Before the fire: predicting burn severity and potential post-fire debris-flow hazards to conservation populations of the Colorado River Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus)
Adam G. Wells
A * , Charles B. Yackulic A , Jaime Kostelnik B , Andy Bock C , Robert E. Zuellig C , Daren M. Carlisle D , James J. Roberts E , Kevin B. Rogers F and Seth M. Munson A
A
B
C
D
E
F
Abstract
Colorado River Cutthroat Trout (CRCT; Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus) conservation populations may be at risk from wildfire and post-fire debris flows hazards.
To predict burn severity and potential post-fire debris flow hazard classifications to CRCT conservation populations before wildfires occur.
We used remote sensing, spatial analyses, and machine learning to model 28 wildfire incidents (2016–2020) and spatially predict burn severity from pre-wildfire environmental factors to evaluate the likelihood (%) and volume (m3) hazard classification of post-fire debris flow.
Burn severity was best predicted by fuels, followed by topography, physical ecosystem conditions, and weather (mean adjusted R2 = 0.54). Predictions of high or moderate burn severity covered 1.1 (15% of study area) and 1.5 (19% of study area) million ha, respectively, and varied by watershed. Combined high or moderate debris flow hazard classification included 80% of stream reaches with conservation populations and 97% of conservation population point nodes.
Predicted burn severity and potential post-fire debris flow indicated moderate to high hazard for CRCT conservation populations native to the Green and Yampa rivers of the Upper Colorado River Basin.
Future management actions can incorporate predicted burn severity and potential post-fire debris flow to mitigate impacts to CRCT and other at-risk resource values before a wildfire occurs.
Keywords: burn severity, Colorado River Cutthroat Trout, differenced Normalised Burn Ratio (dNBR), machine learning, post-fire debris flow, Sentinel-2, stream reach, Upper Colorado River Basin, wildland fire.
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