Concurrent 20. Presentation for: Finding winners in the hydrogen hype
Prakash Sharma A *A Wood Mackenzie, 3 Church Street, #29-01 Samsung Hub, Singapore.
The APPEA Journal 62 - https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ21369
Published: 3 June 2022
Abstract
Presented on Wednesday 18 May: Session 20
The global energy trade is set for its greatest transformation since the 1970s and the rise of OPEC (The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries). Electrification is central to this as countries plough money into renewables to reduce emissions and enhance energy security. But electrification can take the world only so far. With higher carbon prices looming on the horizon, fossil fuel exporters and industrial sectors – as well as heavy-duty trucking, shipping and aviation – need alternatives to decarbonise. Most are looking to electricity-based fuels and feedstocks such as hydrogen, ammonia and methanol to replace hydrocarbons. This will revolutionise energy trade, with total trade declining by as much as 50% and virtually all remaining traded oil gas and coal being either completely decarbonised or backed by offsets. With 147 GWel (giga‐watts electrolyser capacity) in announced projects, green hydrogen produced from renewable electricity is ahead of the game. And while its export supply chains are complex, requiring conversion into a ‘product’ to allow delivery, there is no exploration risk as in oil and gas projects. Worldwide, national hydrogen roadmaps are being passed, with virtually all oil and gas companies, utilities and industrials backing at least one hydrogen project. Focus is now shifting to future sources of hydrogen supply. Lenders will be drawn to locations with a proven track record of exporting natural resources, suitable conditions for low-cost renewable electricity and the potential for large-scale carbon capture. A few countries already stand out, but none more so than Australia. Using our proprietary research, we will present a case study evaluating hydrogen supply options from Australia, Saudi Arabia and Canada – delivered into key markets like Japan for different applications. We will also assess when costs will fall across the value chain – production, midstream and downstream – and reach parity to incumbent fuels.
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Keywords: Australia, bio energy, blue hydrogen, Canada, carbon emissions, carbon prices, CCUS, China, electrolysers, energy markets, green ammonia, green hydrogen, green methanol, green steel, India, innovation, Japan, long-duration storage, majors, mobility, net zero, renewable gas, Russia, Saudi Arabia, solar, South Korea, trade, venture capital, wind.
Prakash Sharma has over 25 years’ experience in energy, metals and mining, and climate change policy developments, ranging from change management to business strategy and commodity markets. He joined Wood Mackenzie in 2006 and is currently based in Singapore. He is responsible for net zero emissions scenario modelling, and leads discussions on hydrogen, CCUS, next-gen nuclear and geothermal technologies for WoodMac. He has presented to board and senior-level management teams, as well as at major industry conferences. Previously, Prakash spent 2 years in Beijing as head of Wood Mackenzie’s China research, guiding a team of analysts on China’s energy and economic trends, including supply-side reforms, inter-fuel competition and commodity prices. He has also led global coal markets analysis for 5 years, delivering research on decarbonisation policies, the impact of renewables, alternative scenarios and evolving patterns of supply and demand. Prakash is a Mining Engineer from the Indian Institute of Technology with an MBA from the International Management Institute in India. |
