Analysis of predictive performance in the Eromanga Basin
S. McIntyrePetroRA.
The APPEA Journal 52(2) 678-678 https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ11092
Published: 2012
Abstract
Strategic and operational management in the exploration and production business is characterised by prediction and decision making in a data-rich, high-uncertainty environment. Analysis of predictive performance since the 1970s by multiple researchers indicates that predictions are subject to over-confidence and optimism negatively impacting performance. The situation is the same for other areas of human endeavour also operating within data-rich, high-uncertainty environments.
Research in the fields of psychology and neuroscience indicates the way in which the human brain perceives, integrates and allocates significance to data is the cause. Significant effort has been dedicated to improving the quality of predictions. Many individual companies review their predictive performance during long periods, but few share their data or analysis with the industry at large. Data that is shared is generally presented at a high level, reducing transparency and making it difficult to link the analysis to the geology and data from which predictions are derived.
This extended abstract presents an analysis of predictive performance from the Eromanga Basin where pre-drill predictions and detailed production data during a period of decades is available in the public domain, providing an opportunity to test the veracity of past observations and conclusions. Analysis of the dataset indicates that predictions made using both deterministic and probabilistic methodologies have been characterised by over-confidence and optimism. The reasons for this performance are discussed and suggestions for improving predictive capability provided.
Steven McIntyre has a BSc (hons) in geology from Adelaide University. He has more than 30 years of experience in various geoscience and planning roles at Esso, Ampolex, Santos, and Rose and Associates. He is presently an independent provider of risk-analysis training and consulting support to the E&P industry. |
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