Using size distribution analysis to forecast natural gas resources in Asia Pacific*
R. Aguilera A and R. Ripple ACentre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics (CREME), Curtin University.
The APPEA Journal 51(2) 722-722 https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ10102
Published: 2011
Abstract
Increasing energy consumption in the Asia Pacific region will largely be met by fossil fuel resources. Natural gas production in the region presently ranks behind that of oil and coal; however, the abundance of natural gas could lead to a significant gas market share increase in the energy mix.
The purpose of this extended abstract is to estimate the total endowment of conventional natural gas in Asia Pacific. This is carried out with a variable shape distribution (VSD) model, which forecasts volumes in provinces that have not been previously evaluated. The endowment is then distributed across countries to show where volumes are most likely to be found. A breakdown between offshore versus onshore resources is also estimated.
The results of the analysis show that there is a significant natural gas endowment in the region. The estimated distribution across countries and onshore/offshore areas provides insight into the relative economics of natural gas production in the region, as well as a basis for potential investment decisions. With appropriate energy policies and improvements in technology, it may be possible to tap the vast natural gas potential in the Asia Pacific. Considering natural gas may be the most abundant, inexpensive, and clean fossil fuel, the outcome would be increased energy security and a low carbon economy.
Roberto F. Aguilera is a Curtin research fellow with the Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics (CREME) at Curtin University. He was a program officer and research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria, an adjunct professor at the University of Vienna, and a postdoctoral fellow and associate instructor at the Catholic University of Chile. Roberto has participated in projects such as the US National Petroleum Council study Facing the Hard Truths About Energy, the Global Energy Assessment (GEA), and the UN Framework Classification for Fossil Energy and Mineral Reserves and Resources. He holds a BComm from the University of Calgary, and an MSc and a PhD in energy economics from the Colorado School of Mines, the United States. Member: Australian Institute of Energy (AIE), International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE), SPE, AAPG. |
Professor Ronald D. Ripple, director of the Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics (CREME), joined Curtin University in August 2008 as professor of mineral economics at the Western Australian School of Mines (WASM) following six years with the Department of Economics at Macquarie University in Sydney, including one year as head of department. He transferred to the Curtin Business School in 2009 to take up the position of professor of energy economics. Ron began his foray into energy markets in 1981 when joining the Office of the Governor of the State of Alaska as an energy economist. During the intervening 30 years, he has studied the economics of energy markets and the financial derivatives markets that play such an important role in this vital sector of the economy. Professor Ripple has published numerous academic papers, trade press articles, energy industry reports, and book chapters. |
References
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United States Geological Survey (USGS), 2000—World Petroleum Assessment. CD-ROM.
