Geoscience Poster G4: A time series analysis of exploration in the North West Shelf

Abstract

Poster G4

The North West Shelf (NWS) of Australia has seen a stellar increase in oil and gas discoveries, from less than 30 just 50 years ago to more than 180 today. It also hosts the ‘NWS Project’, Australia’s largest resource development project involving petroleum extraction, offshore production platforms, LNG processing plant, and LNG export hub, contributing to over 50% of Australia’s LNG export in 2020. In the last decade, discoveries have slowed down, with only four discoveries since 2010. Here, we undertook a data-driven analysis of which factors contributed to this ‘NWS boom and bust’. We noted numerous factors, the most important ones being technology and economic drivers. We arrived at this conclusion by building a time series and correlating key exploration activities to the number of discoveries and oil price. We found that (a) exploration steadily increased from the late 1960s due to 2D seismic, which coincided with oil price surge, (b) improved computational capacity spurred 3D seismic acquisition in 1981, boosting discoveries, and (c) 3D seismic acquisition in frontier areas began in the late 2000s, with the rate of discoveries flattening in 2010 as drilling became more challenging. We observed large areas of undrilled acreage covered by 3D seismic with plans for future seismic acquisition despite some of these areas equating to expensive wells and higher risks. With further work on existing 3D seismic coupled with insights from upcoming acquisitions, we would be able to develop a better subsurface understanding of these frontier basins and apply the knowledge to petroleum exploration as well as emerging energy economies like geothermal and carbon capture and storage (CCS).

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