THE SCIENCE UNDERLYING THE ISSUE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION

Abstract

The prospect of global-scale changes in climate resulting from changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has produced a complex set of public and private- sector responses. This paper reviews several elements of this issue that are likely to be most important to industry.

Scientific research continues to provide evidence to suggest that global climate will change significantly over the coming decades due to increases in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Nonetheless, there exists a debate over the difference between observations of temperature retrieved from satellite and temperature measurements taken from the surface. Recent research undertaken to inform the debate is discussed, with the conclusion that there are real differences in trend between the surface and the lower atmosphere that can be explained in physical terms. Attention is turning to developing an understanding as to why climate model results show apparently consistent trends between the surface and the lower atmosphere, in contrast to these observations.

While such uncertainties in the underlying science have been used to question whether action on the greenhouse issues is necessary, the initial response, as evidenced by international negotiations, has been to start mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation to future climate change has received less attention than mitigation. A number of reasons for this are discussed, including the fact that regional scenarios of climate change are uncertain.

The principles of risk management may be one way to manage the uncertainties associated with projections of regional climate change. Although the application of risk management to the potential impacts of climate change requires further investigation, elements of such a framework are identified, and include:

Identifying the critical climate-related thresholds that are important to industry and its operations (for example, a 1-in-100 year return tropical cyclone).

Using this understanding to analyse, and where possible quantify, industry’s pre-existing or baseline adaptive state through the use of sensitivity surfaces and quantified thresholds (for example, were facilities designed for a 1-in-100 event or a 1-in-500 year event?)

Establishing probabilistic statements or scenarios of climate that are relevant to industry practice (for example, risk of a storm surge may be more important to operations than elevated wind strength; if so, what is the probability that an event will exceed the design threshold during the lifetime of the facility?).

Bringing information on existing adaptive mechanisms together with climate scenarios to produce a quantitative risk assessment.

Deciding on risk treatment (additional adaptive measures).