Green pivot: can Australia master the hydrogen trade?
Prakash Sharma A D , Benjamin Gallagher B D and Jonathan Sultoon C DA Wood Mackenzie, Samsung Hub, Singapore.
B Wood Mackenzie, New York, The United States.
C Wood Mackenzie, One Park Place, Annapolis, The United States.
D Corresponding authors. Email: prakash.sharma@woodmac.com; benjamin.gallagher@woodmac.com; jonny.sultoon@woodmac.com
The APPEA Journal 61(2) 466-470 https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ20120
Accepted: 18 March 2021 Published: 2 July 2021
Abstract
Australia is in a bind. It is at the heart of the pivot to clean energy: it contains some of the world’s best solar irradiance and vast potential for large-scale carbon capture and storage; it showed the world the path forward with its stationary storage flexibility at the much vaunted Hornsdale power reserve facility; and it moved quickly to capitalise on low-carbon hydrogen production. Yet it remains one of the largest sources for carbon-intensive energy exports in the world. The extractive industries are still delivering thermal coal for power generation and metallurgical coal for carbon-intensive steel making in Asian markets. Even liquefied natural gas’s green credentials are being questioned. Are these two pathways compatible? The treasury and economy certainly benefit. But there is a huge opportunity to redress the source of those funds and jobs, while fulfilling the aspirations to reach net zero emissions by 2050. In our estimates, the low-carbon hydrogen economy could grow to become so substantial that 15% of all energy may be ultimately ‘carried’ by hydrogen by 2050. It is certainly needed to keep the world from breaching 2°C. Can Australia master the hydrogen trade? It is believed that it has a very good chance. Blessed with first-mover investment advantage, and tremendous solar and wind resourcing, Australia is already on a pathway to become a producer of green hydrogen below US$2/kg by 2030. How might it then construct a supply chain to compete in the international market with established trading partners and end users ready to renew old acquaintances? Its route is assessed to mastery of the hydrogen trade, analyse critical competitors for end use and compare costs with other exporters of hydrogen.
Keywords: Australia, green hydrogen, blue hydrogen, renewable gas, bioenergy, electrolysers, solar, wind, carbon emissions, net zero, CCUS, green ammonia, green methanol, green steel, venture capital, innovation, energy markets, hydrogen trade, carbon prices, long-duration storage, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Canada.
Prakash Sharma has over 25 years of experience in energy, metals and mining, and climate change policy developments, ranging from change management to business strategy and commodity markets. He joined Wood Mackenzie in 2006 and is currently based in Singapore. He leads integrated analysis, energy transition, emerging technologies and cross-commodity discussions in Asia Pacific. He has presented to board and senior-level management teams, as well as at major industry conferences. Previously, Prakash spent 2 years in Beijing as head of Wood Mackenzie’s China research, guiding a team of analysts on China’s energy and economic trends, including supply-side reforms, interfuel competition and commodity prices. He has also led global coal markets analysis for 5 years, delivering research on decarbonisation policies, the impact of renewables, alternative scenarios and evolving patterns of supply and demand. Prakash is a Mining Engineer from the Indian Institute of Technology with an MBA from the International Management Institute in India. |
Benjamin Gallagher is a subject-matter expert in carbon and emerging technology for Wood Mackenzie’s energy transition practice. His specialty is in the role of hydrogen particularly the electrolyser market and cost at source. Prior to this role, Ben was a senior solar analyst specialising in PV systems and balance-of-system components. Before joining Wood Mackenzie, Ben worked in China and the United States in clean techmanufacturing and for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Ben holds a bachelor’s degree in East Asian studies from Skidmore College and a master’s degree in international environmental policy from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. |
Jonathan Sultoon has over 18 years of experience leading analysis for global energy markets, including power, coal, gas and LNG. He leads a team of analysts designing research for the energy transition. The team extends across all segments, all markets, and all fuels and technologies. Previously, Jonathan led Wood Mackenzie’s global coal markets practice. His areas of expertise were in supply, demand and price forecasting for the international coal markets, competition between multifuels in the power generation sector across Europe and Asia, and corporate analyses of the major producers and utilities. Jonathan fulfilled a similar role covering European gas and power between 2006 and 2008, driving short- and long-term European gas market fundamentals and provided expert support on bespoke consulting projects in the European gas and power arena. Jonathan holds a BA (Hons) and MA (Hons) in physics from the University of Oxford, the United Kingdom. |
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