Australia’s LNG wars – an industry under fire

Abstract

As the construction of Australia’s impressive liquefied natural gas (LNG) arsenal (that included multiple world firsts) ends, new weapons and tactics will now be employed. The industry is coming under fire politically, and new battle fronts are emerging as renewables rise in the power generation mix. Amidst the brave new industry landscape, some Australian LNG projects and companies will advance and add value, while others will retreat.

In this paper I ask the questions ‘how will the Australian LNG industry survive in the face of softer prices; and how will industry strategy be adapted?’ I will provide an outlook for Australia’s LNG sector and how it will continue the fight for market share at the global level. Cost will be king and Australia will march forward if the troops can be rallied. I highlight the challenges that the industry faces from various policy fronts, and discuss the risks posed by the ever growing multitude of cries for government intervention across the sector, as friendly fire from policy makers hamper progress. I critically analyse the case for domestic gas reinforcements: will a west east pipeline come to the rescue, or will Queensland LNG ‘advance to the rear’, or perhaps the world’s largest LNG exporter turn importer?

Opportunities for more value remain for the brave as Australia faces a new gas paradigm amidst tumultuous global conditions.