa of demand in 2030. Given the urgency, Asian buyers and portfolio players with positions in Asia have rushed to the country with the scale of over 100 Mtpa of new supply available within this decade: the United States, setting the scene for the rising influence of Henry Hub prices in Asian LNG. We discuss how LNG pricing and liquidity in Asia continues to develop through 2030, with oil-indexation waning slowly and the increasing presence of Henry Hub-indexed volumes, which could make up to a third of Asian LNG imports in that year. We also anticipate the advent of the Permian’s Waha and Canada’s AECO in Asian LNG as Mexico and Canada begin exports to Asia later this decade. We conclude that the virtuous cycle of liquidity required to create an Asian LNG hub has likely been delayed, with short-term prices governed by European fundamentals and long-term prices increasingly by US fundamentals. For Australian LNG producers, this means both spot and term prices present substantial upside potential through 2030, with the deficit in Europe providing short-term upside and the geographical distance of alternative US supply providing long-term upside.