LNG demand: do we have enough gas? Our gas prices? Our gas future? Somebody help!
Olumide AdisaEnergy Exemplar.
The APPEA Journal 55(2) 494-494 https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ14129
Published: 2015
Abstract
These are interesting times for the eastern Australian gas market with Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) projects coming online. The previously steady and long-term contract market for domestic gas supply on the east coast will be subject to market forces that are in part determined on the global stage. How will the market respond to these changes?
The answer requires a comprehensive analysis of several scenarios and sensitivities around market models, as well as sophisticated modelling to capture these possibilities. This requires a tool that allows detailed modelling of the physical delivery of gas from production fields, through pipelines and storages (including linepack) to demand points, with the capability to model any physical/financial constraint along the supply chain. The future lies in these scenarios and sensitivities.
Employing a model developed through PLEXOS® gas module, this extended abstract analyses the effect of LNG on the domestic gas prices and supply in the short-to-medium and long-term. To establish any potential risk of gas shortage or particularly high prices, an analysis of the market was carried out from 2014 to 2023. Running several sensitivities on the demand forecast in this period, LNG effects on the market operations are examined.
Olumide Adisa graduated with a BSc first class in Applied Mathematics and Electronics at North West University, South Africa, in 2007 and completed his Honors in Applied Mathematics at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in 2008. Olumide started his PhD in Australia the following year and graduated from the University of Adelaide in 2012 with a Dean’s Award for Doctoral Thesis Excellence. His PhD thesis focused on mathematical modelling of gas storage in nanosystems. Prior to joining Energy Exemplar in September 2013, Olumide worked as a researcher in the School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Adelaide. Olumide works as the gas systems analyst in the gas team at Energy Exemplar, the developers of the electric and gas market simulation software PLEXOS® Integrated Energy Model. |
References
Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), 2013—Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO). Sydney: AEMO.Deloitte, 2014—Gas market transformations – Economic Consequences for the Manufacturing Sector. Sydney: Deloitte Access Economics.
Domgas Alliance, 2012—Australia’s Domestic Gas Security. Perth: DomGas Alliance.
Intelligent Energy Systems, 2013—Study on the Australian Domestic Gas Market. Sydney: Department of Industry and Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics.
